Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28399. (Read 26608321 times)

I like how they have GWB on the left (our right) and JFK on the right.

in theory, it has huge intrinsic value. but it needs the infrastructure, which it doesn't have right now. I cant think of a single use of bitcoin that can support a price of more than, say, $50 today. speculators exiting the market would crush that price support.

I used to enjoy your TA posts, but ever since you turned bear they've gotten so nasty and bitter, that they just make me cringe 

Btc is worth $10k alone on notary.. now add other use cases.. speculative is a special word here.

Explanation

That's where being "omnisubtle"  comes in handy. 

Haha

Yes. There's also no way all these presidents were alive and hanging out together. It is a painting, after all... you can't get too literal because it's clearly not meant as such.

For such amount you can't ignore the slippage

Why do you bother with this guy? Every post he makes about how we are going down is because of his need to buy cheaper coins. You could basically say he's trolling.  There is no point in argueing with him. He can't give you any real reasons why we would go down.

Milling herd outside the door,
One by one each bear turns,
sharp, eyes white with fear,
sees, the writing on the wall,

How much would God make by trading bitcoin?

God is the best day trader because, being omniscent, He can see all the way into the future, and thus He knows when to buy and sell for maximum profit.  (Being omnipotent, He could also manipulate the price at will, but being omnihonest He would not do it.  On the other hand, being omnisubtle, He can buy and sell as much as He wants without disturbing the order book.)

Suppose that God decided to start trading BTC versus USD on Nov/29, 2013 00:00, a little before the all-time high. Suppose that He started with 1000 USD, and (out of habit) did at most one trade per day, at the day's weighted mean price (total USD traded that day, divided by total BTC traded).  If He aimed to maximize his USD account at 2014-04-01 23:59, what would He do, and how much would He have at the end?

Unless the Devil put bugs in my code, this would be His strategy:

This plot shows how much USD (green) or BTC (orange) He would have at the start of each day.  By this strategy, He would end up with about 8,901.88 USD, that is, almost 9 times his starting capital -- even though the BTC price went mostly down from that day.

If he started instead with just one dollar on Dec/24, 2011 00:00 (when my Bitstamp data file begins), he would do this:

and He would end up with a bit more than 8.672 million USD.

Of course He could make MUCH higher profits if He traded once every hour, or every minute. Figuring out how much is left as a penance for the sinners.

Recipe (for GNU/Linux)
Scripts and data files

bulls and bears in despair.. while the hodlers debate how many coins a stash really needs

cheerio carry on market, carry on.

Explanation

we may have a stand off on our hands with this wedge. any move through 3000Y would be significant. looking for signs of failure too.

The price would not be 450 USD if everyone was expecting a rally...

We are probably months away from a rally. Which does not mean we'll see new lows.

This is a strong hands Vs weak hands game. Chances are that after a long sideways movement we will be moving upwards (because those who started this already got their share). I've often mentioned here that the USD/BTC price is "handled" by "institutions" without ANY regulative authority to prevent them from performing fraud. They could lie for almost about everything and call it "bot movement". Besides the biggest USD/BTC transactions happen offline.

Just my BTC0.00000002

I said - the speculative weight will bring it down. all the capital is speculative. 99%. if this asset is not performing in 6 months time, the crash will self perpetuate to zero. by then investors could afford to replace it with a new coin. google could pounce on the opportunity, for example. Ripple (although inferior) might hold the fort until bitcoin is dead.

Why are there only two cases and why do you believe that a downwards move from here is the end of bitcoin? It could very well recover in some years time.

I'm not thinking in the line of hope of new ATH currently. When it happens, it will happen.

Right now I want China crap to disappear so I could trade 10-15% moves without fear of them jumping on my neck.. until it explodes again.

I have enough capital now to make a nice living from 5-10% monthly profit (well, unless some exchange runs with my money, lol).

... It could be that bitcoin is coming to it's end.
I think there are two fundamental arguments here.

- bearish case bitcoin prices are artificially high (MtGox) and nobody is really interested => the price will fall.  If the base infrastructure cant develop fast enough to save it, the speculative weight will kill it for good. This will likely be decided in 6 months time or so.

- bullish case. chinese demand drove the market to genuine highs. The ban on third party deposits is thus a very short term problem because it takes insignificant funds to reach fresh ATHs and infrastructure is evidently developing at an exponential rate outside of china. Exchanges and investment vehicles opening in Europe and USA will thus easily support and drive the price to new ATH in the next 6 months. Investors will not allow each other to let the price fall too far in this case.

I think the bullish case is true. bears are running out of time quickly before a nice surprise comes along.