Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28522.

dreamspark

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Pruden on April 03, 2014, 04:16:31 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on April 03, 2014, 02:27:46 AM

Now its finally looking like a proper crash - LTC getting rekt'd, btc-e overdumping instead of juts blindly following china.

The only thing missing is the volume

I think you're reading volume the wrong way: The exchange market is very fragmented now, you need to add up the 3 largest for a proxy to what MtGox used to be for its whole history until about a year ago (90% market share).

24-hour volume is 120k in Bitstamp+Bitfinex+BTC-e: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

MtGox days with volume above 150k are few: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-08-01zeg2013-04-04ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Thus volume these days is actually quite large. Last thursday it was 160k by my count.

Therefore, this is the bottom. No one thinks the China blockade is a rumour anymore. Downside is exhausted.

Another thing is to look at the volume in $ terms.

Some of those days with gox with 150k of volume is when the price was like $50 or less. For the same $ amount at todays rate we would only need 19k btc volume...

BitDollars

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

Dark days but exciting to see which way she swings in next week or so.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3948

Merit: 11416

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: ?? on ??

Cute.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3948

Merit: 11416

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: TeeBone on April 03, 2014, 04:14:18 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 04:09:50 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 03, 2014, 04:01:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 03:50:14 AM

Quote from: bangersdad on April 03, 2014, 03:35:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 03:26:22 AM

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

so your not selling except when there may be some obvious downward action? what do you think the last couple of months have been?! Cheesy

hindsight is 20/20...

Even though I can see you are missing my point, I will provide further explanation.

I am NOT going to lock in losses, when the direction of the market is NOT clear to me and when my whole portfolio happens to be in the red.

I can already anticipate that you are going to want to do battle with this - b/c you seem to be assuming that the price direction was obvious.. which it was NOT.

How is the direction not clear to you? There is only one chart showing an uptrend now and that's the four year log chart. The odds of a whale hitting "market buy" at this time is infinitesimal unless he wants to see a short squeeze for shits and giggles and wants to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for the privilege. Whale limit orders near $400 are the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

I'm NOT selling at this point. I will buy again at $410 and $400... and I will wait to buy if I am sure that it is going down.

We come to varying conclusions about what to do, and mine seems to be different than yours. I hope you do NOT get left behind if we take off in the upward direction, rather than the downward direction. I'm feeling o.k. either way.

That 'dont get left behind' meme is seriously played out, guy. It worked for a whle, only suckers buy into that nowadays.

I'm NOT trying to persuade anyone. I participate in this thread in order to gain insight about my own strategies and to attempt to plan accordingly what would be the best plan forward for me, based on the current market situation and the various probabilities in light of my own holdings, risk aversion and diversification.

Did you want to explain more about your strategy and about your stake in the BTC arena in order that I can get a sense of your reasons for suggesting that I do something other than what I am doing?

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3948

Merit: 11416

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 03, 2014, 04:01:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 03:50:14 AM

Quote from: bangersdad on April 03, 2014, 03:35:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 03:26:22 AM

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

so your not selling except when there may be some obvious downward action? what do you think the last couple of months have been?! Cheesy

hindsight is 20/20...

Even though I can see you are missing my point, I will provide further explanation.

I am NOT going to lock in losses, when the direction of the market is NOT clear to me and when my whole portfolio happens to be in the red.

I can already anticipate that you are going to want to do battle with this - b/c you seem to be assuming that the price direction was obvious.. which it was NOT.

How is the direction not clear to you? There is only one chart showing an uptrend now and that's the four year log chart. The odds of a whale hitting "market buy" at this time is infinitesimal unless he wants to see a short squeeze for shits and giggles and wants to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for the privilege. Whale limit orders near $400 are the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

JayJuanGee is still in denial thinking we are gonna get a whale taking us to the moon again....we should see a change of the guard soon in the forum...where alot of the "to the moon brigade" go and nurse their wounds..

YOU appear to be in argument mode. I am NOT in denial.. I just have a strategy, which I believe that I already explained, and my strategy does NOT have to do with any whale, exactly, but instead a lack of confidence that selling is the right strategy, at this point. I am sure that there are various others following similar strategies as me.. Personal situations vary based on risk tolerance and the extent to which they may be diversified and budget and when they got in.. etc etc.. I am happy with my strategy in BTC and my overall investment strategy in life... I am NOT putting all my eggs in BTC, if that is what, in part, you seem to have within your assumption(s) about my investment situation.

So, tell me a little bit about your investment strategy and your financial position and when you got into BTC in order that I can know a bit more regarding your situation and your stake in the BTC arena.

Pruden

hero member

Activity: 496

Merit: 500

Spanish Bitcoin trader

Quote from: magicmexican on April 03, 2014, 02:27:46 AM

Now its finally looking like a proper crash - LTC getting rekt'd, btc-e overdumping instead of juts blindly following china.

The only thing missing is the volume

I think you're reading volume the wrong way: The exchange market is very fragmented now, you need to add up the 3 largest for a proxy to what MtGox used to be for its whole history until about a year ago (90% market share).

24-hour volume is 120k in Bitstamp+Bitfinex+BTC-e: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

MtGox days with volume above 150k are few: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-08-01zeg2013-04-04ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Thus volume these days is actually quite large. Last thursday it was 160k by my count.

Therefore, this is the bottom. No one thinks the China blockade is a rumour anymore. Downside is exhausted.

TeeBone

sr. member

Activity: 502

Merit: 251

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 04:09:50 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 03, 2014, 04:01:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 03:50:14 AM

Quote from: bangersdad on April 03, 2014, 03:35:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 03:26:22 AM

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

so your not selling except when there may be some obvious downward action? what do you think the last couple of months have been?! Cheesy

hindsight is 20/20...

Even though I can see you are missing my point, I will provide further explanation.

I am NOT going to lock in losses, when the direction of the market is NOT clear to me and when my whole portfolio happens to be in the red.

I can already anticipate that you are going to want to do battle with this - b/c you seem to be assuming that the price direction was obvious.. which it was NOT.

How is the direction not clear to you? There is only one chart showing an uptrend now and that's the four year log chart. The odds of a whale hitting "market buy" at this time is infinitesimal unless he wants to see a short squeeze for shits and giggles and wants to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for the privilege. Whale limit orders near $400 are the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

I'm NOT selling at this point. I will buy again at $410 and $400... and I will wait to buy if I am sure that it is going down.

We come to varying conclusions about what to do, and mine seems to be different than yours. I hope you do NOT get left behind if we take off in the upward direction, rather than the downward direction. I'm feeling o.k. either way.

That 'dont get left behind' meme is seriously played out, guy. It worked for a while, only suckers buy into that nowadays.

tazcatlicoatlus

full member

Activity: 171

Merit: 100

Quote from: spooderman on April 03, 2014, 03:46:13 AM

So I wake up and see this price?

My only comment:

o my god thank you for this hahaha

fonzie

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Moderator

BillieJean are you really about to start to spam the forum now with your clever bearish thoughts and that
you have seen this downtrend from a mile ago? Really?

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3948

Merit: 11416

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 03, 2014, 04:01:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 03:50:14 AM

Quote from: bangersdad on April 03, 2014, 03:35:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 03:26:22 AM

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

so your not selling except when there may be some obvious downward action? what do you think the last couple of months have been?! Cheesy

hindsight is 20/20...

Even though I can see you are missing my point, I will provide further explanation.

I am NOT going to lock in losses, when the direction of the market is NOT clear to me and when my whole portfolio happens to be in the red.

I can already anticipate that you are going to want to do battle with this - b/c you seem to be assuming that the price direction was obvious.. which it was NOT.

How is the direction not clear to you? There is only one chart showing an uptrend now and that's the four year log chart. The odds of a whale hitting "market buy" at this time is infinitesimal unless he wants to see a short squeeze for shits and giggles and wants to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for the privilege. Whale limit orders near $400 are the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

I'm NOT selling at this point. I will buy again at $410 and $400... and I will wait to buy if I am sure that it is going down.

We come to varying conclusions about what to do, and mine seems to be different than yours. I hope you do NOT get left behind if we take off in the upward direction, rather than the downward direction. I'm feeling o.k. either way.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3948

Merit: 11416

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: magicmexican on April 03, 2014, 04:00:31 AM

yawn another small bulltrap, this is getting old

It is like a rewind... to take another hit at the attempt to go down bit.

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

ya know what they say about wedges......

TeeBone

sr. member

Activity: 502

Merit: 251

Been short since the 900's, i just shorted the remainder of my exchange stack. This bitch is goin down, gonna get real ugly if 400 is breached which i think happens in the next week or so. Say hello to the first bitcoin suicides.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: magicmexican on April 03, 2014, 04:00:31 AM

yawn another small bulltrap, this is getting old

I think this is consolidation around 2500. I think we may rest here for a while. Party could be over for today?

billyjoeallen

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1007

Hide your women

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 03:50:14 AM

Quote from: bangersdad on April 03, 2014, 03:35:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 03, 2014, 03:26:22 AM

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

so your not selling except when there may be some obvious downward action? what do you think the last couple of months have been?! Cheesy

hindsight is 20/20...

Even though I can see you are missing my point, I will provide further explanation.

I am NOT going to lock in losses, when the direction of the market is NOT clear to me and when my whole portfolio happens to be in the red.

I can already anticipate that you are going to want to do battle with this - b/c you seem to be assuming that the price direction was obvious.. which it was NOT.

How is the direction not clear to you? There is only one chart showing an uptrend now and that's the four year log chart. The odds of a whale hitting "market buy" at this time is infinitesimal unless he wants to see a short squeeze for shits and giggles and wants to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for the privilege. Whale limit orders near $400 are the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

ChartBuddy

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 1823

1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation

magicmexican

hero member

Activity: 812

Merit: 1000

yawn another small bulltrap, this is getting old

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 03, 2014, 03:51:28 AM

Only two kind of buyers right now: people betting on a short squeeze and people buying and holding long term. When we are this close to major support and the down trend is this strong, any spike is likely to get slammed back down. The trend won't reverse unless support is breached or defended with massive volume.

I agree, but actually there is a third buyer - shorts covering for profit. Short margin is steadily decreasing today, making a short squeeze less likely. For instance, I am short a bunch, about half of which were triggered in profit taking. The other half is sitting there well in the profit. It was take a rally of epic proportions to squeeze me right now. In fact, if we rally for a day from here I will reload the boat when it starts losing momentum.

spooderman

legendary

Activity: 1680

Merit: 1045

I got bids placed all the way down to the 60s.

Never wanna miss an opportunity like those guys on btc-e had when it suddenly touched 100 a while back.

I'm going down with the ship!

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3948

Merit: 11416

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: N12 on April 03, 2014, 03:36:43 AM

It always feels like I read every one of ShroomKit's posts sometime before.

Sheep, idiots, panic-selling, ignore list.

I have only seen ignore list about three times, and one of them was me, and each time it makes nearly no sense that he placed someone on an ignore list that had been attempting to be responsive to him. Anyhow, to be quasi-positive about it, at least his posts are fairly short, so they are NOT too time consuming to get the gist of the FUD...

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