Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29676.

F-bernanke

sr. member

Activity: 308

Merit: 250

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 15, 2014, 04:42:09 AM

Quote from: F-bernanke on February 15, 2014, 04:36:29 AM

Quote from: Richy_T on February 15, 2014, 04:31:50 AM

The Gox premium will be back in a heartbeat. However, anyone without some real stones of steel will be buying at any price to get out of the Gox trap.

I'm calling 1000$ coins (+-$50) on Gox IF gox enables btc withdrawals, maybe we should set up a poll?

I'll take the under, but I don't think you're crazy.

Some visuals:

Spread betweein Stamp en GOX:

creekbore

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968

Billy? Billy? Anyone...please

gizmoh

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1000

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 15, 2014, 04:46:38 AM

Quote from: gizmoh on February 15, 2014, 04:15:26 AM

If Gox continue to delay or imposes New quota on btc withdrawal, market will assume Gox is nearly insolvent. Price plummets.

I don't think that the hypothetical failure of MtGOX would have any immediate effect on prices. If they are insolvent, the virtual coins and virtual dollars that are in their cllient's accounts do not actually exist, so they will not enter or leave the market. Traders who have their assets on other exchanges will not be surprised, and should not care.

Howeve, if the "oldest and most prestigious" exchange fails, it will probably be all over the mainstream news media, and will scare more potential investors away from bitcoin. Since I believe that bitcoin is a terrible investment, I think that will be a good thing; but it will depress the price even further over the next few weeks.

A major news agency already sent out news that "price of bitcoin drops 50% in a few hours". Not surprising since many chart sites still show MtGOX's price by default, or put it at the top of their menus.

If MtGOX is not insolvent, when they resume withdrawals most clients will probably take their coins to other exchanges, and move their money to safer investments. That will probably have an immediate negative effect on the price.

Many here tend to underestimate gravity of Gox collpase. According to Alexa ranking, Gox is still twice as popular as Bitstamp. Last wave of newcomers bought mainly from Gox. Many early adopters with big balances like Billy trusted Gox. Their volume is currently equivalent to stamp.
Lets not ignore that Gox customers ( including myself) have coins in cold storage or on other exchanges also.
When you lose thousands/millions of dollars/asset, one would hedge his losses by liquidating/realizing profits from stored coins. That's what i would personally do. A long bear market would ensue IMO.

ShroomsKit

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

Quote from: TERA on February 15, 2014, 04:53:39 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on February 15, 2014, 04:51:04 AM

Quote from: TERA on February 15, 2014, 04:21:28 AM

I'm tired of this bullstamp. where is bearstamp.

We've been going down for 2 months. At what point is it enough for you? When all the investors left and nobody is will to buy coins anymore? That good enough for you? Will that make you happy? Cheap coins right?

I see 2 weeks, not 2 months.

I NEVER get an answer to these questions. So when is it enough for you people? When we're at 1200 you guys scream down down down! At 800 the same. At 350. What's the point? What do you want? When is it enough?

ShroomsKit

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

Does anybody have any idea how much that 1 guy on Gox already dumped?

I like that actually. It's better this way then suddenly in 1 go when we're at 1000.
The fact that he's dumping at these prices either means he's very rich and doesn't care, needs money right now or fears we won't ever go up again anymore.

F-bernanke

sr. member

Activity: 308

Merit: 250

Quote from: NWOreptilian on February 15, 2014, 04:57:01 AM

Quote from: F-bernanke on February 15, 2014, 04:36:29 AM

Quote from: Richy_T on February 15, 2014, 04:31:50 AM

The Gox premium will be back in a heartbeat. However, anyone without some real stones of steel will be buying at any price to get out of the Gox trap.

I'm calling 1000$ coins (+-$50) on Gox IF gox enables btc withdrawals, maybe we should set up a poll?

nah still too high. No more than 900 for the next month or two. I don't think BTC has the tenacity to reach that 1000+ threshold.

I'm only talking about goxBTC.

creekbore

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968

Quote from: kurious on February 15, 2014, 04:54:17 AM

Quote from: gizmoh on February 15, 2014, 04:43:11 AM

Quote from: medialab101 on February 15, 2014, 04:19:27 AM

Quote

If Gox enables btc withdrawals, arbitrage will lower price on Bitstamp.

I imagine the price will go up on Gox with the impending fix in place. By the time it is actually live there may only be a $100 difference.

Sure, price will jump on gox. But the main buyer left will be Billy cause he's been the main seller.
In this current price range, volume traded in this range is over 80,000 btc, while the accumulation of coins is spread over thousands of buyers.

If they ever do open the door - the stampede will be fast.

I have a small amount of coins left in there I could not get out my last transfer was stuck and was 'kindly' returned to my account as the door was bolted.

The gamble for gox is that the price will shoot up as people buy coins to simply get out, which would look good for a while.

Of course the only people buying will be (initially) doing so to get out.

I have not traded there at all since - I just want my coins out. Forever.

I can't see them opening up 'just like that' any time soon - they must realise all liquidity could disappear very quickly.

If they are smart - they announce zero fees and limited withdrawals and hope the price rise brings confidence back.

But really for me the only solution is to sell gox, or announce a deal with a credible partner with deep pockets to bring confidence back.

I'm in the same boat..few coins stuck on there that were 'returned' and I've refused to give them any more trading fees.

Can someone tell me who "Billy" is doing the selling...seems I missed another meeting.

NWOreptilian

newbie

Activity: 20

Merit: 0

Quote from: F-bernanke on February 15, 2014, 04:36:29 AM

Quote from: Richy_T on February 15, 2014, 04:31:50 AM

The Gox premium will be back in a heartbeat. However, anyone without some real stones of steel will be buying at any price to get out of the Gox trap.

I'm calling 1000$ coins (+-$50) on Gox IF gox enables btc withdrawals, maybe we should set up a poll?

nah still too high. No more than 900 for the next month or two. I don't think BTC has the tenacity to reach that 1000+ threshold.

billyjoeallen

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1007

Hide your women

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 15, 2014, 04:46:38 AM

Since I believe that bitcoin is a terrible investment, I think that will be a good thing; but it will depress the price even further over the next few weeks.

Funny, a lot of people who think bitcoin is a wonderful investment want the price to go down also. They want MOAR.

What would it take for you to admit you're wrong about Bitcoin, Jorge? What set of conditions? What would have to happen?

kurious

legendary

Activity: 2604

Merit: 1748

Quote from: gizmoh on February 15, 2014, 04:43:11 AM

Quote from: medialab101 on February 15, 2014, 04:19:27 AM

Quote

If Gox enables btc withdrawals, arbitrage will lower price on Bitstamp.

I imagine the price will go up on Gox with the impending fix in place. By the time it is actually live there may only be a $100 difference.

Sure, price will jump on gox. But the main buyer left will be Billy cause he's been the main seller.
In this current price range, volume traded in this range is over 80,000 btc, while the accumulation of coins is spread over thousands of buyers.

If they ever do open the door - the stampede will be fast.

I have a small amount of coins left in there I could not get out my last transfer was stuck and was 'kindly' returned to my account as the door was bolted.

The gamble for gox is that the price will shoot up as people buy coins to simply get out, which would look good for a while.

Of course the only people buying will be (initially) doing so to get out.

I have not traded there at all since - I just want my coins out. Forever.

I can't see them opening up 'just like that' any time soon - they must realise all liquidity could disappear very quickly.

If they are smart - they announce zero fees and limited withdrawals and hope the price rise brings confidence back.

But really for me the only solution is to sell gox, or announce a deal with a credible partner with deep pockets to bring confidence back.

TERA

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: ShroomsKit on February 15, 2014, 04:51:04 AM

Quote from: TERA on February 15, 2014, 04:21:28 AM

I'm tired of this bullstamp. where is bearstamp.

We've been going down for 2 months. At what point is it enough for you? When all the investors left and nobody is will to buy coins anymore? That good enough for you? Will that make you happy? Cheap coins right?

I see 2 weeks, not 2 months.

ShroomsKit

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

Quote from: TERA on February 15, 2014, 04:21:28 AM

I'm tired of this bullstamp. where is bearstamp.

We've been going down for 2 months. At what point is it enough for you? When all the investors left and nobody is willing to buy coins anymore? That good enough for you? Will that make you happy? Cheap coins right?

Kramerc

sr. member

Activity: 397

Merit: 250

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 15, 2014, 04:38:45 AM

Getting BTC in and out is MUCH less time consuming that fiat xfers. The price differential may disappear or even flip by the time you do that.

What's the point to send BTC there quickly, price would skyrocket but Gox is insolvent and can't pay you up? At least if you send money you can buy BTC and there's a better chance of being able to withdraw.

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Quote from: gizmoh on February 15, 2014, 04:15:26 AM

If Gox continue to delay or imposes New quota on btc withdrawal, market will assume Gox is nearly insolvent. Price plummets.

I don't think that the hypothetical failure of MtGOX would have any immediate effect on prices. If they are insolvent, the virtual coins and virtual dollars that are in their cllient's accounts do not actually exist, so they will not enter or leave the market. Traders who have their assets on other exchanges will not be surprised, and should not care.

Howeve, if the "oldest and most prestigious" exchange fails, it will probably be all over the mainstream news media, and will scare more potential investors away from bitcoin. Since I believe that bitcoin is a terrible investment, I think that will be a good thing; but it will depress the price even further over the next few weeks.

A major news agency already sent out news that "price of bitcoin drops 50% in a few hours". Not surprising since many chart sites still show MtGOX's price by default, or put it at the top of their menus.

If MtGOX is not insolvent, when they resume withdrawals most clients will probably take their coins to other exchanges, and move their money to safer investments. That will probably have an immediate negative effect on the price.

el_rlee

legendary

Activity: 1600

Merit: 1014

Quote from: gizmoh on February 15, 2014, 04:43:11 AM

Quote from: medialab101 on February 15, 2014, 04:19:27 AM

Quote

If Gox enables btc withdrawals, arbitrage will lower price on Bitstamp.

I imagine the price will go up on Gox with the impending fix in place. By the time it is actually live there may only be a $100 difference.

Sure, price will jump on gox. But the main buyer left will be Billy cause he's been the main seller.
In this current price range, volume traded in this range is over 80,000 btc, while the accumulation of coins is spread over thousands of buyers.

The price snap back at Mt.Gox will be biblical. People are so pissed of, and getting fiat withdrawals working will not be so easy.
Look what they are now willing to sell a Bitcoin for, even they cannot get the money out, imagine what they will be willing to pay for a Bitcoin which they are able to withdraw immediately.

gizmoh

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1000

Quote from: medialab101 on February 15, 2014, 04:19:27 AM

Quote

If Gox enables btc withdrawals, arbitrage will lower price on Bitstamp.

I imagine the price will go up on Gox with the impending fix in place. By the time it is actually live there may only be a $100 difference.

Sure, price will jump on gox. But the main buyer left will be Billy cause he's been the main seller.
In this current price range, volume traded in this range is over 80,000 btc, while the accumulation of coins is spread over thousands of buyers.

billyjoeallen

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1007

Hide your women

Quote from: F-bernanke on February 15, 2014, 04:36:29 AM

Quote from: Richy_T on February 15, 2014, 04:31:50 AM

The Gox premium will be back in a heartbeat. However, anyone without some real stones of steel will be buying at any price to get out of the Gox trap.

I'm calling 1000$ coins (+-$50) on Gox IF gox enables btc withdrawals, maybe we should set up a poll?

I'll take the under, but I don't think you're crazy.

billyjoeallen

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1007

Hide your women

Quote from: Kramerc on February 15, 2014, 04:34:41 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 15, 2014, 04:28:10 AM

Quote from: medialab101 on February 15, 2014, 04:07:43 AM

Quote

To answer your question, depositing bitcoin now would put you in a good position for when the withdrawals resume and the Gox discount once again becomes the Gox premium.

I agree with you buy most would say it's an insane risk because they may be insolvent and this whole debacle has just been a ruse to buy time.

Of course it's an insane risk, but that doesn't mean somebody won't try it. They might even succeed.

Would it not be smarter to just arbitrage, selling the coins on stamp, sending money over at Gox and buying coins cheaply, waiting the price to skyrocket there? Why would one risk his bitcoins, when it would actually be safer (in case of MtGox being insolvent) to just wire fiat money?

Getting BTC in and out is MUCH less time consuming that fiat xfers. The price differential may disappear or even flip by the time you do that.

F-bernanke

sr. member

Activity: 308

Merit: 250

Quote from: Richy_T on February 15, 2014, 04:31:50 AM

The Gox premium will be back in a heartbeat. However, anyone without some real stones of steel will be buying at any price to get out of the Gox trap.

I'm calling 1000$ coins (+-$50) on Gox IF gox enables btc withdrawals, maybe we should set up a poll?

Kramerc

sr. member

Activity: 397

Merit: 250

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 15, 2014, 04:28:10 AM

Quote from: medialab101 on February 15, 2014, 04:07:43 AM

Quote

To answer your question, depositing bitcoin now would put you in a good position for when the withdrawals resume and the Gox discount once again becomes the Gox premium.

I agree with you buy most would say it's an insane risk because they may be insolvent and this whole debacle has just been a ruse to buy time.

Of course it's an insane risk, but that doesn't mean somebody won't try it. They might even succeed.

Would it not be smarter to just arbitrage, selling the coins on stamp, sending money over at Gox and buying coins cheaply, waiting the price to skyrocket there? Why would one risk his bitcoins, when it would actually be safer (in case of MtGox being insolvent) to just wire fiat money?

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29676. (Read 26709477 times)