Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29777. (Read 26712310 times)

I wonder what the Chinese investors expect from Bitcoin.

Since their government has banned the use of cryptocoins as currency, they cannot possibly believe in the old spiel: "One day there will be no Yuan, only bitcoins; so divdiding A by B it is obvious that each bitcoin will be worth a fortune".  They know that bitcoin will "never" be used for payments, much less replace the Yuan.

So, I suspect that there are no "hodlers" in China, except perhaps some ignorant guys who have been told just the conclusion of that spiel, and believed it without understanding why.

I suspect that practically all the investors in China see bitcoin only as a suitable speculation object, and look forward only to its price rising just enough and soon enough for them to make a good profit -- in Yuan.

For them, bitcoin trading itself must be just a form of gambling.

Fair enough...  I hear you... but the whole buying in and selling thing is not for me personally, as for me there is no point.. my strategy thus far negates the need

 I am not a miner never have been.. but I have been buying for a long while,  I buy dips and trade alts to increase my BTC, and I also have invested in an alt or two, and I actually now take most of my wages in BTC, and I spend it where I can... and I know a good group who are all doing the same... I am trying to get more and more local businesses to accept BTC and I am in the process of looking to intergrate taking payments in BTC for the business I currently manage. Most of my friends are now BTC hodlers and buyers and only one of them a miner-  though I am talking to my friends about setting up some nodes.   Also I do not think guys with angry girlfriends running a few little rigs in their little flats are propping up the market... there are guys with underground caves being powered by geothermal power right now with asic farms that would make your eyes water.. and I do not even think that is what is propping up the market... but assuming that they are... sure money is not endless but the players coming into the game with those set ups, and the ones already established in the game they gotz funding...  most of the players coming into the game (not just in mining) now have gots funding and deep deep wallets and are playing a long term game...  I am also playing a long term game... and the price movement of the past month, few months does not surprise me...  the market is going to decide for sure... I still see the fundamentals as strong... I guess we will have to wait and see .... for me the key is not price, not at all the key is adoption rate and user figures, can the network growth do its thing for a few more cycles? I think that the money coming into the ecosystem at this point is banking on YES, which is why they are coming into the game and coming with depe pockets and will do all they can to make it work, which gives me confidence... and if this remains true and we do get another few cycles of the network effect play out. then to me the long term fundamantals still look good.. not certain but good... and that would mean another set of parabolic price rises as time goes by.

I am mostly interested in adoption and use rates not the price.

One of the greatest failings of humanity is its failure to understand the exponential function.

(That being said BTC has in my mind over the next 1-3 years got a binary outcome)

Your Ignore List includes more people than the value a of Gox-BTC.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/11/21/finally-a-proper-use-for-bitcoin-avoiding-capital-controls/

If you don't understand how black markets work, that's a separate issue, but there will always be black markets were there are willing buyers and sellers of prohibited goods and services. Did prohibition stop alcohol consumption? War on drugs stop weed smoking? Nobody uses prostitutes or gambles where it's forbidden? Technology that aids smugglers, contraband sellers and other free marketeers will always be in demand. Even the hypocritical State functionaries will use it.

Superior crypto would need a better system for creating new coins, since proof-of-work is not a smart way to create coins. The increase of miners should increase the security of network, and therefor give more value to BTC, but because the miners are pooled together, there is no increase in security. So resources are spent without any new gain. I think that Proof-of-Stake is more advanced, but I don't know any proof-of-stake coin that can hold on it's own. But I do bet that there will be a new wave of better quality coins. What we would need is an software company with experience and financial backing to create a coin. As long as coins are created by students or hobbyists, we won't see any serious competition to BTC.

Of course, money is always based on trust. Trust that you can use money to trade value without any unnecessary loss.
I think that bitcoin won't lose it's trust because of the flaws in software code, but it will lose faith because of the flawed market system. When there are no consequences to create a "scam exchange" that can play the competent exchange role for a year, just to gain trust, and then to run away with their customers money, then the market system is far from being secure. Most bitcoin enthusiasts are religious on the subject, and they actually believe that the market will be fine, since everyone has faith in the future of bitcoin and won't start "scam exchanges" because they can get more profit with legal methods.
But there are people out there who can see Bitcoin just as an temporal phenomenon and those people are motivated to build an exchange just to run away with their customers money. And they can actually do this without "running away", because they can just blame it on being a victim of hacking, lost database or whatever, and they won't see any jailtime.

I just had a vision of Chinese people in gambling dens betting bitcoin on cock fights.

How many coins are being mined these days?   At the price they would fetch outside China, would they be enough for significant evasion?

I don't think that those coins would be easy or safe to get. How would the evaders contact the miners and pay them?  Big miners have large installations and huge electricity bills, they cannot easily hide from the government.

To your other points, what will a superior crypto have that Bitcoin lacks?

Are privatized money systems based on trust?

How many coins are being mined these days?   At the price they would fetch outside China, would they be enough for significant evasion?

I don't think that those coins would be easy or safe to get. How would the evaders contact the miners and pay them?  Big miners have large installations and huge electricity bills, they cannot easily hide from the government.

They just did that a few month ago , didn't they?

Slowest people should sell at the bottom, like always. It will also be like this right now, but the process will take a lot longer then needed.
I think that it is healthy to tell the market about their mistakes and how they were stupid. As I said, this market needs some criticism to bring people back to reality.

There are many miners in China. The Chinese could buy or trade from them even if all the exchanges closed.

Attack? This is uber-bullish. If JP Morgan had to write a detailed report in order to shit on BTC it means they are pooping their pants. They are seriously concerned.

Great.

Chinese may have a Communist government, but it's mainly so in name only. When it comes to the sensibilities of economics, they take a far more liberal stance, than most "democracies".

Chinese may have a Communist government, but it's mainly so in name only. When it comes to the sensibilities of economics, they take a far more liberal stance, than most "democracies".

Retesting 30 day lows is a rally? I'm so cornfused.

And you turning bearish on the price , that's one bad sign.

I didn't say that the price should be controlled, I told that the marker should have been smarter. There is a difference.



So who the fuck was supposed to sell at the bottom to make this smart transition and how would that be smart? What an asshole!  It should go down more so it can go up more, right? I guess you are whining that you didn't get enough of an opportunity to prey on panic sellers.

The market is the market, douchenozzle. That's like saying the weather should be smarter. It's not even coherent enough to be wrong.

Gox starting a rally, time to buy