Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29130. (Read 26710278 times)

Why dont they do it in an open way? It would help people trust them and increase business surely?

How would one go about making such an open transparent exchange? What would be the flaws?

"By keeping the funds off the blockchain, Gox removed the protections of transparency and end-user control and replicated the model of a centralized bank without any of the controls and oversight such institutions require”.

It would be easy for the other exchanges to let us control our own adresses while dealing on their platform

Nobody does....you might know already why

https://medium.com/p/672545b3d8d7

and that the main btc holders want to sell they are blatantly telling you by ...lets get over the firts strike guys

My guess is, people are waiting to see what happens. Trust is damaged and will take a while to get people spending again. Also, people have put their coins into cold storage following all the recent rumors and problems.

Yeah, right...   a little humor can't hurt.... and thanks for a possible explanation...



Does this mean that BTC will NEVER go beyond $3,200?  interesting!

put yourself in  the boots of an exchange owner...of course can and are they able to deal in bitcoin just by

bookentrys as heretofore nobody wanted to withdraw more than 10 % of the Fiat or BTC...given the

unaccountability of their books it is more than tempting to deal on your own exchange but when the early

chain - letter birds decide to cash out where to find the money all at once?....or why the hell find all the

money all at once ?

these indicators are driving me nuts! 1D macd has a weak cross for 2 candles but stoch rsi is still insanely high even higher than before. the order book on stamp looks really strong but it's still not nearly as large as the gox order book used to be when gox was market leader. also, China still leads, which seems weird and dangerous.

Explanation

Amen brother

Actually the price charts have been this dull before: e.g. from Dec/30 to Jan/2,  from Jan/20 to Jan/24, and from Jan/29 to Feb/05.

The first interval must be connected to the Western new year, the last one spans the Chinese New Year holidays.   I have no guess for  Jan20--24.

Investors must now be exhausted after seven straight days of highly intense trading and unbelievable news.  So, now that the bad news have ceased, many of them may have relaxed and paused for a while.

Also, the definitive closure of MtGOX removed a major source of "noise" in the market.  For example, many ill-informed investors may have tried to do arbitrage with MtGOX.  Others may have been "withdrawing" BTC from it via bitcoinbuilder and selling it on the other markets.  And perhaps the MtGOX thieves were trying to unload their booty.  

I think that you make some very good points, especially regarding a potential for volatility in the event that there is actually less capital invested and/or circulating in the exchanges.  Nonetheless, I remain uncertain about whether the scenario is going to play out in the way in which you describe.  At this point, it remains unclear about whether the 750K-ish GOX coins have already been introduced into the overall bitcoin circulation.  

On the other hand, we have a large number of institutional investors that have likely been chomping at the bits to get into bitcoin; however, they have been holding off in their getting in based on December/January uncertainties about the status of China... and then February concerns about Mt. Gox.....   NOW, the China situation seems to be more clear and the Gox situation is somewhat clarified and contained (and I would suggest sufficiently clarified and contained - even though  NOT completely clarified b/c some of the story still does NOT quite add up).  

In that regard, I stick to my guns with my earlier prediction of more likely moving towards the $750-$850 direction - and I remain betting my fiat into BTC accordingly - though of course, I have NO real insider information besides what I read in various parts of the BTC community.

It keeps changing depending on how high the price went.

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday Mar/02

Trade volume V_d for today Mar/01 is already ~102 kBTC, and volume V_h in the official Slumber hour (19:00--19:59) was 100 BTC; so, by the new rule V_h/V_d < 0.005, it is definitely a True Slumber Point.

The price at the official Slumber hour today (Feb/28 19:00--19:59) was 3464 CNY.  The new data point leads to a slight revision of the last segment of the new trendline.  The average of the True Slumber Points since the Second Karpeles Catastrophe of Feb/20 (namely, Feb/21, 23--25, 27--28, and Mar/01) is now 3515 CNY instead of 3522. Thus,

Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-03-02, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3515 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 572 USD.

The prediction is the blue rectangle almost outside the right margin in the chart below.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, and the orange line is the new trendline.


The price ratio between Huobi and Bitstamp was 6.08. That is so close to the factor R = 6.12 that I have been using, that I prefer to stick to the latter.  Thus, the prediction for Bitstamp is simply that for Huobi, divided by R = 6.12.

NOTE: The prediction is void and null if Mark Karpeles issues another press release, or somebody sneezes.

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Mar/01

(Since by now I must be in most people's "ignore" lists, advance warnings seem unnecessary.)

This is no fun...

Prediction posted on: Friday 2014-02-28, 22:19 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-03-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Huobi's predicted price: 3522 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3479 CNY
Error: 43 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 575 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 572 USD
Error: 3 USD

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other times).

oh no ..I forgot OKcoin....this bug is searching for the windshield next....raising the fees 300 % for

withdrawls....is the 5% emergency fee next?

btc-e doesn´t EVEN need to confront any consequence saying thank you and good bye

That's not the biggest problem. Banksters would launch a propaganda war calling Bitcoin Island a hive of gambling, prostitution, drugs and money laundering; then it would get invaded. The Seasteading Institute is even dumber. At least Islands can't be sunk. This is a DISTRIBUTED network. We can have a group hug at the conventions.

watch how easy it was for Mark just bowing down saying sorry and thank you while laughing his ass off

and delegating the rest to the laywers.....a bit embarassing may be inside the wider community...but

btc-e doesn´t need to confront any consequence saying thank you and good bye

bearstamp is leading the way in the outgoing tide.....nevertheless my bet is on BTC-e who don´t want to be seen

naked next....they were already announing the announcment of announcing a date for auditing...goxed?

Fun fac, it's easy to trick an order book if you don't do that !