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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29392. (Read 26609830 times)

hero member
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Quote
Their trapped clients seem to think that Y, the amount of real BTC that MtGOX currently owns, is about 1/3 of X-6000.  Although that perception may change rapidly on faint echos of rumors.

This is ridiculous. How would Gox have only 1/3 of their obligations? Did 2/3 of the total Bitcoins on the exchange get stolen?

Keep in mind, this is a profitable exchange. It seems silly to suggest, without a large-scale theft or other compelling event, that they are so badly insolvent. There were some asset seizures in the past, but that comes nowhere near 2/3 of their deposits - in fact I am fairly certain those few millions have long since been made up by trading fees.

Further: If Gox had been stolen from so dramatically, wouldn't the evidence be in the blockchain? I'm sure someone would have noticed a huge spike in withdrawals.

Er, that 2/3 (now more like 1/2) is not my estimate, it is what their clients apparently believe, given the price that they agreed at MtGOX.

Well, I can think of three ways in which MtGOX could have lost a large part of their coins (and theft is not one of them).  But there may be others.

"Too big to fail" has been said of many companies which failed soon after.  

The reason I suspect that MtGOX is insolvent is because Mark is doing everything that one expects from the CEO of an insolvent company: stalling and delaying payments, communicating only through vague press releases widely spaced  apart, avoiding clients, blaming "the system", moving to a high-security building...

And he is not doing any of the things that he should and could do if MtGOX were not insolvent and he cared about its business and the health of bitcoin. Like, proving that he controls a large stash of coins, giving explicit numbers (even if approximate) about their financial situation, bringing in some competent accountants and programmers, giving interviews about the crisis, checking and processing by hand some large withdrawals...

If MtGOX is not insolvent, Mark is feigning it extraordinarily well.

In any case, wasn't Bitstamp a target as well until recently? Why is nobody concerned about their solvency?

Good question.  Perhaps because few people heard about it, and there was no follow-up?

EDIT:markup
 
hero member
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Why is there so much tolerance to dishonesty in the bitcoin community?
Same as banks and governments then
[/quote]

Governments are usually bought or held hostage by banks, so their "tolerance" is understandable.

Common folk who get screwed by a bank will usually curse it and move to another bank.  But that does not seem to impress their acquaintances much, they will usually continue using that bank even after being told of the incident.

So, indeed, perhaps the problem is not specific to bitcoin exchanegs and their clients...

sr. member
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hero member
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I'm feeling pretty bullish in the short term right now.
hero member
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Can someone explain again the dynamics how the price of goxcoin has an exact reflection on the price of bitstamp on a minute to minute basis? I know that the (possible) reenabling of withdrawals on mtgox has implications for each price but the implications should be somewhat different and have a different type of effect on the price a short term basis. They are trading in two different segregated environments with completely different forces and the fluctuations should at least be different.

legendary
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
full member
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Bad timing, FUDsters. Try again in a few hours. Man, the possibility of a short squeeze has got to be starting to worry you.

Short-squeeze or not short-squeeze, what is known for sure is that there is a lot FIAT sitting on Gox and hardly any coins after that liquidity wipe from 270-90. Meaning, even if just a tiny part of that captial was used to buy-back in, it will/is smear/smearing the charts with green. However, personally, that would be a great time to actually exchange your Goxcoin for FIAT, (the only truly confirmed withdrawal method from Gox atm.) because when Withdrawls in BTC do open, where do you think all those freshly bought GoxCoin via BitcoinBuilder will go? The answer is to the selling floor, but not on Gox...

Enjoy the ride folks!
legendary
Activity: 1120
Merit: 1012
Why is there so much tolerance to dishonesty in the bitcoin community?

Does it have something to do with the libertarian philosophy, in some broad sense of the term? Perhaps those loyal clients think, "The guy is not a scammer, because anyone who lost money to his scam is stupid, and stupid people deserve to lose their money"?

Quite the opposite. People have been trained since birth to allow others to take care of their money for them. They expect a safety net. So, they act accordingly.

When they come upon something which requires user responsibility to protect, they flounder. They don't know how to protect themselves. Bad things happen and they look for someone to blame.

It's not tolerance. I don't enjoy watching scams unfold. I fear that Bitcoin's main flaw is that people are irresponsible and won't be able to handle controlling their own money.  

Then I realize that I managed to do it. If I can do it, anyone can do it.

There is also the notion that Bitcoins aren't money, but tokens that represent money. The same reason casinos use chips instead of cash. When people are holding casino chips, they are more likely to simply gamble them away. It's an abstraction layer. What people need to realize is that Bitcoin is less of an abstraction than their precious fiat. That's going to take time for most of the world.
hero member
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Why is there so much tolerance to dishonesty in the bitcoin community?

It is a good question Jorge.  I think the answer lies in a lack of effective remedies.  What *can* you do if someone in a small Latin American country rips you off?  Answer is likely nothing.

Well, it isn't exactly a "small" Latin American country  Wink

The lack of legal remedies is a complicated issue.  On one hand, that country has laws and a fairly competent police section specialized in inernet crimes, so methinks that the necessary instruments are there.  On the other hand, those bitcoin sites probably work without contracts and receipts, so clients may not be able to prove that they sent in the bitcoins in the first place.   (The blockchain could be used to prove the transfers, if the addresses coud be tied to the persons; but there still would be no evidence of why they were transferred.)

But my question was not about legal redress, but rather why people who know about that incident (including some of his victims) still choose to use his exchange, and leave their money and coins there.

That situation seems similar to that of MtGOX and Bitcoinica; at least, to the extent that the clients of the closed site are still demanding their lost coins from  the exchange owner, without suiccess.  (Is this description correct?)
sr. member
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legendary
Activity: 1106
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Hide your women
Goxcoin @ $250!! 
legendary
Activity: 1106
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Hide your women
Bad timing, FUDsters. Try again in a few hours. Man, the possibility of a short squeeze has got to be starting to worry you.
N12
donator
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I always have in the back of my head that the SecondMarket trust is going liquid "no later than March 2014". We're almost there.. will they sell?
Are they Bitcoin cultists?
sr. member
Activity: 476
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I always have in the back of my head that the SecondMarket trust is going liquid "no later than March 2014". We're almost there.. will they sell?
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
The recent price rise at Gox just screwed me majorly.
legendary
Activity: 1148
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things you own end up owning you
what I really cant get out of my head is the Gox situation, when it is all over and supposedly they will really fix their problems we will see an interesting couple of weeks, the last 10 days have been crazy, hundred thousands of Coins were traded there, if we assume 60% of the coins will be held and only 40% will be sold on other exchanges, this will bring the price to the knees...

I am somehow still confident about the price will dropping but still cant figure out how low to put my orders, 350,400,450,480 ? how low the price will drop is the question now...
hero member
Activity: 669
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Does it have something to do with the libertarian philosophy, in some broad sense of the term?

No, it has to do with idiots.
sr. member
Activity: 469
Merit: 250
English Motherfucker do you speak it ?
Bullish for some days now, but then back to bearmarket again.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
Gox leads and Stamp follows like the good dog it is. Cheesy
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