Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking &amp; discussion - page 28839. (Read 26630760 times)

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 12:12:55 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 17, 2014, 11:58:40 PM

Buy when everybody is pessimistic.

We might not be there yet but it's close.

How can we be close to pessimistic? Bitcoin was $100 a year ago. True despair-pessimism is a long WAY DOWN.

We've been through so many of these rally/corrections that we've learned to front-run the cycle, so it won't go that far down. It always seems different this time but in hindsight it's not.

or... the people who are front-running the "cycle" (which is an imaginary thing actually) are the only reason the price is as high as it is now, and this is just a dead cat bounce before it goes down again.

Dead cat bounce speculation is part of the cycle too. If Bitcoin was going to fail for any reason other than a superior technology rendering it obsolete, it would have failed by now. Anything else only delays without preventing the next ramp. Chinese and Russian hostility to crypto will have the effect of causing western policy makers to support it. The enemy of my enemy and all that.

Bitcoin doesn't need to "fail" for it to be grossly overpriced by speculators and for the speculation bubble to deflate. Refer to 2011. Think of it as a "supercycle".

The 2011 bubble saw an increase from 10 cents to 32 dollars! Proportionally speaking, the 18 month consolidation period before the next rally roughly equates to a three month consolidation period of about three to five months after a ramp from ~$150 to $1163. We are right on schedule.

What if the ramp was not from $150 to $1163, but from $15 to $1163, and there were 5 months in 2013 as an "intermission".

$32 is 320X $0.10 $1163 is 77.5X $15, so the wait until the next ATH should be only ~1/4th as long.

lyth0s

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Bitstamp prices now match btc-e prices as I stated

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5758585

I'll be doing another analysis of the market within the next two days or so. But I still expect the $550-590 range before we start another upward trend.

According to my graph below we are still at a higher price per bitcoin than would be predicted with an R squared of >0.9

JayJuanGee

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: arepo on March 17, 2014, 11:35:34 PM

Quote from: MAbtc on March 17, 2014, 11:30:24 PM

Quote from: arepo on March 17, 2014, 11:16:16 PM

it is not a "SIGNIFICANT MOVE" as far as bitcoin price action is concerned, but it carries information in the short-term.

Exactly. Earlier today when I posted a chart illustrating the support breach this morning and lack of pressure to fuel a strong bounce, I was told I was over-analyzing. And I thought, do people around here wait for a sell-off to conclude that the price might go down? I'm trying to close or accumulate position before that occurs....

yeah it seems many traders around here don't understand the idea of keeping ahead of the market. chasing the market is more obvious, but obviously less profitable Tongue

it also doesn't require empirical methods of constructing a workable signalling theory like the one i outlined in my last post. but then again, many traders here don't even "believe in" TA at all Wink

Why does it even matter if some traders have different points of view than you. So What...? Not everyone here is a day trader, and sometimes BTC movements take place based on factors other than trend lines. Surely, if I am fairly confident that a certain movement is going to take place, then I will act based on that confidence. One of the problems with bitcoin; however, is that one or two whales can change the direction - and especially catch the less experienced "traders" off guard (to the extent that some of us are still engaging in trading, in spite of proclamations to the contrary).

solex

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100 satoshis -> ISO code

Looks like a spike down to $575 imminent.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 18, 2014, 01:43:49 AM

China's slice of the total volume increased slightly from 88% to 89%.

Their zero fee exchanges can churn thousands more btc than normal fee charging exchanges. As you are a mathematician you will know that repetitive 0.2% slices will quickly whittle down any large amount being churned with a small probability of an edge.

Davyd05

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This seems more like that long squeeze, however...I just think somebody is picking up as many cheap coins as possible..those trying to kick start the markets with large buy orders could' have picked up more letting people dump em to them...add some of the low volume as of late and you get a prime time to squeeeeze

TERA

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Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 01:40:59 AM

Quote from: TERA on March 17, 2014, 11:00:56 PM

This is actually the worst order book (ratio) I have ever seen in Bitcoin. All of the gox orderbooks in apr-jul 2013 even at their worst looked better than this.

Are investors losing their passion or just keeping their money off the books.... b/c there could still be big investors planning to come into the bitcoin space, but NOT showing their cards at the moment... no?

You can speculate about 'big investors not showing their cards' with ANY bid, even with a large bid they can still be there. I'd much rather speculate about them being there with a 100M USD order book than a 12M USD order book - there would probably be more of them too. Speculating about something I can't see and speculating about sneaky buyers suddenly making an appearance to save me from falling off a cliff is not how I like to trade. Also, the tiny order book represents a lack of maturity in the current market. There should be more there whether there are hidden buyers or not.

JorgeStolfi

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Total trade volume today (Mon Mar/17 00:00--23:59 UTC) was ~144 kBTC. That is 87% more than yesterday's (77 kBTC), but still 43% less than last Monday Mar/10, and somewhat below the average of recent weeks.

Trade volume outside China more than doubled (from 8.2 to 18 kBTC) but is still 46% less than last Monday's. Bitstamp's almost tripled (from 3.30 to 9.17), but BTC-e's grew only 49% (to 3.90 kBTC). Bitfinex 's volume almost doubled (from 1.90 to 3.76) and almost caught up with BTC-e, but is still only 30% of its volume last Monday.

Trade volume in China increased 83% since yesterday (from 69 to 126 kBTC) but is still 58% of last Monday's. Huobi recovered its lead over OKCoin (51% versus 47% of China's volume, respectively).

China's slice of the total volume increased slightly from 88% to 89%.

EDIT: that is on the exchanges that I monitor (see my previous post). Are there any significant exchanges besides those?

JayJuanGee

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: TERA on March 17, 2014, 11:00:56 PM

This is actually the worst order book (ratio) I have ever seen in Bitcoin. All of the gox orderbooks in apr-jul 2013 even at their worst looked better than this.

Are investors losing their passion or just keeping their money off the books.... b/c there could still be big investors planning to come into the bitcoin space, but NOT showing their cards at the moment... no?

TERA

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 01:37:52 AM

Quote from: TERA on March 18, 2014, 01:30:45 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 01:27:50 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 12:12:55 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 17, 2014, 11:58:40 PM

Buy when everybody is pessimistic.

We might not be there yet but it's close.

How can we be close to pessimistic? Bitcoin was $100 a year ago. True despair-pessimism is a long WAY DOWN.

We've been through so many of these rally/corrections that we've learned to front-run the cycle, so it won't go that far down. It always seems different this time but in hindsight it's not.

or... the people who are front-running the "cycle" (which is an imaginary thing actually) are the only reason the price is as high as it is now, and this is just a dead cat bounce before it goes down again.

Dead cat bounce speculation is part of the cycle too. If Bitcoin was going to fail for any reason other than a superior technology rendering it obsolete, it would have failed by now. Anything else only delays without preventing the next ramp. Chinese and Russian hostility to crypto will have the effect of causing western policy makers to support it. The enemy of my enemy and all that.

Bitcoin doesn't need to "fail" for it to be grossly overpriced by speculators and for the speculation bubble to deflate. Refer to 2011. Think of it as a "supercycle".

The 2011 bubble saw an increase from 10 cents to 32 dollars! Proportionally speaking, the 18 month consolidation period before the next rally roughly equates to a three month consolidation period of about three to five months after a ramp from ~$150 to $1163. We are right on schedule.

What if the ramp was not from $150 to $1163, but from $15 to $1163, and there were 5 months in 2013 as an "intermission".

billyjoeallen

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Quote from: TERA on March 18, 2014, 01:30:45 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 01:27:50 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 12:12:55 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 17, 2014, 11:58:40 PM

Buy when everybody is pessimistic.

We might not be there yet but it's close.

How can we be close to pessimistic? Bitcoin was $100 a year ago. True despair-pessimism is a long WAY DOWN.

We've been through so many of these rally/corrections that we've learned to front-run the cycle, so it won't go that far down. It always seems different this time but in hindsight it's not.

or... the people who are front-running the "cycle" (which is an imaginary thing actually) are the only reason the price is as high as it is now, and this is just a dead cat bounce before it goes down again.

Dead cat bounce speculation is part of the cycle too. If Bitcoin was going to fail for any reason other than a superior technology rendering it obsolete, it would have failed by now. Anything else only delays without preventing the next ramp. Chinese and Russian hostility to crypto will have the effect of causing western policy makers to support it. The enemy of my enemy and all that.

Bitcoin doesn't need to "fail" for it to be grossly overpriced by speculators and for the speculation bubble to deflate. Refer to 2011. Think of it as a "supercycle".

The 2011 bubble saw an increase from 10 cents to 32 dollars! Proportionally speaking, the 18 month consolidation period before the next rally roughly equates to a consolidation period of about three to five months after a ramp from ~$150 to $1163. We are right on schedule.

JayJuanGee

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: arepo on March 17, 2014, 10:41:05 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 17, 2014, 10:19:14 PM

Quote from: arepo on March 17, 2014, 09:56:22 PM

Quote from: Le Happy Merchant on March 17, 2014, 09:51:01 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 17, 2014, 08:23:41 PM

So, if loss of bid depth on both sides is dramatically measurable, that likely translates to a short-term loss of interest in BTC and likely downward trends....

I say it means hoarding has really begun.

a WILD CONJECTURE has appeared! Tongue

pretty sure it was just traders shifting the position of their orders in response to the first significant price action in almost a week. i forgot how far you guys in this thread will extrapolate and exaggerate any innocent data...

I would NOT describe a $5 to $10 downward trickling movement as a "significant price action."

then you have something to learn about price movement. not only is a $15 movement in a 6-hour period the largest range we have seen in about a week, the volume associated with the movement is the largest we've seen in that same time frame. this makes it significant in magnitude if only in comparison to the watching-paint-dry-caliber price behavior this past week. it is also significant in that it may herald a steady increase in volatility from here on out after that painfully quiet consolidation.

Looks like you are turning out to be correct; however, at the time that I wrote, the movement was only in its budding stages. Also, I do NOT claim to be any expert, so I remain curious why you felt it necessary to engage in patronizing... Anyhow, thanks for the fairly detailed response...

TERA

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 01:27:50 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 12:12:55 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 17, 2014, 11:58:40 PM

Buy when everybody is pessimistic.

We might not be there yet but it's close.

How can we be close to pessimistic? Bitcoin was $100 a year ago. True despair-pessimism is a long WAY DOWN.

We've been through so many of these rally/corrections that we've learned to front-run the cycle, so it won't go that far down. It always seems different this time but in hindsight it's not.

or... the people who are front-running the "cycle" (which is an imaginary thing actually) are the only reason the price is as high as it is now, and this is just a dead cat bounce before it goes down again.

Dead cat bounce speculation is part of the cycle too. If Bitcoin was going to fail for any reason other than a superior technology rendering it obsolete, it would have failed by now. Anything else only delays without preventing the next ramp. Chinese and Russian hostility to crypto will have the effect of causing western policy makers to support it. The enemy of my enemy and all that.

Bitcoin doesn't need to "fail" for it to be grossly overpriced by speculators and for the speculation bubble to deflate. Refer to 2011. Think of it as a "supercycle".

billyjoeallen

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Activity: 1106

Merit: 1007

Hide your women

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 18, 2014, 12:12:55 AM