Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29641. (Read 26709650 times)

Might get my $4 coin after all...

Getting it out is another story all together though.

I haven't sold because we really don't know what's going on exactly at MtGox. This makes the market really unpredictable, nobody here knows how far Gox is going to slide down and what the manipulators with inside knowledge are planning there. If I had any fiat left on Bitstamp I would probably be placing my buy orders around the $550 mark and ready to do a market buy if MtGox comes out with positive news tomorrow. But I just don't feel like gambling with the coins I have right now, I really don't want to end up with fewer coins after this is all over.

247! whee! i bought back in at 920 !!

i was fearing it would break ath myself. but...  it is not really a functioning market at gox. the price there is not the real price. so it actually does not imply anything.


edit: besides the complete detachment of the gox universe

@erdogan:

This is the article I was referring to. The author does not seem to be completely clueless about China.
[WARNING] besides being a bit old, the article is very anti-bitcoin. [/WARNING]

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1404497/bitcoin-bubble-wont-last-without-beijings-approval?page=all

Pretty awesome.

lol

Late reply, because, well, time zones. Not sure if we can pick up the discussion again.

My first question was, when would you consider Bitcoin a success. So "success" of btc would be, in your eyes, it being a useful (independent of political ambitions) Internet payment system. Fair enough.

It is, in my opinion, a bit silly to be *negative* about this aspect after a) btc only being around 5 years, and b) after a number of rather positive developments in the past 2 years.

To go into more detail: True, you cannot pay for your hotel room in China yet with Bitcoin, but that would have been a bit like asking Tim Berners-Lee, after he introduced you to HTTP, if you can already stream high-quality porn on it. He couldn't, so why not continue using VHS, you could have said. No improvement there.

I'm being a bit facetious here, but I'm sure you'll get my point: there is a time to declare an attempt dead (like, say, Sanger's Citizendium, which started with a great idea to improve on Wikipedia's sometimes anti-academic climate, but which is absolutely going *nowhere*, for years), and then there's *prematurely* declaring something dead. If you already want to declare our little experiment failed, 5 years after introduction, after reaching a market cap north of 10B USD, VC funding probably in the range of a few hundred million USD, and a so far small, but not completely uninteresting group of merchants accepting BTC, then I think that squarely falls under "prematurely declaring it dead".

In other words: being skeptic is recommended. And if the question is, "should you invest in it?", then there are good reasons *not* to invest... there's still a very real chance btc will be replaced by an alternative currency, or will only stay marginally useful. But that's the answer to the question "should I put my money into it, right now". Which is heavily dependent on your personal risk preferences. While the question that you seem to bring is subtly different: do we have evidence that Bitcoin is going nowhere/is most likely going to fail. And for that, I have yet to see any real evidence (neither the US nor the EU have taken a prohibitive stance towards it, not major flaw in the protocol has been revealed -- those would be "catastrophic" events, imo).


About your 2nd point, in response to my question, when Bitcoin would be a good investment, you answered that you cannot determine the probabilities of an event like how btc will develop, so any post hoc reasoning is moot, and then you go on to compare it to Russian roulette.

That is a straw man if I have ever seen one. According to that strict interpretation of probabilities and their application to real life events, *all* investments are equally good or bad, and there is no way to make an informed decision.

And just like that, our market driven economy just crumbled to dust. Hope you're happy now

Where I'm going with this is:

Cut out the investing rationale. Simply *assume* for a moment that (through intuition, or TA) an investor has a way to roughly predict the price function of USD/BTC. My question was: which USD/BTC price function would qualify as a good investment of that (perhaps hypothetically knowledgeable) investor.

Obviously, if price kept on falling now, never to reach 1000 USD again, everyone who invested in the last 3 months could conclude it was a bad investment. If however price recovers, and keeps on rising, there is really no meaningful way to declare it a "bad investment" until at some point it doesn't recover anymore.

That was my idea behind the second question: if there simply never is a point during our life time where btc price will fall so drastically that it never recovers, then it is plain bizarre to call it a "bad investment" in retrospect. The comparison to lotterey tickets or Russian roulette is not applicable, because in those cases the EV is known to be negative, while in all economic decisions, the probabilities are not known, and the risk one takes on in investing is directly related to the possible returns he expects to see.

So that *still* doesn't say you should invest in btc, but it is at odds with assumptions about economical behavior made in any other market to basically say that, no matter how btc price develops, it will never "have been a good investment, because it was impossible to know the chance of success ahead of time".

In even simpler terms: if, say, investing early on in Microsoft was  a "good investment", then investing in Bitcoin (until now, unless we never recover from this correction) was a "good investment" as well. If, on the other hand, because of the inherent uncertainty re: outcomes investing in Bitcoin can never be a good investment, then investing in MSFT wasn't a good investment either. And in that case, all of stock trading essentially became meaningless.

All we need is some balls

We got some bulls!

9:33pm here on Sunday.

ATH broken. Reenactment of April 10 flashcrash?

your correct I still jumped the gun lol,

check what time it is in japan almost the 17th lol

Down the rabbit hole we go..

Press release says update on Monday, so the 17th

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20140215-BTC-transfers.pdf

i love bit coin, have my 6 btc stuck on gox that could have been 25 btc had i not paid the 200$ premium to get OUT of gox and waited a week with my full fiat balance, but then got stuck in limbo for 1.5 weeks before deemed totally unwithdrawable, surprise! goxxed, goxxed, goxxed and goxxed

Even those of you on bitstamp holding btc right now I'm scratching my head as to why you haven't sold, 400$ price difference at this point lmao... gox is obviously a roach motel and I'd be lucky to get my profit BTC out of them.  Now i'm at 0 profit looking for a new buy in on stamp.

Put this in perspective, you have got the exchange feeding into bloomberg reporting sub 266 prices.. You have the one exchange paying out 400$ above the quoted (shit) mtgox exchange

You have bit coins in wallets flowing into bitstamp just in case

If Gox goes down totally, price will plummet everywhere

If gox opens with drawals people who picked up 260$ bit coins will instantly go for 400$ profit on an exchange that allows $ with drawls

Where exactly is the upside of holding btc now, except for if your btc is stuck on gox?

If you're on bitstamp and haven't sold yet I'm not sure what's going through your head

Obviously not, but it is not pure guess either. I read somewhere an article discussing why Bitcoin became so popular in China, and it hinted at that sort of demographics.

If you are referring to my question about needing a wallet to open an account at Huobi, I already answered that.  I had asked because someone suggested that wallet app download statistics could be a way to estimate the number of active clients in each country.  I believe it is not a reliable indicator.

EDIT: markup

BTCe needs some Xanax as usually

There it is. sub 266 on gox