Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29133.

dreamspark

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Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 02:51:30 PM

IN my humble opinion... you are over calculating such biases in people... in some simplified version of the world... NO hating on you... ..

It is just that I see your view of human nature as WAY TOO simplified... People are much more informed in terms of their actions and reactions than you give them credit... and they gamble based on their information.. .which may be correct or incorrect... but it is NOT merely some wishful view of the world... as you make it out to be... ..

Your caps key keeps getting stuck, I think you should get it checked out. Oh and the full stop key as well.

tailor

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Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 02:51:30 PM

IN my humble opinion... you are over calculating such biases in people... in some simplified version of the world... NO hating on you... ..

It is just that I see your view of human nature as WAY TOO simplified... People are much more informed in terms of their actions and reactions than you give them credit... and they gamble based on their information.. .which may be correct or incorrect... but it is NOT merely some wishful view of the world... as you make it out to be... ..

The reality is people far underestimate their own biases in their thinking. People may be informed, but how they use the information will be affected by their biases. We all filter information, and tend to dismiss or undervalue information that doesn't support our theories, and overvalue information that does. It's human nature.

Yololintian

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Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 02:33:57 PM

Quote from: GreekGeek on March 01, 2014, 06:25:48 AM

Quote from: NEMcoin on March 01, 2014, 06:12:08 AM

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

the situation is extremely bearish
prepare for a long and slow way down (similar to 2011)

I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too)
before we Choo Choo again

currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero

YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish...

likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena...

Quote from: Hawkix on March 01, 2014, 06:43:59 AM

After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.

Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.

AH HA!!!!!! The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!...... The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas......

No, you are too bullish to be taken seriously. We will not be hitting 750-850 in 2 weeks.

ChartBuddy

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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: V2Rocket on March 01, 2014, 02:35:55 PM

Quote from: Peter R on March 01, 2014, 02:33:12 PM

...
But what is wrong with learning from the experience and moving on? Do you have a better option?

Lessons from *earlier* experiences have taught me that "moving on" lets scammers continue scamming.

Right on.

Which appears to be what the "core bitcoin community" desperately wants in the case of MtGOX. Why aren't they clamoring for a criminal investigation?

Bythe way, it should be easy to find and demonstrate specific instances of use of the "malleate request and get refunded" trick. Perhaps those examples can be found even without the cooperation of MtGOX? Have any such examples been published, or is that still only a theory?

tailor

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Quote from: Peter R on March 01, 2014, 02:21:00 PM

If the coins were not stollen recently and entered the bitcoin economy long ago, then the missing 750,000 GoxBTC is bullish medium and long term, because the effective monetary base of bitcoin just decreased by 6%. If 20% of those who thought they had coins at Gox, buy new coins (and move them to cold storage this time), that represents 150,000 BTC of sudden demand.

Theories based on an influx of money to buy lost coins are wishful thinking at best.

Where does the money $75M for the 150K coins come from? People don't re-buy lost investments like that - the money invested is gone. Add in the likelihood that most of the stolen coins were mined, not bought, which even more unlikely to be re-bought.

analytics

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thread on tracing stolen coins. All the data likely is there to trace them. All it takes is some cooperation with exchanges.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5451149

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=494554.0;topicseen

Wonder what would happen to bitcoin price if the community showed it could police and find these thieves who thought they were anonymous. There are troves of metadata out there that allow for constructing a social graph. It's just a matter of doing it.
This feels more like what groups like bitcoin foundation should be spending coin/cash on doing if they want bitcoin to grow (facilitating and helping connect the right parties). If the community does it, then full court press on external regulation should ease as well. And bitcoin should grow in general as some of the distrust would fade if thieves can't hide and the community shows they don't want them to.

JayJuanGee

legendary

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: tailor on March 01, 2014, 09:54:39 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 05:25:48 AM

Quote from: tailor on March 01, 2014, 01:48:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2014, 09:28:55 PM

Based on approximate three months of various uncertainties in the China ban situation that took us from early December into late January and then the Mt. Gox situation through the month of February.... .... and also based on the fact that the BTC network has been expanding, growing and developing during this time while investors have been waiting on the side-lines b/c of the uncertainties... that is my sense of the situation... and my sense that as soon as some of these uncertainties are resolved.. which they seem to have been largely resolved, we are going moon-ish... or at least suborbital moon into the $750 to $850 range first.. and then into the $1500 range... absent some further impediments.....

Do you have a different sense of the current situation?

My sense is that nobody has a clue what's going to happen, and that looking at the same set of facts most predictions will tend to align with the wishes of the person making the prediction.

That is way to fantastical to think that we all live in fantasy worlds.. with our own sense of reality that is NOT really based in reality. I do NOT see the world like that. ... I do NOT buy that the world is just made up of a bunch of people wishing whatever they want.

What's fantastical about the observation that predictions align with wishes? Unless you've got a fantastical crystal ball you can't know what's going to happen. I'm merely pointing out that a set of facts or rumour will be interpreted many ways, and people on these message boards will usually interpret them to support their wants. The MTGox news is the just the latest example: bulls see it as bullish in the long run, bears see it as bearish.

It's not fantasy, it's just observing the bias we all have.

IN my humble opinion... you are over calculating such biases in people... in some simplified version of the world... NO hating on you... ..

It is just that I see your view of human nature as WAY TOO simplified... People are much more informed in terms of their actions and reactions than you give them credit... and they gamble based on their information.. .which may be correct or incorrect... but it is NOT merely some wishful view of the world... as you make it out to be... ..

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3948

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: nakaone on March 01, 2014, 06:55:48 AM

for me there are two legitimate options regarding the "unavailable" coins

1) confiscation by some authority (most likely after all the stuff i read) - short and long term extremely bullish

2) he lost the private keys (even thogh supply is much shorter that is extremely bearish due to the public picture that even the oldest exchange cannot handle the technical issues around the currency, how should average joe do that?)

and one option that does not make sense

3) 840k (!) coins are stolen (without noticing), that is almost 1000 coins per day since the time mtgox is operating

There are probably some other variations here.... HOWEVER out of the variations that you describe, it does seem number 1 is the most likely..... .. but there could be some variation or combination of 1 and 3... ... or like some of the fiasco situations that are described in which there is a partial loss that was back in 2011... and then GOX et al... gamble and lose with investor's BTC b/c they are in fiat at times, such as november 2013... when BTC prices are doubling and tripling...

Solarstorm75

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Quote from: V2Rocket on March 01, 2014, 02:35:55 PM

Quote from: Peter R on March 01, 2014, 02:33:12 PM

...
But what is wrong with learning from the experience and moving on? Do you have a better option?

Lessons from *earlier* experiences have taught me that "moving on" lets scammers continue scamming.

+1000000000000000000000000000

V2Rocket

newbie

Activity: 30

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Quote from: Peter R on March 01, 2014, 02:33:12 PM

...
But what is wrong with learning from the experience and moving on? Do you have a better option?

Lessons from *earlier* experiences have taught me that "moving on" lets scammers continue scamming.

mmitech

legendary

Activity: 1148

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things you own end up owning you

Quote from: Peter R on March 01, 2014, 02:33:12 PM

Quote from: mmitech on March 01, 2014, 02:28:45 PM

off-topic, about Gox and all the BS going around, I find it unbelievable when early adopters Like Roger and Erik and everyone else asking people to just forget their money and move on..... yea you can move on, you have millions already so what if you lost few thousands, try convince this guy who lost +4700BTC

I feel for the people that had funds at MtGox, and I think it is important to be sympathetic to these victims.

But what is wrong with learning from the experience and moving on? Do you have a better option?

yes bring justice and tell us what really happened and prove it then try to resolve it with all what you can, when all this fail then people will try and only start trying to move on.

do you know what happened in gox ? I think no right ? then why to move on?

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3948

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: GreekGeek on March 01, 2014, 06:25:48 AM

Quote from: NEMcoin on March 01, 2014, 06:12:08 AM

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

the situation is extremely bearish
prepare for a long and slow way down (similar to 2011)

I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too)
before we Choo Choo again

currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero

YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish...

likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena...

Quote from: Hawkix on March 01, 2014, 06:43:59 AM

After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.

Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.

AH HA!!!!!! The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!...... The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas......

Peter R

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Quote from: mmitech on March 01, 2014, 02:28:45 PM

off-topic, about Gox and all the BS going around, I find it unbelievable when early adopters Like Roger and Erik and everyone else asking people to just forget their money and move on..... yea you can move on, you have millions already so what if you lost few thousands, try convince this guy who lost +4700BTC

I feel for the people who had funds at MtGox, and I think it is important to be sympathetic to these victims. They are our fellow human beings and some may be in a lot of pain right now.

But what is wrong with learning from the experience and moving on? Do you have a better option?

zyk

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Quote from: Peter R on March 01, 2014, 02:21:00 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 02:08:35 PM

Quote from: NEMcoin on March 01, 2014, 06:12:08 AM

http://falkvinge.net/2014/02/28/the-gox-crater-crowd-detectives-reveal-billion-dollar-heist-as-inside-job/

Quote

Who took the money?
So, the trillion-dollar question: who took the money? Strictly speaking, we don’t know that yet. We’re talking about a sum of money so large that “humongous” and “enormous” aren’t sufficient to describe it – it’s 6% of all bitcoin in existence, and assuming bitcoin keeps growing to its potential, that means one individual is sitting on 6% of the world’s future trade and retail currency supply. In today’s USD value, such an amount would be on the order of 20 trillion US dollars, or roughly 250 times the fortune of today’s richest billionaire. It’s not exactly hard to see a motive here.

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

I agree that we should be a little bearish.. at least for a week or two ... b/c of this news... HOWEVER.... BTC prices have remained extremely resilient to this news... which causes me to continue to assert that there is considerable pent up demand for BTC....

Regarding the point about this seemingly probably heist (based on GOX's own renditions of the situation) is humongous and enormous, this surely is NOT as humongous and enormous as it is being made out to be in the above post......

The reality is that we still live in largely a fiat world... and in terms of overall world scandals, this one is NOT very high in the whole scheme of things... even if it adds up to more than $500 million dollars in current value.... ...

NONETHELESS, i get and probably even agree with the point that BTC is going to go up and probably double in value within the next six months to a year... accordingly, this seems to be heist... is going to add up to more than a billion in about a year... BTC prices are going to be going up.. even with 6% heist of the coins... YET ... we are still a bit unclear about whether the gangsters are going to be able to profit from the coins.. The most plausible scenarios remains that the gangsters are probably going to be able to profit from their heist of these 750K -ish of BTC...

In my opinion, it is highly unlikely that 750,000 BTC were stollen recently. If a huge sum of coins were stollen, then the theft occurred in 2011 when Gox security was lax and the bounty was much less. The theives sold these coins in 2011 and 2012, keeping the price repressed and explaining the long bear market at this time.

Here is my theory in more detail: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5438572

If the coins were not stollen recently and entered the bitcoin economy long ago, then the missing 750,000 GoxBTC is bullish medium and long term, because the effective monetary base of bitcoin just decreased by 6%. If 20% of those who thought they had coins at Gox, buy new coins (and move them to cold storage this time), that represents 150,000 BTC of sudden demand.

Yep..its about new money coming into the scheme.....and as I don´t know what to do with bitcoins besides putting them in a cold wallet, as the exchanges are free

to account them to anybody else....just lost my live savings to the insider -crew at Gox...surely I will convince more suckers to put some money in the fantastic black

hole where the early - birds just decided to sell short. That is and will remain of the Gox aftermaths......as TBF gives a fuck.

V2Rocket

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Quote from: Peter R on March 01, 2014, 02:21:00 PM

... If 20% of those who thought they had coins at Gox, buy new coins (and move them to cold storage this time), that represents 150,000 BTC of sudden demand.

If 20% of those whose dollars were stolen bought more dollars... Ohwait.

mmitech

legendary

Activity: 1148

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things you own end up owning you

off-topic, about Gox and all the BS going around, I find it unbelievable when early adopters Like Roger and Erik and everyone else asking people to just forget their money and move on..... yea you can move on, you have millions already so what if you lost few thousands, try convince this guy who lost +4700BTC

and I was also reading about someone who committed a suicide after losing 900BTC https://twitter.com/CharlieShrem/status/439832777887076352

derpinheimer

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Quote from: magicmexican on March 01, 2014, 02:24:38 PM

Confirmed Goxcoin pump, get in while its cheap!

Why do people say such stupid shit? Goxbtc isnt even moving.

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitcoinbuilder/GOXBTC

magicmexican

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Confirmed Goxcoin pump, get in while its cheap!

Peter R

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Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 01, 2014, 02:08:35 PM

Quote from: NEMcoin on March 01, 2014, 06:12:08 AM

http://falkvinge.net/2014/02/28/the-gox-crater-crowd-detectives-reveal-billion-dollar-heist-as-inside-job/

Quote

Who took the money?
So, the trillion-dollar question: who took the money? Strictly speaking, we don’t know that yet. We’re talking about a sum of money so large that “humongous” and “enormous” aren’t sufficient to describe it – it’s 6% of all bitcoin in existence, and assuming bitcoin keeps growing to its potential, that means one individual is sitting on 6% of the world’s future trade and retail currency supply. In today’s USD value, such an amount would be on the order of 20 trillion US dollars, or roughly 250 times the fortune of today’s richest billionaire. It’s not exactly hard to see a motive here.

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

I agree that we should be a little bearish.. at least for a week or two ... b/c of this news... HOWEVER.... BTC prices have remained extremely resilient to this news... which causes me to continue to assert that there is considerable pent up demand for BTC....

Regarding the point about this seemingly probably heist (based on GOX's own renditions of the situation) is humongous and enormous, this surely is NOT as humongous and enormous as it is being made out to be in the above post......

The reality is that we still live in largely a fiat world... and in terms of overall world scandals, this one is NOT very high in the whole scheme of things... even if it adds up to more than $500 million dollars in current value.... ...

NONETHELESS, i get and probably even agree with the point that BTC is going to go up and probably double in value within the next six months to a year... accordingly, this seems to be heist... is going to add up to more than a billion in about a year... BTC prices are going to be going up.. even with 6% heist of the coins... YET ... we are still a bit unclear about whether the gangsters are going to be able to profit from the coins.. The most plausible scenarios remains that the gangsters are probably going to be able to profit from their heist of these 750K -ish of BTC...

In my opinion, it is highly unlikely that 750,000 BTC were stollen recently. If a huge sum of coins were stollen, then the theft occurred in 2011 when Gox security was lax and the bounty was much less. The theives sold these coins in 2011 and 2012, keeping the price repressed and explaining the long bear market at this time.

Here is my theory in more detail:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5397869
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5438572

If the coins were not stollen recently and entered the bitcoin economy long ago, then the missing 750,000 GoxBTC is bullish medium and long term, because the effective monetary base of bitcoin just decreased by 6%. If 20% of those who thought they had coins at Gox, buy new coins (and move them to cold storage this time), that represents 150,000 BTC of sudden demand.

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