Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29636. (Read 26709752 times)

That is what amazes me most. They don't care about any damage control whatsoever.
If this was my company i'd update every 30 mins if needed. But Mark doesn't give a shit.

They switched to "bitcoin btc-e daily" for me, means they force close you position every day. They are shady fucks as well, not much better than Gox.

Great. I come here for some insight and the discussion is on animal noises.
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I know...sorry...I've been here for 10 hours talking endless gox.

And it was either that or an argument about Win7 or Win8....let's face it, learning that a cat goes 'nya' in Japanese is faaaaaar more interesting than that.

They created the panic in the first place, I think it is their intention to keep it this way. HIGHLY unethical.

It is a tantalizing thought especially if you've been in Bitcoin a while and have realized gains over initial investment.

Great. I come here for some insight and the discussion is on animal noises.
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The never ending photos of bears and trains and rockets is more to your liking?

Nice graphic , each exchange live in his own world since Gox problem , with different prices , but similar graphics!

plus500.co.uk is still quoting MtGox, but since they re-opended after their weekly downtime (sun 12-2pm) trading was only possible for a few minutes. Price is ticking, but trading disabled. Perhaps they are having discussions about a switch ... would be wise.
Stamp would be a much better choice than BTC-e ... but I guess they much be in favour of wild cards like that spike down to $102
Watch this space.
Certainly seems like the safest way to play the Gox price if you want to. No way I would wire money to Gox, but I would take Plus500 CP risk for a short term punt ...


Oh yeh, cows in the UK definitely go mooooo ... except the mad ones, which go like this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gi5IEjeH6E

I NEVER declared bitcoin "dead", not even when may people were screaming so. (Talking of strawmen... 

I still wish that it will succed. I am skeptical that it will. (Desires should not be confused with forecasts.) But I believe that it will stay alive for years (unless a really serious bug is found, or the US decides to ban it -- both very unlikely in my view).


Not at all.  While probablilities are ultimately subjective, in many cases most people will assign roughly similar probabilities.  And when people share what they know about something, their probability estimates usually converge.

Everybody will agree that the chance of snake eyes at dice is 1/36, for example.  While diferent people will assign different probabilities to "a whale will fall from the sky into the Grand Canyon",  most will pick a very small number.

For a more complicated situation, closer to the issue, consider investing on oil industry stock.  Seasoned investors know a lot about the science, technology, economics, and companies in the field.  They have data on how often such and such kind of field yielded so much oil, and so on.  Thus the probabilities they assign to future events are often shared by other investors, and if they make money in a string of investments, that is empirical evidence that their algorithms are good.  They should all assign low probability to there being oil under Campinas, and hence would say, with authority, that a company that proposes to dig there is a bad investment.

For bitcoin, however, there is no history of similar projects that one could point to in order to change other people's assumed probabilities.  It is an "internet based project", sure; but that class is so vast and varied that it would be foolish to use its frequency of success as probability of bitcoin's success.

Bitcoin has many unique key features, such as the need for cooperation of thousand volunteers players to maintain the blockchain up-to-date under a very tight protocol, in exchange for a reward whose value depends on a speculative market.

Most successful internet innovations - -Google, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon,  etc. -- are not at all like that. Wikipedia depends on a network of volunteers too, but it has cetralized control and processing, has only loose protocols about format, no timing requirements, no material reward, etc.  GNU/Linux is almost decentralized but has even less requirements.

Tor and BitTorrent may be more similar, but again the motivations are different and they are intended for a niche "market" with little money involved.

So, without a string of "similar" projects to serve as a guide, what information could people use to pick their probabilities of Bitcoin succeding in various ways?  My probabilities are largely based on my understanding of the world, how I expect that governments, banks and people will react to it, etc. I can share some of that information and perhaps change other people's perceptions a little; but there is much in my head that I could not convey in a lifetime,  and much that is subconscious too.


Basically, a good investment is one that has expected return per year comparable to the best predictable returns out there, over the time scale one is willing to wait and one's probabilities hold.  That is usually 5% to 10% per year.  So if you are 90% certain that the price will go up by 10% over the next year, and 99% certain that it will not crash below 50%, the expected return will be about 8% at least, so it would be a good investment -- in your view. 

But use slightly more pessimistic probabilities, and the expected return will be much lower, easily negative.


That is my point, you cannot tell whether one investment was good or bad investment (perhaps we should say, "wise or dumb"?) from its outcome.  If someone makes a series of similar investments, and makes money on the average, then you can say that his way of assigning probabilities and choosing investments must have some merit.

So, why do I say that bitcoin is a terrible investment in absolute terms, not just "for me"?  Because if we were to tell to an unbiased and non-naive investor all the negative arguments, and omitted all the positive arguments that are no longer true, I am sure he would assign such probabilities to the possible future prices that his expected return will be very negative.

Telling someone only that "investing in bitcoin has a large expected return" is misleading, very close to scamming.  Ditto for telling him only the positive arguments without the negative ones (like all salesmen and advertisers do) .  At the very least, you should start by showing the potential investor this chart, and then try to explain why you think that it is not important.

I haven't heard that fiat withdrawals have stopped for anyone outside the U.S. So if someone in the vast world believes Gox will not resume BTC withdrawals then perhaps he is selling his BTC for any amount he can to get out. It's panic at the disco.

I wouldn't rule out something shady either, however, though it'd be pretty disappointing. While over the years it has been oddly run, it has been one of the few relatively safe havens in the Bitcoin realm.

The varying onomatopoeia for animal noises across cultures is very interesting - for example while dogs in English go 'woof', in Korean (IRC) they go 'bow wow'.  The noise for pigs varies quite dramatically too.
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Great. I come here for some insight and the discussion is on animal noises.

In Japanese dogs say "WAN" cats say "nya" cows say "mow" tigers say "gao" and elephants say "powan".

Wow Gox! Thats incredible. $220?!!?  


!!!!!!!

The varying onomatopoeia for animal noises across cultures is very interesting - for example while dogs in English go 'woof', in Korean (IRC) they go 'bow wow'.  The noise for pigs varies quite dramatically too.

To think, a few weeks ago China was the big bad wolf.

China's got nothing on Gox! "We" (very broadly speaking of course) really f***ed ourselves over, no help from China needed at all!

Have a look into what instruments they are offering

Seems the storm is steady now for MTgox. Small walls, price stabalizing slowely.

Fuck me. A low of 220 is just insane. Never again.

in which language the cow goes mooooo ? English ? hahahahaah

or in certain situations "withdrools..."