They don't really have coins in Gox, do they? It's the only scenario that makes sense. Which is more likely, from a logistical standpoint; Gox enables BTC withdrawals, or Gox enables USD withdrawals? I think most people would answer BTC withdrawals (in the absence of anything shady going on). So.... If you had one or the other stuck in there, which asset would you roll the dice on? The huge sells down to $13X, or whatever it is now, would indicate that the majority feel it's more likely that they will get USD out of Gox in the future. What? How could anyone believe that? (in the absence of some other knowledge).
The prices being 25% of what they are on other exchanges would suggest that it's a 4:1 majority who feel this way. That's just nuts. If they are insolvent, you aren't getting either (so why trade for the depreciated asset?), and if it's really just a technical glitch, that every other BTC exchange in the world has already fixed, then the expectation would be that Gox should eventually stumble upon the fix as well. Both of these scenarios would lead me to hold BTC, not Goxbux, were I forced to make that choice. Gox has been working to find a bank to process withdrawals for months with no success, all the while they are becoming a less desirable business partner in the eyes of the world. The idea that USD is going to be the winning asset to hold there is the worst possible assumption.
So what am I suggesting? There are no BTC there. They are just moving numbers around inside a ledger for commission, in a desperate bid for solvency. Selling their fake BTC to anyone willing to pay anything, while halting withdrawals on the only known technical glitch which could affect them somehow. Curious they were the first to encounter and announce this huge problem with bitcoin, and the last to sort it out. (Tongue firmly in cheek)
So I'm becoming reasonably certain that insolvency is the real issue, but it's hard to know how deep in it they are. If it's just a few thousand BTC, perhaps this stunt will close the gap. They buy back the BTC they owe on other exchanges or OTC with all the commission they took selling fake coins, and limit withdrawals exactly right to slowly climb back into the black, and nobody ever knows how close they came to collapse. But if it's an impossibly wide gap, they waited too long, and no stunt is going to close it, what are they doing right now? Maybe they are trying to work out a deal with a large BTC holder to cover their position until they can right the ship in exchange for part of the commissions. I can't think of any other good way out of it.
The problem is that MtGox PR department has been terrible up to this point. Otherwise I'm guessing the panic wouldn't be as crazy. And one of the theories is it's easier to sue based on a $$$ value rather than amount of BTC value.
