Probably true. But I'd be careful making too much of that whale dump. Go back to July 10 (or so) in 2013. Marked the end of the post-April bear market. Buying pressure slowly, but clearly started building up after the bottom, 2h, then 6h BB started looking really nice, then: HUGE dump.
Took price development back for about a week, but didn't alter the general direction.
What I'm trying to say is: not sure yet if this is the reversal or not, but whales can occasionally be dumbfucks as well, and can lose money. Whoever dumped that huge load back in July 18 never got his coins back for the same price (unless he was on gox in the past days, but that doesn't quite cut it.)
Market was already correcting before whale turned up with his 10K of auctioned/stolen/Gox'd BTC.
I started shorting on Bitfinex again (being sure not to set any stop losses for the fkers to farm) as I seen that the charts were badly oversold and couldn't resist. This was at about $633 and I got in at about $623. 10K whale never turned up until $595.18.
So taking his market input out of the equation, charts were already well on their way to forming yet another bear wedge with support at $530, similar to the $765 bear support wedge through Jan 2014. With the whales sell off, this bearish wedge has broke to the downside, at least on Stamp. This alone wouldn't count for anything other than an anomaly, except like I said, the whale tricked bots into blowing $3 million USD at his $797 sell wall, in addition to soaking up the same again in market liquidity at lower prices.
I am always prepared to keep my mind open to possibilities that veer beyond my own take on the market, as this is real money that I am playing with here. However, for me, $530 was not a bottom. It was the support of a bear wedge and this whale dump has simply brought a jack-boot down upon the still bearish market.
Disagree with your assessment on yesterday. I'm keeping my eyes open for signs that the reversal happens, simply because my short term buys would become "real" holds again in that case.
Yesterday was such a day. Strong signals on 6h BB, CMF sharply up. Low on volume, because weekend, so no certainty yet, sure. Earlier today came the retracement. Of course we were short term overbought, that's what happens in either case, when a trend reverses, or when it's a false breakout. That "retracement" however was fucked up brutally by our friend, the whale.
So back to square one, imo. Looking bearish again, I agree with you, but to really count as a continuation of a bear market we would damn well need to see sub-500 coins at some point, I'm sure you agree. And getting there is sure taking some time.
The longer we bounce between 530 and 580, the less more I'll warm up to the idea that sub-500 coins won't happen anymore. Except maybe for a flash crash if gox outright declares that they're bankrupt and the the sheep hit the sell button without thinking twice.
I do base my trades on 4h chart short term and 3d for mid/long term calls, A reversal was about to form up at 620-640 but looking at the 4h chart it seemed like a bull trap, the price could start raising and we could be done with the down trend if everything went normal, but Gox complicated things here...
I was so sure about 600's resisting, but then gox fucked up and fucked all the charts, it was then when I sat down and reconsidered all my positions, to be honest even with holding bitcoin, I really wish that 350-450 to happen, because most of people are waiting for it, it is a psychical thing, if it happens once we can move on, until then the image is really blurry and the only thing I can think out of this, is downtrend...
these traders will get burned so hard when they realize they could buy cheaper 