Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29784. (Read 26711605 times)

I enjoyed the Btc-e crash. Only wish I would have kept money aside for 100$. Bought in at $400.

and gone it is...

Not sure.  Too many conflicting opinions for me to make sense of.  I'm just watching that 1600 bid wall at 501 getting slowly eaten up.  If it goes away there doesn't seem to be much support which to my mind means some more down pressure.

So what's your take on Gox?  Insolvent?  Fix right around the corner?

I don't think I've ever hit the bottom or the top.  Close counts.

I as well .. and I hate picking bottoms.

someone wants out; someone wants in

 

Buyers will win

Good points traderCJ.

The fact is that everyone who trades as little as one satoshi is speculating about the future price of the miners reward.

I'm long-term bullish, short-term bearish, and completely mercenary.

You're a believer.  You'd hold on to your coins even if they dropped to $1.  Fair enough.  Meanwhile, many of us are speculating, and doing quite well at it.  Don't let my join date fool you, I went all in awhile back and have done quite well.  The trading patterns of the Chinese (at one time) were extremely predictable and anyone with half a brain could expand their stash by dumping before they woke up to whatever bad news was awaiting them.  There is nothing wrong with being reasonably skeptical about Bitcoin and profiting from other people's mistakes.

If the day ever comes that you spend your time learning about the bitcoin eco-system and the developments that are happening across the world and stop staring at time tables about when the Chinese sleep, you will have a lot less doubts.

Meanwhile you continue to aspouse untruths. China has not led this market since $17. Anyone who has watched the movement of the exchanges knows which exchanges led those movements and when. Again, your highly literal mind gets fixated on certain points giving them way too much weight - like volume leads.

When in fact, you have no idea which exchange actually has more fiat deposted historically in it and when that fiat actually entered. All you see is # of bitcoins traded.

Wallmanship used to mean something I tell ya...

As with most things in China there's always a difference between the official version of events and the reality, especially the further away you travel from Beijing.   But your hours make sense; however, I do tend to agree with Windy that the influence of the Chinese market is waning now.

Since the big flash crash of December 18th I think BTC has become more mature in its reliance on any single national market - although obviously there is still a US-centricism that is unhealthy.

Well, one can see from the hourly volume charts at bitcoinwisdom that Huobi's clients start trading around 07:00 06:00 am Beijing time and stop around 02:00 01:00 am.  There is almost zero trade between 03:00 02:00 am and 06:00 05:00 am.

One can also see that they sleep trade until later on certain days and wake up somewhat later the next day.

OKCoin's volume varies in a daily cycle but does not stop completely at night. Either their clientele is more scattered, or there are unsupervised robots trading there.

But anyway it seems that the whole of China is a single time zone, even though it would normally span several times 15 degrees.  It makes economic sense to synchronize working hours over the whole country, but I do not know whether they sync their sleep hours too.

EDIT: fixed local times (UTC+08:00 not UTC+09:00)

I meant out of GOX, but yeah, some will want out of BTC aswel, they might have the plan to get out entirely, but they see the price rise, human greed comes into play and they decide to HODL.
This is a very unpredictable scenario.

Right because people want out, and where will those BTC flow? How many of those BTC will end up with a sell market orders on stamp?

It's this dilution of the market and specialisation of coins that worries me the most.

When I first started exploring alt coins there were less than half a dozen.  Now I can't keep up: everytime I make fun of the ridiculousness of them, reality trumps me.  

next week

That's what I was seeing when i got onboard, got me addicted! Sigh... maybe some day, maybe some day it's upon us again.

Indeed, no one seems to be looking at them. There seems to be some strong ideological/religious/wishful-thinking barrier that prevents people from even considering the possibility that China might be relevant to the evolution of prices in other markets.


Exactly!

For example, banks were closed in China from jan/30 to feb/05; the Chinese could not get money into or out of the exchanges, so the price at all exchanges in the world (except broken ones like MtGOX and BTC-China) stagnated for that whole week.

Then banks reopened feb/06 or feb/07, and the Chinese could take money out of their exchanges.  Coincidentally, the price at all exchanges in the world started to fall in sync.

Actually, since April last year the price of bitcoin at all exchanges in the world has been almost entirely determined by the Chinese investors.  There is no other plausible explanation for the rallies that have lifted the price from 17 US$ to 1100 US$, then crashed it and recovered it to the present value.

If one day the Chinese lose interest in bitcoin and take their money out of the market, the price will probably fall back to double digits as it was before the Chinese stepped in.


Actually there is only a finite amount of money that could go in, and a practically infinite number of crypto-coins that can go in.  That is one of the many reasons why am skeptical of bitcoin's success.