And in general, do you think that we will have more boom-bust circles in the next years? Or will we change to a somewhat more steady and slower rise?
If the ratio of moneyflows to market price does not change, the cycles will continue unabated. Their remarkable regularity is likely to result in attempts to front-run the cycle, and hence accelerate it. That may also tend to blunt the extremes a bit, smoothing them over a diversity of participants. Persistently retaining value will be likely to incentivize greater moneyflows, however, now that the financial world has actually caught wind of crypto. One can never anticipate innovation, but a queuing model for innovations is probably useful. It involves a software development cycle, and in some cases an emergent consensus cycle.
I recommend to anyone who will listen (and that means pretty much everyone I know) that they DCA into BTC at the maximum rate feasible, and try to front-load that. It's the lowest risk plan which can be executed by a neophyte, I think -- when including expected opportunity costs.
Personally I'm hoping for at least 3 perfect hype cycles, as that would allow me to capitalize my long-range project. If it works, I'll be about half way to achieving my goals. If it fails, I'll be financially destroyed. I think it should be possible to complete 3 cycles in 24 months, which is the minimum amount of time before any innovator at work today could conceivably bootstrap to the point where their crypto was competitive with BTC. If and when that happens, the hype cycle is likely to change dramatically. At first it will undergo a quasi-periodic or chaotic regime where it is tightly coupled with the cycle of the innovator. Ultimately it will decouple as the new homeostasis is discovered.
