Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28926. (Read 26609738 times)
March 09, 2014, 08:49:09 PM
Jorge did you buy a bitcoin yet?
March 09, 2014, 08:47:24 PM
Chinese Boring Even With Dinosaurs Slumber Method prediction for Monday Mar/10
Prediction valid for: Monday 2014-03-10, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3938 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 656 USD.
Huobi
The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices. The current prediction is the rightmost magenta square. The blue square is the last prediction (see below), and the light blue-gray squares are the previous ones. The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day. Each point is a Glyptodon if the hourly volume Vh for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume Vd 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is an Albertosaurus otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted a posteriori to the Glyptodon Points. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction. The Germanodactyl (hereby assumed to be an ancestor of Bos primigenius) indicates that the trend is ascending.
Today again was a Glyptodon, again barely (Vh/Vd = 0.00487 < 0.005). This point is obviously not on the same trend as the Mar/04--06 Glyptodons, so it seems reasonable to assume a new trend, the straight line defined by the last two Glyptodons; namely, p(d) = A+B*(d-8), where d is the day of the month, A = 3668 and B = +135.
Bitstamp
The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices. The dots, dinosaurs, mammals, lines, and squares are Huobi's Slumber Points, dinosaurs, mammals, trends, and predictions, scaled by the currency conversion factor R.
The actual price ratio between Huobi and Bitstamp has been has been below 6.00 for most of last week:
Therefore it seems necessary to adopt a new value of R in order to map the predicitons from one to the other. Accordingly I am now using R = 6.40 for Feb/07--09, R = 6.00 since Mar/04, and R = 6.12 for all other times before. This new value of R was used to map the points and trends above, and the new prediction (the magenta square), but not the past predictions.
Checking the previous prediction
Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-03-08, 21:54 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-03-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC
Huobi's predicted price: 3596 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3803 CNY
Error: 207 CNY (~35 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 588 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 641 USD
Error: 53 USD
NOTE: Back to chicken-chasing mode, it seems
Prediction valid for: Monday 2014-03-10, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3938 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 656 USD.
Huobi
The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices. The current prediction is the rightmost magenta square. The blue square is the last prediction (see below), and the light blue-gray squares are the previous ones. The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day. Each point is a Glyptodon if the hourly volume Vh for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume Vd 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is an Albertosaurus otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted a posteriori to the Glyptodon Points. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction. The Germanodactyl (hereby assumed to be an ancestor of Bos primigenius) indicates that the trend is ascending.
Today again was a Glyptodon, again barely (Vh/Vd = 0.00487 < 0.005). This point is obviously not on the same trend as the Mar/04--06 Glyptodons, so it seems reasonable to assume a new trend, the straight line defined by the last two Glyptodons; namely, p(d) = A+B*(d-8), where d is the day of the month, A = 3668 and B = +135.
Bitstamp
The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices. The dots, dinosaurs, mammals, lines, and squares are Huobi's Slumber Points, dinosaurs, mammals, trends, and predictions, scaled by the currency conversion factor R.
The actual price ratio between Huobi and Bitstamp has been has been below 6.00 for most of last week:
Therefore it seems necessary to adopt a new value of R in order to map the predicitons from one to the other. Accordingly I am now using R = 6.40 for Feb/07--09, R = 6.00 since Mar/04, and R = 6.12 for all other times before. This new value of R was used to map the points and trends above, and the new prediction (the magenta square), but not the past predictions.
Checking the previous prediction
Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-03-08, 21:54 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-03-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC
Huobi's predicted price: 3596 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3803 CNY
Error: 207 CNY (~35 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 588 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 641 USD
Error: 53 USD
NOTE: Back to chicken-chasing mode, it seems
March 09, 2014, 08:32:02 PM
Also, I would NOT categorize taxation as an involuntary taking.... ... even though there are some difficulties in electing within which society (community) and set up that we want to live. The role of government tends to be a complicated topic... and such topic has been especially inflammatory from time to time....
Try not paying and see what happens. Just because a gang outnumbers you does not make the robbery any the less.
I prefer NOT to get into drawn out discussion about the role of government, and/or the extent to which there is a consensual nature to being governed or being a part of a society.
Nonetheless, I am suggesting that equating individualized theft (or being robbed by a corporation or being defrauded) with taxation will cause considerable oversimplification about the differing concepts and differing dynamics.
Viewing taxation as theft (or as an involuntary taking) is bringing the wrong framework b/c questions about taxation are a lot more complicated than theft or other categories of involuntary takings. For example, you mention the size of the gang... and this seems to be fuzzy logic to view government as a gang.. .. as if you are being ganged up upon and that government is something apart from one's self... even though there remain tensions between community and self, theft is different.
It actually is the exact same thing. It's just that in the case of taxation the group doing the taken are much more powerful and at the same time believe (for the most part) that they are morally in the right (which they aren't in my opinion).
March 09, 2014, 08:14:24 PM
Also, I would NOT categorize taxation as an involuntary taking.... ... even though there are some difficulties in electing within which society (community) and set up that we want to live. The role of government tends to be a complicated topic... and such topic has been especially inflammatory from time to time....
Try not paying and see what happens. Just because a gang outnumbers you does not make the robbery any the less.
I prefer NOT to get into drawn out discussion about the role of government, and/or the extent to which there is a consensual nature to being governed or being a part of a society.
Nonetheless, I am suggesting that equating individualized theft (or being robbed by a corporation or being defrauded) with taxation will cause considerable oversimplification about the differing concepts and differing dynamics.
Viewing taxation as theft (or as an involuntary taking) is bringing the wrong framework b/c questions about taxation are a lot more complicated than theft or other categories of involuntary takings. For example, you mention the size of the gang... and this seems to be fuzzy logic to view government as a gang.. .. as if you are being ganged up upon and that government is something apart from one's self... even though there remain tensions between community and self, theft is different.
March 09, 2014, 08:10:54 PM
Quote
You can probably bind the data in the MtGox database with blockchain data. Then, you can find all MtGox used Bitcoin addresses. Then, you can find where the rabbit hole goes ...
brilliant
cant beat the ponzi
the remaining coins are belong to mark
no one is ever going to get something back
March 09, 2014, 08:02:26 PM
March 09, 2014, 07:58:18 PM
Quote
You can probably bind the data in the MtGox database with blockchain data. Then, you can find all MtGox used Bitcoin addresses. Then, you can find where the rabbit hole goes ...
brilliant
March 09, 2014, 07:58:06 PM
Also, I would NOT categorize taxation as an involuntary taking.... ... even though there are some difficulties in electing within which society (community) and set up that we want to live. The role of government tends to be a complicated topic... and such topic has been especially inflammatory from time to time....
Try not paying and see what happens. Just because a gang outnumbers you does not make the robbery any the less.
March 09, 2014, 07:55:46 PM
Mr Idiot seems to have rolled back his hyperbole and isn't publishing his whatever it is tomorrow http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/
The "bitcoin community" is haunted by zombies -- people and entities that should have been expelled and forgotten long ago but are still walking around doing damage. Mark Karpeles and the Shrem Karpeles & Friends Foundation are the two egregious examples. (The former founder of Brazil's BitcoinRain is our local example here.)
It seems that being "a respected member of the bitcoin community" is more like a nobility title than a job. Once you become one, you remain one for life, no matter what mess and damage you do.
Two-bit idiot accused two members of the Board of having had privileged access of some sort at MtGOX. Now he says that he is backing down because the community closed ranks around those people, and because he does not want to give ammunition to "bitcoin's formibdable enemies". Can't he see that by doing so he is doing just that?
MtGOX could be dismissed as a scam by done by a single-person, it the community had been quick to disown him as soon as his management of the exchange became suspicious and harmful to his clients. Instead we saw many "respected members of the community" support him.
See for instance Roger Ver's emphatically vouching for the solvency of MtGOX, when he must have been conscious that he had not enough evidence of it. Was he motivated by his friendship to Mark, or by his belief that preserving the image of MtGOX was important to preserve the public image of bitcoin? Either way, he apparently thought that such motive was more improtant than preventing investors from putting their money and bitcoins into a dubious business. In the end, his testimonial only hurt the image of bitcoin even more: "Is there anyone in that community that we can trust?"
The about-face of the Two-Bit Idiot seem to be another instance of that mentality, and to me has the same effect as Ver's testimonial...
I agree with some of your conclusions about bitcoin leaders need to set good examples, and surely the community of bitcoin leaders is evolving.
Nonetheless, I think you are over simplifying and potentially misleading if you try to equate these various bitcoin personalities, b/c they each have their particular circumstances in which they are NOT equals.
Shrem was likely set up by the US Govt (harassment of sorts).
Still do NOT know why Ver vouched for Mt. Gox.. that has NOT been explained, yet b/c we still do NOT know what is going on, exactly, with GOC.
Two bit idiot has his own conflicting issues, and based on the current evidence, there is NO way that we can be sure that he is acting in betrayal or bad faith in having had pulled back from his earlier threat to publish insider information regarding potential shenanigans of foundation members.
March 09, 2014, 07:40:43 PM
Involuntary takings are theft regardless of who is doing the taking.
Or how.
Taxation.
Taxation and theft are of two different categories...
Also, I would NOT categorize taxation as an involuntary taking.... ... even though there are some difficulties in electing within which society (community) and set up that we want to live. The role of government tends to be a complicated topic... and such topic has been especially inflammatory from time to time....
Oh yeah, and theft within the government can be quite complicated as well.... yet mostly different from the kinds of thefts going on in bitcoin circles.
March 09, 2014, 07:34:25 PM
wtf is up on stamp, 20btc buy-sell back and forth...
March 09, 2014, 07:34:04 PM
i couldnt find my transactions in btc-transfer-report, found my id in mtgox_balances
use wallet-id instead of user-idIf I dont have my activation email, is there anywhere else to look?
The only number I was able to find was this but I'm not sure if its mine..
02a2c525-316a-4c8c-b99a-33d2f438c2be
I see two results in the text file for it.
March 09, 2014, 07:27:02 PM
March 09, 2014, 07:25:15 PM
Chartbuddy is back 
March 09, 2014, 07:15:40 PM
Involuntary takings are theft regardless of who is doing the taking.
Or how.
Taxation.
That is the obvious one. I was also considering inflation.
Yep. And to think that in 1900 both were insignificant for ordinary people.
I consider that it is only the explosive growth in science and technology, maintaining living standards, that such a deleterious economic system (inflationary fiat, FRB, debt-money, excessive taxation) has been workable. Thus far.
March 09, 2014, 06:50:57 PM
Involuntary takings are theft regardless of who is doing the taking.
Or how.
Taxation.
That is the obvious one. I was also considering inflation.
March 09, 2014, 06:39:22 PM
Mr Idiot seems to have rolled back his hyperbole and isn't publishing his whatever it is tomorrow http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/
The "bitcoin community" is haunted by zombies -- people and entities that should have been expelled and forgotten long ago but are still walking around doing damage. Mark Karpeles and the Shrem Karpeles & Friends Foundation are the two egregious examples. (The former founder of Brazil's BitcoinRain is our local example here.)
It seems that being "a respected member of the bitcoin community" is more like a nobility title than a job. Once you become one, you remain one for life, no matter what mess and damage you do.
Two-bit idiot accused two members of the Board of having had privileged access of some sort at MtGOX. Now he says that he is backing down because the community closed ranks around those people, and because he does not want to give ammunition to "bitcoin's formibdable enemies". Can't he see that by doing so he is doing just that?
MtGOX could be dismissed as a scam by done by a single-person, it the community had been quick to disown him as soon as his management of the exchange became suspicious and harmful to his clients. Instead we saw many "respected members of the community" support him.
See for instance Roger Ver's emphatically vouching for the solvency of MtGOX, when he must have been conscious that he had not enough evidence of it. Was he motivated by his friendship to Mark, or by his belief that preserving the image of MtGOX was important to preserve the public image of bitcoin? Either way, he apparently thought that such motive was more improtant than preventing investors from putting their money and bitcoins into a dubious business. In the end, his testimonial only hurt the image of bitcoin even more: "Is there anyone in that community that we can trust?"
The about-face of the Two-Bit Idiot seem to be another instance of that mentality, and to me has the same effect as Ver's testimonial...
something i just read about peter http://www.aarongreenspan.com/writing/essay.html?id=98
Yeah foundation has been a mess for a while now.
March 09, 2014, 06:34:08 PM
Mr Idiot seems to have rolled back his hyperbole and isn't publishing his whatever it is tomorrow http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/
The "bitcoin community" is haunted by zombies -- people and entities that should have been expelled and forgotten long ago but are still walking around doing damage. Mark Karpeles and the Shrem Karpeles & Friends Foundation are the two egregious examples. (The former founder of Brazil's BitcoinRain is our local example here.)
It seems that being "a respected member of the bitcoin community" is more like a nobility title than a job. Once you become one, you remain one for life, no matter what mess and damage you do.
Two-bit idiot accused two members of the Board of having had privileged access of some sort at MtGOX. Now he says that he is backing down because the community closed ranks around those people, and because he does not want to give ammunition to "bitcoin's formibdable enemies". Can't he see that by doing so he is doing just that?
MtGOX could be dismissed as a scam by done by a single-person, it the community had been quick to disown him as soon as his management of the exchange became suspicious and harmful to his clients. Instead we saw many "respected members of the community" support him.
See for instance Roger Ver's emphatically vouching for the solvency of MtGOX, when he must have been conscious that he had not enough evidence of it. Was he motivated by his friendship to Mark, or by his belief that preserving the image of MtGOX was important to preserve the public image of bitcoin? Either way, he apparently thought that such motive was more improtant than preventing investors from putting their money and bitcoins into a dubious business. In the end, his testimonial only hurt the image of bitcoin even more: "Is there anyone in that community that we can trust?"
The about-face of the Two-Bit Idiot seem to be another instance of that mentality, and to me has the same effect as Ver's testimonial...
something i just read about peter http://www.aarongreenspan.com/writing/essay.html?id=98
March 09, 2014, 06:21:18 PM
Does the .exe tool connect to their MySQL db or does one need a username/password...?
In the tech crunch screenshot there is information populated into the admin tool, which would lead me to believe it was fully functioning or that screenshot is BS.
In the tech crunch screenshot there is information populated into the admin tool, which would lead me to believe it was fully functioning or that screenshot is BS.
March 09, 2014, 06:20:21 PM
i couldnt find my transactions in btc-transfer-report, found my id in mtgox_balances
use wallet-id instead of user-id Jump to: