Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29332. (Read 26656716 times)

Warning: if you find the Chinese Slumber Stuff annoying, be sure to skip my last two posts. 

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday Feb/25

Today Feb/24, Huobi's volume for 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC was only 197 BTC, which, by the criteria I have been using, makes it a True Slumber Point.  However, trading was officially interrupted for maintenance at 18:00 UTC (2:00 am China time) and was expected to resume at 23:00 UTC (07:00 China time), but there were a few small transactions in that interval.  So it may be more prudent to consider it a False Slumber Point.

This was the fifth consecutive day in a period of hectic trading at Huobi, that started on Feb/20. It is as if the Slumber Points of Feb/20, Feb/21, Feb/22 and today Feb/24 were all False.  That is, it is as if the five days Feb/20--24 had been one single "trading session" during which the price veered off the trend line, like Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17.

There is no clear trend yet, so for the next prediction I will rather arbitrarily use the "bullish" trendline defined by the True Slumber Points of Feb/18, Feb/19 and Feb/23, ignoring Feb/21.  That trend line has the equation p = 3871.10 - 2.57*d, where p is the price and d is the day number in February.   For Bitstamp, as usual, I will use Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.

Therefore:

Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-02-25, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3807 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD.



NOTE: This is not trade advice.  If you are looking for that, I advise you to trust Piet Hein:

    Shun advice
    at any price -
    that's what I call
    good advice.

Can you please expand on the statement "when they have liquidity at Bitstamp". Thanks

I underestimated how stupid people are. I am kicking myself for not profiting from this. I am all BTC and I think it's too late now.

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/24
or
Have some good laughs watching Jorge chase the Chinese Chicken

Prediction posted on: Sunday 2014-02-2223, 22:24 UTC
Prediction valid for: Monday 2014-02-24, 19:00--19:59 UTC

The prediction for today (Monday Feb/24) again failed.  The actual price fell halfway between the "bullish" trend line defined by the Slumber Points of Feb/18, Feb/19 and Feb/23; and the "bearish" trendline, parallel to it, defined by the Feb/22 Slumber Point.

Huobi's predicted price: 3809 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3615 CNY
Error: 194 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 545 USD
Error: 77 USD

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.  Note that this computation was quite off the actual Bitstamp price for Feb/24, due to a 10 kBTC sale that was in progress at the time.


EDIT: Snday was Feb/23 not Feb/22

Given that all crashes occur on high volume that statement is true by definition (volumetrically speaking).

One obstacle that there is to that is that Bitcoin has effectively "burned that bridge". Its low initial adoption has allowed it to grow in an organic manner that will be less available to successors. It could still happen but whatever it is won't just have to be better than Bitcoin, it'll have to be significantly better and Satoshi set the bar pretty high.

The routing option has been gone for awhile. But I think they are going to lose some of their order book to BSP if they are less volatile than BSP...

most poeple sell at the bottom.

They use bitstamp when they have liquidity at bitstamp, not otherwise.  The routing was made transparent a few weeks ago.

WTF is up with Bearstamp. Don't they realize that these prices are already dirt cheap? Stop selling you fools!

I am not sure if they still use bitstamp, they have quite a lot of volume and large orderbook themself. Can't find the routing option also for trading and no bitstamp section on fees page anymore.

Bit annoyed with BFX. I had a limit order at 529 that went unfilled on the spike down to 514 on Bitstamp.

The BFX service discussion thread says that this is because market orders on BSP are not made available to the BFX order book. Only market orders on BFX are made available to BSP.  

I'm not convinced this is the reason (although I have to admit it has been a long time since I have seen one of my limit orders execute on BSP). It might be another step to "protect the lenders" on BFX along with dropping max leverage to 1:2.5

Seleme you should start a paid service. I'd subscribe just because I don't have time to monitor the altcoins all day, plus I hate some of the sleaziness that surrounds the community.

Well deserved imho... found a niche, was quick with a simple but efficient solution and is (or seems) trustworthy and nice.

30 000 BTC volume x 4% (2% on both sides). Now, it's only the question if that 30k volume is last 24 hours or all volume since it's opened. Impressing profit whatever it is.

Where you got 1200 BTC? 400 BTC probably...

Yeah....I shifted funds over to Bitfinex....shorting opportunity at $630 was too tempting......if I start to get a queasy feeling about them again then I will shift funds back off.

I pulled my short with a small profit. I actually pulled it by mistake cos my full attentions weren't on the game....but to be honest, there is no definite trade at this point in time. True, prevailing sentiment is very negative, but we have just had a hell of a run down in price and past experience tells me that the indefatigable optimism in the face of common sense of Bitcoin investors, makes for every potential of a counter-trend rally up to perhaps $579 before we finally breach $530.

Having said that, we are currently in a pennant formation on a strong down trend. Any TA 101 certificate holder will tell you that 9/10, a break down will follow this.....we are also nearing the very narrowest limits of this formation so we shouldn't have to wait long.

I would still say more chance of further price deterioration than a small counter trend rally but I would only be 60% certain on that and that isn't good enough. I figure that if I cut out the trades that I am not sure off and go with the blatantly obvious, I will cut out a lot of frustrations in my trading. I never lose on the trades that I am certain off beforehand.

Definitely.

Explanation