Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28811. (Read 26708219 times)

How do we know a lot of Chinese buy on credit?  Chinese traders buy mainly for its volatility (or rising price) . They liquidate because of low volatility rather than credit. Methinks. This seems also an explanation for very low volume. Make sense?

Well this feels like a good buy spot. I have no sceince to back my claim. Probably going to get 1 bitcoin tomorrow.

Average buy-in is also my buying policy. It seems USD 600 is fairly low but who knows to which area it will be heading down and how long it will last at that area?

 For example, if price goes down to area usd 300 and remain for 1 year, I will be very frustrated with my average buy-in policy, as my stock is already heavy, repeating last average shares compensate very little  to my cost, unless I increase average share by 3times or more. Regrettably my financial position does not allow 3x.

Does a simple average buy-in works on bitcoin?

You can only buy so much unless you are the Fed.

1010011010  (boo)

We'll see. Most BTC that was bought on credit will likely be liquidated. It could go either way, but if too many Chinks go broke, you will see liquidation of a lot of assets.
Cyprus cubed or divestiture. It'll be an interesting ride.

I think that a lot of us are in a similar situation with average BTC buy-ins  in the upper 600s and even in the 700s or higher.   I am currently at $686 average BTC buy-in rate - which includes my transaction fees, and even though I find it a little bit frustrating to be at this seemingly low BTC price level, I am continuing to use these low BTC prices as buying opportunities to buy more BTC than I had expected to be able to buy on a fairly regular basis... and gambling that ultimately the BTC fundamentals have NOT changed in a negative way and if anything on an ongoing basis the BTC fundamentals are getting more and more solid with more and more big investors coming into the BTC arena and nearly daily basis good news pertaining to more and more ways to liquidate BTC. 

Surely, we have a ways to go in ease of use of BTC and inspiring public confidence regarding security of their coins, but if you are into BTC for an 18 month to 24 month period or possibly more, we are going to be looking pretty pretty at that point b/c I have only been willing and able to invest so much fiat into BTC at any one time in the front end of my investment....   Accordingly, my quantity of BTC is much larger than what I had expected it to be, at this time.

101011

101010

BTC is so marginal that I don't think there's going to be much correlation between on-shore BTC and the on-shore credit market.
I would expect fear to drive acquisition of counter-party riskless assets, rather.

]I don't think the central banks are making the Smoot-Hawley mistake again.  The debasement is synchronized and cooperative, to avoid the appearance of relative inflation.  All the majors are on a rocketsled to zero.  100 of your zeros equals 50 of my zeros, now and forever.  See, the dollar is *strong*.

The PRC has an interest as a net exporter to maintain a weak currency. It will play hell with the Chinese importers of natural resources, however. We are possibly witnessing a collapse of their shadow banking industry which is leading to a scramble for liquidity. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-19/music-just-ended-wealthy-chinese-are-liquidating-offshore-luxury-homes-scramble-cashThis could trigger a BTC sell off.

Longer term, if the ChiComs take a page out of the Bernanke playbook when we had the Lehman Brothers collapse in the U.S., it could lead to  the next great bull market as the world engages in yet another round of competitive currency debasement.

Interesting article, and more evidence of a trend I've noticed: the media is beginning to paint a picture of a bipolar aristocracy:bankers vs tech innovators.  The bankers are a known quantify while tech innovators may be disruptive to the powers that be.    

I think the "opt-out" meme promoted by Balaji Srinivasan is very powerful and has ruffled some feathers.  It forces a rethinking of our shared mythology: do we need state-controlled money (why not bitcoin)?, how much meaning do those imaginary lines only visible on a map have (Crimea)?

Yay...err, no. I can see we're heading for under 600. FML, I bought at 670.

I daresay most scrypt miners are switch-mining and banking in BTC.   That devalues all other coins relative to BTC.  I will not sing sad songs over this.  It is just one more source of persistent, continual demand for BTC.

Hypothetically, if RMB drops faster than BTC, then BTC is going up, from the PRC perspective -- a bullish situation.

Actually RMB drops excruciatingly slowly, so no "wealth effect" is bandwagon-ing BTCCNY just yet.  However, in the longer term it is likely to occur.

It all depends on your perspective. Do you mean monetary contraction due to loans being paid off/written off? The answer is...compared to what? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-19/beef-prices-surge-most-decade-food-inflation-soars

The Fed may be tapering, but they are still at zero interest rates and quantitatively easing. It would be more accurate to say that the dollar is losing value at a slower rate than the Yuan.

How the hell does binary save space?

Given the isolated nature of the on-shore RMB market, I would be inclined to simply drop it from volume numbers.  If you could measure the fiat in-/out- flows, it would be informative, at least as a measure of sentiment in China, but what actual informative value does a costless swap between traders in a captive arena convey?  Call me unimaginative in this case, if you will, but I see none.

Yes, bitcoin volumes are very low relative to the recent manic and crash periods.  This is clearly good information.  It means that liquidity is poor on the exchanges.  This should not be surprising.  After the collapse of what was once the flagship exchange, hoi polloi are cautious and hesitant about using exchanges.  Much volume has moved off-exchange. New adopters with whom I have spoken recently purchased their coins via local transactions.  Certainly BIT has systematically sought to secure off-exchange supplies.  Hedge funds are purchasing subscriptions with miners now -- I have personal knowledge of such cases -- in part, in order to avoid exchanges.

To capture actual volumes of exchange one must go off-exchange, at this point.  Those numbers are more difficult to collect, but they remain transparent in the blockchain, if you can identify the corresponding transactions.

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So what if people stop providing free content to Youtube and Facebook? What does that have to do with Bitcoin? People use plastics and oil more than ever. The commoditization of Bitcoin is not a danger because it was designed as a commodity. Bitcoin adoption should be driven by utility more than fashion.