Explanation
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28349. (Read 26609741 times)
April 09, 2014, 05:00:29 PM
April 09, 2014, 05:00:00 PM
Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday April 10
Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-04-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2717 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 441 USD.
Plot legend
This last Slumber data point was good (S = 0.0014, W = 0.963). It was about 70 CNY below the preceding trend line, but, since the previous point was rather weak (W = 0.545), it still seems valid to use a straight line fitted by least squares to the last three points; namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/07, A = 2791.80, B = -24.92.
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.16 CNY/USD (it was 6.16, 6.16, 6.15 at the last three Slumber Times).
Checking the previous prediction
Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-09, 03:24 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~15 hours later)
A rather embarassing miss:
Huobi's predicted price: 2808 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2734 CNY
Error: 74 CNY (~12 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 456 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 444 USD
Error: 12 USD
NOTE: "He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp posts -- for support rather than illumination." --Andrew Lang
Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-04-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2717 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 441 USD.
Plot legend
This last Slumber data point was good (S = 0.0014, W = 0.963). It was about 70 CNY below the preceding trend line, but, since the previous point was rather weak (W = 0.545), it still seems valid to use a straight line fitted by least squares to the last three points; namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/07, A = 2791.80, B = -24.92.
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.16 CNY/USD (it was 6.16, 6.16, 6.15 at the last three Slumber Times).
Checking the previous prediction
Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-09, 03:24 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~15 hours later)
A rather embarassing miss:
Huobi's predicted price: 2808 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2734 CNY
Error: 74 CNY (~12 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 456 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 444 USD
Error: 12 USD
NOTE: "He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp posts -- for support rather than illumination." --Andrew Lang
April 09, 2014, 04:53:15 PM
its over folks
bitcoin is dead.
bitcoin is dead.
Panic sold all my coins when i saw this.
April 09, 2014, 04:48:04 PM
its over folks
bitcoin is dead.
lol yep eiskalt killed BTC bitcoin is dead.
The bloodmoon will kill it. Bon Scott saw it and told everybody.
Shortly after this the CIA killed him.
Finally it all makes sense.
April 09, 2014, 04:41:55 PM
Relax guys, price will obviously go higher. Look at bitstamp:
- they are buy orders in value of 14.000 BTC in total from 440 down to 398 USD
- on the other hand they are sell orders in value of 4.698 BTC in total up to 484 USD (from 440 USD).
So basically, while people would buy 14.000 BTC by the time BTC would go down to 400, there is ONLY 4.698 BTC on the selling side up to 484 USD.
I think this says all: people are not willing to sell their bitcoins at this price, which is the correct attitude. Excepting some idiots who are selling (I think everybody's an idiot selling now), people are just holding. Imagine, 4.698 BTC for sale from the almost 13.000.000 on the market... that says a lot about it (and also about how stupid people selling at this price are).
- they are buy orders in value of 14.000 BTC in total from 440 down to 398 USD
- on the other hand they are sell orders in value of 4.698 BTC in total up to 484 USD (from 440 USD).
So basically, while people would buy 14.000 BTC by the time BTC would go down to 400, there is ONLY 4.698 BTC on the selling side up to 484 USD.
I think this says all: people are not willing to sell their bitcoins at this price, which is the correct attitude. Excepting some idiots who are selling (I think everybody's an idiot selling now), people are just holding. Imagine, 4.698 BTC for sale from the almost 13.000.000 on the market... that says a lot about it (and also about how stupid people selling at this price are).
1. Those bid walls are mostly fake. They get pulled when the price moves towards them.
2. Those bid walls are mostly fake. As soon as you see a fast enough upswing move, you'll see bid walls disappear and ask walls being placed against the move.
Why is that?
A. (Bots) To catch crazy market orders. E.g. if someone sells 14k coins the market will bounce quickly and the bots make profit from catching the market order and selling back higher.
B. (Manipulators) To manipulate the simpletons into believing that support/resistance are stronger than they actually are. So the price moves in the opposite direction of the wall and the manipulator can lower the slippage of his real move, e.g. he can sell at a higher price than his bid wall or buy at a lower price than his ask wall.
Am I right?
April 09, 2014, 04:40:36 PM
and I thought China would be the doom of BTC 
April 09, 2014, 04:40:28 PM
April 09, 2014, 04:40:17 PM
its over folks
bitcoin is dead.
bitcoin is dead.
wow , seriously adam ?
Perhaps he is just trying to get us to the point of "despair" so we can finally move up again?
April 09, 2014, 04:39:00 PM
its over folks
bitcoin is dead.
lol yep eiskalt killed BTC bitcoin is dead.
April 09, 2014, 04:37:54 PM
its over folks
bitcoin is dead.
bitcoin is dead.
wow , seriously adam ?
April 09, 2014, 04:37:15 PM
Relax guys, price will obviously go higher. Look at bitstamp:
- they are buy orders in value of 14.000 BTC in total from 440 down to 398 USD
- on the other hand they are sell orders in value of 4.698 BTC in total up to 484 USD (from 440 USD).
So basically, while people would buy 14.000 BTC by the time BTC would go down to 400, there is ONLY 4.698 BTC on the selling side up to 484 USD.
I think this says all: people are not willing to sell their bitcoins at this price, which is the correct attitude. Excepting some idiots who are selling (I think everybody's an idiot selling now), people are just holding. Imagine, 4.698 BTC for sale from the almost 13.000.000 on the market... that says a lot about it (and also about how stupid people selling at this price are).
I am sure that by the end of 2014 BTC will be at least 2-3.000 USD.
- they are buy orders in value of 14.000 BTC in total from 440 down to 398 USD
- on the other hand they are sell orders in value of 4.698 BTC in total up to 484 USD (from 440 USD).
So basically, while people would buy 14.000 BTC by the time BTC would go down to 400, there is ONLY 4.698 BTC on the selling side up to 484 USD.
I think this says all: people are not willing to sell their bitcoins at this price, which is the correct attitude. Excepting some idiots who are selling (I think everybody's an idiot selling now), people are just holding. Imagine, 4.698 BTC for sale from the almost 13.000.000 on the market... that says a lot about it (and also about how stupid people selling at this price are).
I am sure that by the end of 2014 BTC will be at least 2-3.000 USD.
Order book is completely meaningless. Large holders on both sides are just manipulating you. If your analysis goes no deeper than this, I hope you are not a trader.
April 09, 2014, 04:36:55 PM
its over folks
bitcoin is dead.
bitcoin is dead.
April 09, 2014, 04:34:24 PM
"If You Want Blood (You Got It)"
It's criminal
There ought to be a law
Criminal
There ought to be a whole lot more
You get nothin' for nothin'
Tell me who can you trust
We got what you want
And you got the lust
If you want blood, you got it
If you want blood, you got it
Blood on the streets
Blood on the rocks
Blood in the gutter
Every last drop
You want blood
You got it
Yes you have
It's animal
Livin' in the human zoo
Animal
The shit that they toss to you
Feelin' like a christian
Locked in a cage
Thrown to the lions
On the second page
If you want blood, you got it
If you want blood, you got it
Blood on the street
Blood on the rocks
Blood in the gutter
Every last drop
You want blood
You got it
O positive
Blood on the rocks
Blood on the streets
Blood in the sky
Blood on the sheets
If you want blood
You got it
I want you to bleed for me
If you want blood, you got it
If you want blood, you got it
If you want blood, you got it
If you want blood, you got it
----------------------------------------------------
Wow, AC/DC knew about bitcoin in 1978.
R.I.P. Bon Scott (and of course bitcoin)
It's criminal
There ought to be a law
Criminal
There ought to be a whole lot more
You get nothin' for nothin'
Tell me who can you trust
We got what you want
And you got the lust
If you want blood, you got it
If you want blood, you got it
Blood on the streets
Blood on the rocks
Blood in the gutter
Every last drop
You want blood
You got it
Yes you have
It's animal
Livin' in the human zoo
Animal
The shit that they toss to you
Feelin' like a christian
Locked in a cage
Thrown to the lions
On the second page
If you want blood, you got it
If you want blood, you got it
Blood on the street
Blood on the rocks
Blood in the gutter
Every last drop
You want blood
You got it
O positive
Blood on the rocks
Blood on the streets
Blood in the sky
Blood on the sheets
If you want blood
You got it
I want you to bleed for me
If you want blood, you got it
If you want blood, you got it
If you want blood, you got it
If you want blood, you got it
----------------------------------------------------
Wow, AC/DC knew about bitcoin in 1978.
R.I.P. Bon Scott (and of course bitcoin)
April 09, 2014, 04:33:04 PM
On the topic of mining, I can envision that some day in the future, hopefully before the time when/if big miners get discouraged, that I will start seeing "Bitcoin Inside" logos on computer boxes when I go to my local computer store. The only thing the customer buying the computer needs to know is that the "Bitcoin Inside" logo means that they are supporting the network.
I know I'm dreaming, but I can see a time when every home computer will eventually have some kind of low power mining device (maybe with an energy and speed rating). And, I know I'm dating myself here, but I am reminded of the early days when computers started selling with modems preinstalled. This mining device could just mine completely transparent and separate form any OS on the system, and even be configured to always stay on. Maybe this device could charge up some hardware wallet or bitcoin stick that comes with the computer from the processed transactions and rewards if any. Large companies could configure all the proceeds from mining done by the computers in their employees cubicles to go into the company wallet.
In short, even if large miners become so disincentivised that they stop mining altogether, it doesn't mean that there are no other scenarios that will play out to keep the current bitcoin network alive for many years. And hopefully this would be a gradual and less painless process than we are imagining now.
Interesting thought lol, as you know the mining business.. especially for BTC and the network of course is in a true arms race now,. The only ones I see really profiting continually will be those who are selling hashing shares with a ton of fee's or the lucky few who buy enough mining power to make a quick buck before difficulty renders their machines useless. I don't see any individuals making a true return in the long haul,,,, kinda like a money pit. BUT the ONLY thing that will keep people involved in the mining for BTC is if the actual value rockets as like when over 900 for weeks earlier,, then even the small miner whether cloud hashing or rig hashing, can see a profit,,, then if it went to 14,000 a coin then everyone's mining and happy :0 I know I'm dreaming, but I can see a time when every home computer will eventually have some kind of low power mining device (maybe with an energy and speed rating). And, I know I'm dating myself here, but I am reminded of the early days when computers started selling with modems preinstalled. This mining device could just mine completely transparent and separate form any OS on the system, and even be configured to always stay on. Maybe this device could charge up some hardware wallet or bitcoin stick that comes with the computer from the processed transactions and rewards if any. Large companies could configure all the proceeds from mining done by the computers in their employees cubicles to go into the company wallet.
In short, even if large miners become so disincentivised that they stop mining altogether, it doesn't mean that there are no other scenarios that will play out to keep the current bitcoin network alive for many years. And hopefully this would be a gradual and less painless process than we are imagining now.
April 09, 2014, 04:31:28 PM
Relax guys, price will obviously go higher. Look at bitstamp:
- they are buy orders in value of 14.000 BTC in total from 440 down to 398 USD
- on the other hand they are sell orders in value of 4.698 BTC in total up to 484 USD (from 440 USD).
So basically, while people would buy 14.000 BTC by the time BTC would go down to 400, there is ONLY 4.698 BTC on the selling side up to 484 USD.
I think this says all: people are not willing to sell their bitcoins at this price, which is the correct attitude. Excepting some idiots who are selling (I think everybody's an idiot selling now), people are just holding. Imagine, 4.698 BTC for sale from the almost 13.000.000 on the market... that says a lot about it (and also about how stupid people selling at this price are).
I am sure that by the end of 2014 BTC will be at least 2-3.000 USD.
- they are buy orders in value of 14.000 BTC in total from 440 down to 398 USD
- on the other hand they are sell orders in value of 4.698 BTC in total up to 484 USD (from 440 USD).
So basically, while people would buy 14.000 BTC by the time BTC would go down to 400, there is ONLY 4.698 BTC on the selling side up to 484 USD.
I think this says all: people are not willing to sell their bitcoins at this price, which is the correct attitude. Excepting some idiots who are selling (I think everybody's an idiot selling now), people are just holding. Imagine, 4.698 BTC for sale from the almost 13.000.000 on the market... that says a lot about it (and also about how stupid people selling at this price are).
I am sure that by the end of 2014 BTC will be at least 2-3.000 USD.
The orderbooks cant be taken too seriously. You'll see some really big rises come from times of an awful looking orderbook and of course vice versa.
\
April 09, 2014, 04:28:00 PM
Relax guys, price will obviously go higher. Look at bitstamp:
- they are buy orders in value of 14.000 BTC in total from 440 down to 398 USD
- on the other hand they are sell orders in value of 4.698 BTC in total up to 484 USD (from 440 USD).
So basically, while people would buy 14.000 BTC by the time BTC would go down to 400, there is ONLY 4.698 BTC on the selling side up to 484 USD.
I think this says all: people are not willing to sell their bitcoins at this price, which is the correct attitude. Excepting some idiots who are selling (I think everybody's an idiot selling now), people are just holding. Imagine, 4.698 BTC for sale from the almost 13.000.000 on the market... that says a lot about it (and also about how stupid people selling at this price are).
I am sure that by the end of 2014 BTC will be at least 2-3.000 USD.
- they are buy orders in value of 14.000 BTC in total from 440 down to 398 USD
- on the other hand they are sell orders in value of 4.698 BTC in total up to 484 USD (from 440 USD).
So basically, while people would buy 14.000 BTC by the time BTC would go down to 400, there is ONLY 4.698 BTC on the selling side up to 484 USD.
I think this says all: people are not willing to sell their bitcoins at this price, which is the correct attitude. Excepting some idiots who are selling (I think everybody's an idiot selling now), people are just holding. Imagine, 4.698 BTC for sale from the almost 13.000.000 on the market... that says a lot about it (and also about how stupid people selling at this price are).
I am sure that by the end of 2014 BTC will be at least 2-3.000 USD.
Yea i'm just getting itchy
Bitcoin better go up pretty soon though.
April 09, 2014, 04:24:01 PM
Relax guys, price will obviously go higher. Look at bitstamp:
- they are buy orders in value of 14.000 BTC in total from 440 down to 398 USD
- on the other hand they are sell orders in value of 4.698 BTC in total up to 484 USD (from 440 USD).
So basically, while people would buy 14.000 BTC by the time BTC would go down to 400, there is ONLY 4.698 BTC on the selling side up to 484 USD.
I think this says all: people are not willing to sell their bitcoins at this price, which is the correct attitude. Excepting some idiots who are selling (I think everybody's an idiot selling now), people are just holding. Imagine, 4.698 BTC for sale from the almost 13.000.000 on the market... that says a lot about it (and also about how stupid people selling at this price are).
I am sure that by the end of 2014 BTC will be at least 2-3.000 USD.
- they are buy orders in value of 14.000 BTC in total from 440 down to 398 USD
- on the other hand they are sell orders in value of 4.698 BTC in total up to 484 USD (from 440 USD).
So basically, while people would buy 14.000 BTC by the time BTC would go down to 400, there is ONLY 4.698 BTC on the selling side up to 484 USD.
I think this says all: people are not willing to sell their bitcoins at this price, which is the correct attitude. Excepting some idiots who are selling (I think everybody's an idiot selling now), people are just holding. Imagine, 4.698 BTC for sale from the almost 13.000.000 on the market... that says a lot about it (and also about how stupid people selling at this price are).
I am sure that by the end of 2014 BTC will be at least 2-3.000 USD.
April 09, 2014, 04:23:18 PM
lol
Still would be hodling my cold storage though, which is about 70%
Still would be hodling my cold storage though, which is about 70%
April 09, 2014, 04:21:25 PM
Fuck... seriously considering shorting for the worst case scenario
You´re welcome
You don´t have to sell BTC to short.
Of course i recommend sodl/shotr as always.
April 09, 2014, 04:20:29 PM
I can smell it
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