Dear @windjc, you may un-ignore me now. Apologies for the inconvenience.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29436. (Read 26608412 times)
February 20, 2014, 08:35:39 PM
February 20, 2014, 08:35:16 PM
February 20, 2014, 08:35:01 PM
92.3 on gox
I'm getting sick of gox. I just want it to disappear now.
February 20, 2014, 08:34:43 PM
Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Feb/21
Today Feb/20, Huobi's volume for 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC (3:00--3:59 AM China time) was 1186 BTC, which makes it a False Slumber day
Today also, prices were badly affected by the second Karpeles Catastrophe -- another disappointing press release bt MtGOX.
Given the last fact, it would be wiser not to make any prediction for tomorrow Feb/21. Since we are not wise, we may risk it anyway, and in fact and offer two predictions.
One alternative hypothesis is that the large drop in prices we saw today is temporary, and tomorrow's Slumber Point, if True, will fall near the trend of of the last 10 days. Such a recovery of the trend line after a False Slumber Point was observed after the episodes of Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17. The current trend can be modeled as the straight line P(i) = 4373.18 - 28.64*i, where i is the day's number in February. Setting i = 21 gives ~3772 CNY.
Another possibility is that today's drop is permanent --- like the drop by ~300 CNY on Feb/10, after the First Karpeles Catastrophe. In that case, there seems to be no way of estimating the magnitude of the drop, and the subsequent slope.
The prediction for Bitstamp, as usual, can be obtained from that of Huobi using the currency factor R = 6.12 CNY/USD.
So, under the first hypothesis, we have
Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-02-21, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3772 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 616 USD.
NOTE: To Man it was not given to know his Fate, and the Time of his Death; nor those of Bitcoin.
Today Feb/20, Huobi's volume for 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC (3:00--3:59 AM China time) was 1186 BTC, which makes it a False Slumber day
Today also, prices were badly affected by the second Karpeles Catastrophe -- another disappointing press release bt MtGOX.
Given the last fact, it would be wiser not to make any prediction for tomorrow Feb/21. Since we are not wise, we may risk it anyway, and in fact and offer two predictions.
One alternative hypothesis is that the large drop in prices we saw today is temporary, and tomorrow's Slumber Point, if True, will fall near the trend of of the last 10 days. Such a recovery of the trend line after a False Slumber Point was observed after the episodes of Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17. The current trend can be modeled as the straight line P(i) = 4373.18 - 28.64*i, where i is the day's number in February. Setting i = 21 gives ~3772 CNY.
Another possibility is that today's drop is permanent --- like the drop by ~300 CNY on Feb/10, after the First Karpeles Catastrophe. In that case, there seems to be no way of estimating the magnitude of the drop, and the subsequent slope.
The prediction for Bitstamp, as usual, can be obtained from that of Huobi using the currency factor R = 6.12 CNY/USD.
So, under the first hypothesis, we have
Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-02-21, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3772 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 616 USD.
NOTE: To Man it was not given to know his Fate, and the Time of his Death; nor those of Bitcoin.
February 20, 2014, 08:34:35 PM
bitcoinbuilder down
Maybe he has the brains to call a trading halt.
February 20, 2014, 08:34:14 PM
Twas the night before Goxxing, when all through Mark's house
Not a feature was working, not even Mark's mouse
The bitcoin were slung through trades with despair,
In hopes that St. Solvency soon would be there
-snip-
BeautifulNot a feature was working, not even Mark's mouse
The bitcoin were slung through trades with despair,
In hopes that St. Solvency soon would be there
-snip-
Agreed. Had to quote this to make it easier for me to find, I suspect I will read this through many times...
Thank you humanitee, it gave me many a chuckle.
February 20, 2014, 08:34:08 PM
What's the strategy for people selling on Gox? Surely it's smarter to keep the money in BTC at these prices vs gamble that they can get a fiat withdrawal to go through any time soon.
February 20, 2014, 08:33:58 PM
lol the professor that predicted $10 bitcoins might end up being right
February 20, 2014, 08:33:52 PM
Dear @windjc, could you please put me on "ignore"? Thanks...
Done my friend.
February 20, 2014, 08:33:38 PM
Still 0.367 on bitcoin builder. Madness.
February 20, 2014, 08:33:33 PM
CHOO-CHOO MOTHAFOS !! ROFL
February 20, 2014, 08:33:06 PM
92.3 on gox
Bitstamp is beginning to react as well. This could be a long evening. February 20, 2014, 08:32:31 PM
92.3 on gox
February 20, 2014, 08:32:16 PM
bitcoinbuilder down
February 20, 2014, 08:31:41 PM
Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for feb/20
The prediction for today Feb/20 (like that for Feb/10), was foiled by a Karpeles Catastrophe.
Prediction posted on:Tuesday 2014-02-18Wednesday 2014-02-19, 21:57 UTC
Prediction valid for:Wednesday 2014-02-19Thursday 2014-02-10, 19:00--19:59 UTC
Huobi's predicted price: 3800 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3530 CNY
Error: 270 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 621 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 585 USD
Error: 36 USD
However, Huobis's volume at 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC was 1186 BTC, which technically makes it a False Slumber Point and therefore
outside the scope of the Method. On the other hand, volume in the next hour (20:00 -- 20:59 UTC) was only 146 BTC, which
is well below the Slumber thredhold of 500 BTC.
The Huobi prediction is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below. The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.
The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and prediction. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12. The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.
EDIT: fixed the date of posting (19, not 18) and prediction vaild for (20, not 19).
The prediction for today Feb/20 (like that for Feb/10), was foiled by a Karpeles Catastrophe.
Prediction posted on:
Prediction valid for:
Huobi's predicted price: 3800 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3530 CNY
Error: 270 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 621 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 585 USD
Error: 36 USD
However, Huobis's volume at 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC was 1186 BTC, which technically makes it a False Slumber Point and therefore
outside the scope of the Method. On the other hand, volume in the next hour (20:00 -- 20:59 UTC) was only 146 BTC, which
is well below the Slumber thredhold of 500 BTC.
The Huobi prediction is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below. The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.
The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and prediction. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12. The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.
EDIT: fixed the date of posting (19, not 18) and prediction vaild for (20, not 19).
February 20, 2014, 08:31:28 PM
will we see $0 on Gox?
February 20, 2014, 08:31:12 PM
Bitstamp is starting to topple as well.
February 20, 2014, 08:30:58 PM
It's clearly happening something unusual. I can't believe ppl is selling at this price.
February 20, 2014, 08:30:49 PM
Dear @windjc, could you please put me on "ignore"? Thanks...
February 20, 2014, 08:30:42 PM
Well the good news is Gox can only go down about $93.
I hope it does - if it goes all the way, I'll have 165btc* for less than £0.01
*that I would never see, or be able to withdraw, obviously XD
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