Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28413. (Read 26608075 times)

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

Thanks seleme i appreciate it

Huobi's going nuts. If bitfinex follows, I'm going to make bank.

EMA is sum of closing prices of some number of days divided by that number of days. So currently 300 EMA is around 465 and acts s resistance last 4 days. It acted as support for 2 days after first Chinese crap came in some 2 weeks ago.

I do expect this resistance to be violated soon though unless China drops another set of crap news.

Not quite...

It is a fact that Huobi's volume is very low around 03:00 am local time. (OKCoin has a steady background traffic that does not disappear even at those times, may be fake volume.)

My impression (not yet verified quantitatively) is that the prices sampled daily at that time of the day are more likely to follow steady trends over successive days  than prices sampled at other hours, or even mean daily prices.   

It is my impression, also, that the price at that hour often deviates from the current trend whenever the trade volume is large at that hour, compared to the daily volume (i.e., when Huobi's clients stay up trading through the night).  However, the price sometimes returns to that trend on the next night, if Huobi's clients go to bed at the usual time.

These impressions are the basis of the "Chinese Slumber Method".  I look the price and volume around 03:00 am.  If the volume too high relative to the day's total volume, I ignore that data point (W near zero).  Then I try to fit a simple trend formula to the most recent good points (W near 1), either a straight line or a shifted exponential, and extrapolate it to predict the value at the next "slumber time".

At each day I must decide whether to continue with the previous trend or assume a trend break and start a new trend,  Bad "slumber points" are preferred trend break points.  Apart from this general principle, the choice of breaks is still subjective (but I hope to automate it, with dynamic programming, if Huobi does not collapse on April 15).

I do not believe that past prices by themselves are useful to predict future prices.  However, I believe that the price is influenced by certain "concrete" factors, such as the amount of money and coins in the exchange, or the general mood of the traders; and that these factors tend to change gradually over several days -- but suddenly at times, in response to news or new exchange policies.  The "Chinese Slumber" method tries to determine the price trends determined by those "concrete" factors.

I don't know why the "slumber prices" should follow the trend more faithfully than prices sampled at other times (if they indeed do).  One guess is that most traders return to their "base positions" (their preferred ratios of CNY:BTC in their accounts) before going to bed; and those moves somehow cause the price to drift back to the "ideal" price determined by the "concrete" factors.  Whereas, during the day they may deviate considerably from those positions, thus adding "noise" to the price.  But that is only a guess.
 

I think that these investors have already calculated a pattern in which no matter what - on average, and if you play the odds of averages, BTC prices are lower on the weekends, and that they do NOT want to show their hands regarding the quantity of their fiat and that their fiat is going to leverage a lot more on the weekends, as well...

I don't mean to sound like a nub (which I am) but could someone please explain me these EMA resistance, what they mean and other lingo like this.  I read the forums and I don't understand this.  

Also is there any links you could direct me to (speculation etc....i know btcpredictions, bitcoinwisdom, bitcoinity, bitcointicker.co, tradingview.....am i missing any)
thanks

1 day 300 EMA resistance holds for 4th day in a row.

A Martingale strategy works, so long as the win amount is equal to the bet and the odds are 50/50.  With a 1 dollar bet, you are very likely to win your 1 back dollar bet back before you get anywhere near $1000.  If the odds are 50/50, then you would have to lose 7 times in a row, to reach into the $100 arena... highly unlikely if the odds truly are 50/50.. the trick in that regard is making sure that you do NOT miscalculate the odds.

well said.  I agree 100%

the only thing that's driving these uptrends is fear of loss and consolidation.

I have the ability to double 4X before margin shorting. Margin shorting is extremely risky and I'll only do it if the rally continues in a parabolic way. A slow steady rise on building volume will make me rethink market conditions.

Your analysis is colored (heavily) by your need to sell your bitcoins to cover your expenses. Too much emotion, not enough rationality.

Me?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

I have a difficult time envisioning a BTC dip to less than $425 on stamp in the next 18 hours, absent some additional negative news from China or wherever, and since people are saying that it is a holiday in China on Monday, we are less likely to get negative news or even clarification of any matters from China, until Tuesday.   

The reason that I doubt lower BTC price dips is b/c it seems that the China FUD (or whatever we are calling it these days) seems to have been milked to its utmost. 

To a large extent, there does NOT seem to be any major / material restrictions from fiat getting into exchanges from what was already speculated in early December. Surely it seems that some of the fiat funding avenues may have dried up, but the Chinese seem to have various alternative means to get fiat in and out of exchanges - at least the chinese people who are mostly into bitcoin... and let's face it... bitcoin in china is not trickling down to the masses of regular chinese people - instead, it is .01%-ish of the chinese population who are speculating with bitcoin in china - and these guys/gals are NOT likely going to be easily altered by a few restrictions, here and there... except to potentially cause some FUD, to the extent that any additional FUD can be milked out of these kinds of loosey goosey facts.

Looking at the trades, which maybe is a perverse hobby of mine, I am regularly surprised at how much fiat people have ready on the exchanges for buying in the weekends. Why wait? Why not just buy as soon as the fiat arrives. At least, why not put up an order somewhere below the latest price to take advantage of a dump?

1)trust in an exchange would have equal affect on fiat and bitcoin.

"2. Some people have become bearish about the long term future of bitcoin, and not just the short term trend." - thats just the way I like it.

3) - the bitcoins are gone too! and we know at least 200k are not going to hit the market for a long time = 200k shortage.

4) this is a constant.

Explanation

IMHO, most of the money from btc sales during this bear market has been withdrawn (or lost) and is not sitting on exchanges waiting to rebuy. This is because:
1. The drop has been fueled by a lack of trust in exchanges.
2. Some people have become bearish about the long term future of bitcoin, and not just the short term trend. Some reasons (not inclusive) : [government bans, regulations, tax laws]
3. Some exchanges have shut down and taken their customers' money with them, so the money is not available to reinvest.
4. The remaining exchanges have had functioning withdrawal methods (unlike gox in the summer).

Then I'll take their money because it's likely not going straight up from here. No Wall Street whale is going to dump tens of millions into a Hong Kong or Slovenian exchange. If they're buying now, they're buying from miners who haven't paid bills in four months. I myself am getting pretty damn sick of living on credit cards. I have good credit but it's not infinite. I don't think a bounce to $540 after a plunge from $1100 is going to instill much confidence in the face of Gox, China, Shrem, etc.

Look at what happened to the $710 whale. We all thought we were out of the woods. I did too. Those who don't learn from mistakes are doomed to repeat them.

Please don't shoot the messenger. I wish I had a better outlook. I'm sorry if this analysis is discomforting. OTOH, if you find it amusing, then by all means BUY BUY BUY! I like to get well paid for entertaining people.

The martingale fallacy is based on the fact that the human brain is not easily fathoming the speed with which an exponential function increases. You have to use your left brain for that, which takes some thought work.

Edit: And you also have to understand the limit of your betting power, and the limit for bets in the casino.

Edit2: And to top it up: Your only gain in the end, if you win before the limits, is the size of your first bet. So if you start low, to be able to go on for a large number of rounds, your win is also low. If you start a martingale series with a one dollar bet, and lose many times, you could end up putting thousands on the table, and if you win in the end, your gain is one dollar, the size of the first bet.