Fuck... seriously considering shorting for the worst case scenario
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28350. (Read 26609741 times)
April 09, 2014, 04:18:33 PM
April 09, 2014, 04:15:45 PM
On the topic of mining, I can envision that some day in the future, hopefully before the time when/if big miners get discouraged, that I will start seeing "Bitcoin Inside" logos on computer boxes when I go to my local computer store. The only thing the customer buying the computer needs to know is that the "Bitcoin Inside" logo means that they are supporting the network.
I know I'm dreaming, but I can see a time when every home computer will eventually have some kind of low power mining device (maybe with an energy and speed rating). And, I know I'm dating myself here, but I am reminded of the early days when computers started selling with modems preinstalled. This mining device could just mine completely transparent and separate form any OS on the system, and even be configured to always stay on. Maybe this device could charge up some hardware wallet or bitcoin stick that comes with the computer from the processed transactions and rewards if any. Large companies could configure all the proceeds from mining done by the computers in their employees cubicles to go into the company wallet.
In short, even if large miners become so disincentivised that they stop mining altogether, it doesn't mean that there are no other scenarios that will play out to keep the current bitcoin network alive for many years. And hopefully this would be a gradual and less painless process than we are imagining now.
I know I'm dreaming, but I can see a time when every home computer will eventually have some kind of low power mining device (maybe with an energy and speed rating). And, I know I'm dating myself here, but I am reminded of the early days when computers started selling with modems preinstalled. This mining device could just mine completely transparent and separate form any OS on the system, and even be configured to always stay on. Maybe this device could charge up some hardware wallet or bitcoin stick that comes with the computer from the processed transactions and rewards if any. Large companies could configure all the proceeds from mining done by the computers in their employees cubicles to go into the company wallet.
In short, even if large miners become so disincentivised that they stop mining altogether, it doesn't mean that there are no other scenarios that will play out to keep the current bitcoin network alive for many years. And hopefully this would be a gradual and less painless process than we are imagining now.
April 09, 2014, 04:12:58 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs
FWIW, I think bitcoin is really under-priced right now, but I also know that Keynes was right when he said that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I need to position myself to take advantage of that irrationality should it continue rather than be at it's mercy.
FWIW, I think bitcoin is really under-priced right now, but I also know that Keynes was right when he said that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I need to position myself to take advantage of that irrationality should it continue rather than be at it's mercy.
April 09, 2014, 04:01:22 PM
Looking at the volume, it appears to be one of the tremors before the big quake. The recovery to $445 is on no volume at all. I pulled one of my re-buy orders until I find out what the hell is going on. How can there be that many limit buy orders with no market-order buying?
There appears to be much expectation for a major liquidity event in the downward direction. There is a minute chance that this is a head-fake by whales, but I seriously doubt it.
If you can't spot the sucker at the poker table, then you are the sucker. I'm folding my hand to conserve chips.
There appears to be much expectation for a major liquidity event in the downward direction. There is a minute chance that this is a head-fake by whales, but I seriously doubt it.
If you can't spot the sucker at the poker table, then you are the sucker. I'm folding my hand to conserve chips.
What's that mean, exactly?
I thought that you were all in Fiat at $456 or $458 or something like that.
So at this point, you could buy some BTC back at a profit, no? and then if we dip lower, buy some more... unless you are saying that you are just going to sit out this roller coaster (a kind of train) in fiat?
Personally, I would rather sit it out in BTC, but each of us have our own levels of diversification or hedge.
A 6$ profit after a $600 drop from the ATH? Yeah, I'll get right on that.
That's just it. Since most of my holdings are in cold storage, I'm using my trading stash as a hedge right now. I've seen bitcoin prices go stupid high and stupid low. They are low now, but they aren't stupid low, considering China AND Gox. I'm a Bitcoin true believer, but I think that works against me as a day trader. I'm trying to zero out my bias, but I may be overdoing it. I don't know what to do. I suspect that these buy walls are not there out of demand for cheap coins, but out of fear of a further drop. There is almost nothing on the other side of $400.
Why would anyone put in orders below $400, when the probability of such seems so low and also, seems that they have to get through the supra $400 walls first?
And, the truth of the matter, seems to be a broken record repeated theme that NONE of us really knows which way it is gonna go. We seemed to have gotten another $10 squeeze downward this morning, which caused me to buy a little more. I would be very surprised to see anything much below $420 - for more than a flash crash... ... but, yep, anything remains within the realm of possibilities.... including the suggestion that something fishy is up.. especially, if we have a mini dump .. and suspecting something else will follow from that.
I think the probability is 40% that we will go lower. rpietila thinks the probability is 30% and TERA thinks it is over 50% (eventually). There is a remote chance that an early adopter could dump and trigger a panic. I can't make a meaningful difference @ $400, but I can lower down. Consider me Black Swan insurance.
April 09, 2014, 04:00:29 PM
April 09, 2014, 03:47:16 PM
Looking at the volume, it appears to be one of the tremors before the big quake. The recovery to $445 is on no volume at all. I pulled one of my re-buy orders until I find out what the hell is going on. How can there be that many limit buy orders with no market-order buying?
There appears to be much expectation for a major liquidity event in the downward direction. There is a minute chance that this is a head-fake by whales, but I seriously doubt it.
If you can't spot the sucker at the poker table, then you are the sucker. I'm folding my hand to conserve chips.
There appears to be much expectation for a major liquidity event in the downward direction. There is a minute chance that this is a head-fake by whales, but I seriously doubt it.
If you can't spot the sucker at the poker table, then you are the sucker. I'm folding my hand to conserve chips.
What's that mean, exactly?
I thought that you were all in Fiat at $456 or $458 or something like that.
So at this point, you could buy some BTC back at a profit, no? and then if we dip lower, buy some more... unless you are saying that you are just going to sit out this roller coaster (a kind of train) in fiat?
Personally, I would rather sit it out in BTC, but each of us have our own levels of diversification or hedge.
A 6$ profit after a $600 drop from the ATH? Yeah, I'll get right on that.
That's just it. Since most of my holdings are in cold storage, I'm using my trading stash as a hedge right now. I've seen bitcoin prices go stupid high and stupid low. They are low now, but they aren't stupid low, considering China AND Gox. I'm a Bitcoin true believer, but I think that works against me as a day trader. I'm trying to zero out my bias, but I may be overdoing it. I don't know what to do. I suspect that these buy walls are not there out of demand for cheap coins, but out of fear of a further drop. There is almost nothing on the other side of $400.
dont look at the wall, there's MASSIVE support under 400 its just not shown,
i have no bids under 400
but i will buy under 400 if we go there.
I have orders in for 20,000 bitcoins if it drops below 10 cents. Hey, it's happened before.
April 09, 2014, 03:45:53 PM
OK, the "news" moved the market down, but nobody is really moving it back up.
People are still questioning the validity of it. In these types of events I tend to use Twitter to monitor sentiment, I know when capitulation is coming as the amount of questions and articles around the subject slow down, which in turn makes people forget, or at least puts them at ease.
If you check Twitter at the moment there's a regular surge of "Is this real?" Was a few hours back when it first posted and is now doing the rounds again, likely because of difference in time zones.
We'll see what the Chinese have to say when they wake up, I am sure the merchant bank will get asked the same questions and someone will post something else.
April 09, 2014, 03:43:52 PM
OK, the "news" moved the market down, but nobody is really moving it back up.
April 09, 2014, 03:30:13 PM
April 09, 2014, 03:28:47 PM
April 09, 2014, 03:22:55 PM
Was fonzie du bist ein Deutscher?
I just admire their art of brewing beer and playing football.
Edit:
我只是很佩服釀造啤酒和踢足球的他們的藝術。(sell sell sell)
April 09, 2014, 03:20:28 PM
April 09, 2014, 03:16:34 PM
Looking at the volume, it appears to be one of the tremors before the big quake. The recovery to $445 is on no volume at all. I pulled one of my re-buy orders until I find out what the hell is going on. How can there be that many limit buy orders with no market-order buying?
There appears to be much expectation for a major liquidity event in the downward direction. There is a minute chance that this is a head-fake by whales, but I seriously doubt it.
If you can't spot the sucker at the poker table, then you are the sucker. I'm folding my hand to conserve chips.
There appears to be much expectation for a major liquidity event in the downward direction. There is a minute chance that this is a head-fake by whales, but I seriously doubt it.
If you can't spot the sucker at the poker table, then you are the sucker. I'm folding my hand to conserve chips.
What's that mean, exactly?
I thought that you were all in Fiat at $456 or $458 or something like that.
So at this point, you could buy some BTC back at a profit, no? and then if we dip lower, buy some more... unless you are saying that you are just going to sit out this roller coaster (a kind of train) in fiat?
Personally, I would rather sit it out in BTC, but each of us have our own levels of diversification or hedge.
A 6$ profit after a $600 drop from the ATH? Yeah, I'll get right on that.
That's just it. Since most of my holdings are in cold storage, I'm using my trading stash as a hedge right now. I've seen bitcoin prices go stupid high and stupid low. They are low now, but they aren't stupid low, considering China AND Gox. I'm a Bitcoin true believer, but I think that works against me as a day trader. I'm trying to zero out my bias, but I may be overdoing it. I don't know what to do. I suspect that these buy walls are not there out of demand for cheap coins, but out of fear of a further drop. There is almost nothing on the other side of $400.
Why would anyone put in orders below $400, when the probability of such seems so low and also, seems that they have to get through the supra $400 walls first?
And, the truth of the matter, seems to be a broken record repeated theme that NONE of us really knows which way it is gonna go. We seemed to have gotten another $10 squeeze downward this morning, which caused me to buy a little more. I would be very surprised to see anything much below $420 - for more than a flash crash... ... but, yep, anything remains within the realm of possibilities.... including the suggestion that something fishy is up.. especially, if we have a mini dump .. and suspecting something else will follow from that.
April 09, 2014, 03:07:02 PM
the thing is china banning all of bitcoin is not the end of bitcoin, its not even the end of bitcoin in china!
bitcoin will be underground in china big deal
thats all been priced in, if you sell now because china, you can't trade
bitcoin will be underground in china big deal
thats all been priced in, if you sell now because china, you can't trade
when something banned, price go up. not bad at all
April 09, 2014, 03:04:53 PM
Can we expect some solid?
April 09, 2014, 03:00:28 PM
April 09, 2014, 02:57:27 PM
MAX SHORTAGE MAX PROFIT
It´s not to late to be an early adopter of BTC shorting
We are the new wealty ELITE!
What software / exchange do you use to short? can you do it on metatrader via btce?
Yes via Metatrader on BTC-e or quick and easy with leverage on Bitfinex, they are workin through Bitstamp´s orderbook
April 09, 2014, 02:56:21 PM
MAX SHORTAGE MAX PROFIT
It´s not to late to be an early adopter of BTC shorting
We are the new wealty ELITE!
What software / exchange do you use to short? can you do it on metatrader via btce?
April 09, 2014, 02:54:46 PM
the thing is china banning all of bitcoin is not the end of bitcoin, its not even the end of bitcoin in china!
bitcoin will be underground in china big deal
thats all been priced in, if you sell now because china, you can't trade
bitcoin will be underground in china big deal
thats all been priced in, if you sell now because china, you can't trade
April 09, 2014, 02:54:06 PM
^ i see the attention whore going full retard again
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