Hate to do it, cause the guy has brains, but war profiteering is not honorable.
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Confirmed - Aminorex now in the ingnorechain (and anyone who quotes him - that's what the ignorechain does).
Happy to be ignored. I'm not here to impose my ideas on anyone, but I can't let that "war profiteering" comment slide.
My bet is that war is bad for business. My task is to estimate price trajectory distributions. If a war is likely and likely to move prices, I'm going to adjust positions accordingly. Anything else is just doing the task badly. If I thought doing the task well would cause anyone more material harm than being forced to trade down to a lower grade of cognac, I'd be doing something else.
Being offended by my "with any luck" language is entirely understandable. I often use a certain kind of offensive language because I find the incongruities and dissonances amusing, entertaining. When using offensive language, the risk of offending is high. I should probably do it less, at least. It helps me to be skeptical of my own motivations, which I find useful, when I put my own behaviours in the most cynical light.
I am happily gratified that my luck appears to be bad in this case, and Russia looks likely to stand down, and assume a more constructive posture in Ukraine. I would prefer to make more money, ceteris paribus, but if ever a loss was happily taken, any loss on SPUs due to a more congenial outcome in Ukraine is one. And ceteris is almost never paribus, although we must perforce assume it is, most of the time. I'm still shorting SPUs through August, though: That's a war for justice and truth, and I think I can win it without collateral damage.