Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28840. (Read 26630711 times)

Chinese Dinosaur Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday Mar/18

Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-03-18, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3674 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 606 USD.


The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The magenta square at right is the above prediction.  The light blue-gray squares are the older price predictions.   The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. The size of the Albertosaurus under each point indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V_h/V_d, where V_h is the mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V_d is the daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater.   The size of each blue dot is proportional to its reliability weight, computed from the ratio S.  The grey lines are trends fitted a posteriori to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the above prediction.

This diagram is a step towards "scientificating" the Chinese Slumber Method.  Instead of a binary classification of the Slumber Points into True (valid, used) and False (invalid, discarded), each point now gets assigned a numeric weight (shown above by the point's size) which is a decreasing function of the night-time activity ratio S = V_h/V_d. This weight is used for fitting each trend (by weighted least squares) and to choose breaks in the trends.  However the choice of the breaks and part of the fitting are still done by eyeballing.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which these days seems to be around 6.06 CNY/USD.

NOTE: There is no NOTE this time. I may provide two NOTES next time.

Explanation

When did I guess wrong? That is my first prediction thread ever as far as I know...It's also the first time I've published my opinion online (GeekCipher).

All altcoin advantage talk is marketing stuff. At one point, the word "service" was holly grail. We barely had any bitcoin service people were using yet people were obsessed with altcoin services.

Odd that we don't see you here all the times you guess wrong...

Yes, malleability was known for years and, in my opinion, wasn't even a "bug."  It was just the way bitcoin was.  Competent exchanges could never be affected by malleability.  

But it seems to me (I should give credit to DeathAndTaxes) that if the ECDSA signatures were not included in the transaction hash, then malleability would have been impossible right from the start.  But perhaps I'm missing something and it was important that the signatures were included in the transaction hash.  

Tell me if I'm wrong but wasn't malleability known for years and more of an issue with how the programers of certain exchanges verified that a transaction was sent (the lazy way of just checking the transaction hash)?

I think we have a very long time until that happens.  

I remember when I was first learning about bitcoin in March 2013.  People would say how this alt coin was better because it had faster block times, or that alt coin was better because it was proof-of-stake and used less mining energy.  Or this coin has demurrage to prevent hoarding or that coin uses ASIC-resistant hashing, or this coin is "Turing complete."  What I've come to believe is that this was mostly attempts by alt coin pumpers to appeal to newbies.  It seems to make sense that a "second generation" coin would be an improvement, but the more I learn, the more I believe that there are no fundamental improvements that can be made by alt coins and design changes.    

I've now spent months researching bitcoin at the technical level and I never cease to be amazed at Satoshi's genius.  He seemed to give great thought to every detail.  

My only criticism (and perhaps I'm missing something) is the way the ECDSA signatures are included in the transaction hash (which contributed to the transaction malleability problem).  But maybe there was a reason for this too that I've missed.  Nevertheless, we should have malleability eliminated over the coming year.  

it's always beautiful to see triangle consolidation patterns on such small scales... the self-similarity in the price function is striking.

I've got no much fear left in me, to be honest.

I've survived only April 2013 bubble with actually having coins though I watched the stuff in 2011.

The biggest fear I had with BTC is how the USA will react it and all our fears about Bitcoin going to zero were around that point last summer.

As soon as USA approached Bitcoin and announced to make it legal, I see any price drop as usual market movements. There are bear markets, there are bull markets, we might make some money in each of them or lose in downtrends but Bitcoin is here to stay and that's all I care about.

If there is one fear I have is about Bitcoin becoming irrelevant due to some superior technology but I think we have some time until that happens.

Such volume.

Those coins are absorbed by market long time ago. It's not that Gox problems started yesterday.

Big players aren't just traders and they're not putting all their eggs in one basket. Us old hodlers have learned not to panic and newbies with millions have no reason to.

Please save us fairy god-whale.

I'm still living in Bitcoin euphoria, since the CFR took an interest in Bitcoin only 2 of the 4 big predictions have come to pass.
1) the collapse and or outlawing of key exchanges
2) the arrests of known Bitcoin personalities
3) a media smear camping demonising Bitcoin.
4) a collapse in the price. (I'm still coming to terms with Bitcoin leaving double digits)

To be honest the only thing that can collapse the price IMO are the week hands, (non believers) stolen Bitcoin and whales redistributing/ facilitating future wealth growth, and  I think a lot of coins @ the new order of magnetude have already been flushed.

I welcome a drop but if it happens it may take time or if it is quick it will kick some new big players in the balls, if it happens.

big green candle, somebody didn't get the panic memo.

Yeah following my predicted correction to $550-590 here: http://www.geekcipher.com/technology/bitcoin-price-prediction-march-2014-through-july-2014/

My prediction thread here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/lyth0s-bitcoin-price-trending-and-speculation-518871

 

oh noz, Bitcoin is only 51% higher than it was three weeks ago- everybody panic!

There are lot of people who entered the game way above those 100$, they are certainly close to pessimistic stage, some of them are in it for some time. The others won't let it go that low, no chance.