Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29391. (Read 26609814 times)

140 

Having witnessed apparent insider trading on Gox this last week the broader market is watching for further price signals hence the tie between stamp and Gox.

week end bullish?  

edit: discl: i've been shotring every mondays and buying back every thursdays/fridays for that last month and it surely had been freaking awesome

I saw that and I was thinking the same thing. The "All in?" article also on ZH suggests Yellen and Co are probably gonna untaper despite their jawboning. Bullish for BTC and PMs. Bullish for debtors. Nobody is buying Janet's Volker impersonation.

some of those charts are way scarier than gox lately

-> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-22/just-12-wtf-charts

bonus from the article:

Explanation

I'd like to announce my new web site: Fleeing-Ex-Leader-Tracking.info. It uses Bitcoin only. Members are provided news and info as I track fleeing ex-leaders. Simple really. Whether its Viktor F. Yanukovych, Francisco Flores or General Pervez Musharraf you'll never need to worry about where your favorite ex-leader might have gone. This month only: 10% off!

Remember the form Mark filled out where he said Gox isn't a money services business?

The problem here is that the GOX team have ALWAYS behaved in this way, even when they were the only game in town and wildly successful.

I am not saying they are solvent, just that they have displayed staggering incompetence right along so the fact that they continue to tells me nothing.

mtgox is offtopic! ;-) LOL

At some point extraordinary incompetence becomes criminal.

Edit: Although anyone using Gox in the future is also a moron.

Exactly. MtGox is either criminal, or extraordinarily incompetent.


Past history points towards the latter.

There's about a 2 minute lag. Pretty damn profitable for me today! Not too hard to figure out. Goxcoin price is about solvency probabilities. The worry of dumping goxcoin in arbitrage has been dampened by bitcoinbuilder. Market is saying Gox is still shitty but more likely solvent.

That's not a reasonable conclusion, for four reasons (assuming Gox is insolvent):

1) There is always a discount on debt, even if the ability to repay is certain. Otherwise T-bills would have nearly 0 yield. People do not like the idea that they may not see their money for months - even years, if they go bankrupt.

2) There is the expectation that a court may give preference to fiat debt in bankruptcy proceedings, and so BTC would be a junior debt class.

3) If the receiver liquidates Gox's BTC holdings to fiat, and BTC/USD increases during the bankruptcy proceedings, Gox could become more insolvent.

4) Fear is running this market.

The mtgox problem isn't solvency, so much as it is competency.

So you've both sold goxcoins for less than $200?

+1  

lol

Er, that 2/3 (now more like 1/2) is not my estimate, it is what their clients apparently believe, given the price that they agreed at MtGOX.

Well, I can think of three ways in which MtGOX could have lost a large part of their coins (and theft is not one of them).  But there may be others.

"Too big to fail" has been said of many companies which failed soon after.  

The reason I suspect that MtGOX is insolvent is because Mark is doing everything that one expects from the CEO of an insolvent company: stalling and delaying payments, communicating only through vague press releases widely spaced  apart, avoiding clients, blaming "the system", moving to a high-security building...

And he is not doing any of the things that he should and could do if MtGOX were not insolvent and he cared about its business and the health of bitcoin. Like, proving that he controls a large stash of coins, giving explicit numbers (even if approximate) about their financial situation, bringing in some competent accountants and programmers, giving interviews about the crisis, checking and processing by hand some large withdrawals...

If MtGOX is not insolvent, Mark is feigning it extraordinarily well.


Good question.  Perhaps because few people heard about it, and there was no follow-up?

EDIT:markup