Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30014. (Read 26709642 times)

What's CCMF?

5 consecutive green daily candles right now. Reminds me of Oct 5 to 11.

What's with this $820 wall? TEAR DOWN THE WALL! TEAR DOWN THE WALL!

Explanation

Woke up this morning seeing that we broke through the 800 mark, that is nice. Btc has been almost eerily stable lately, making me feel like there was going to be a big shift either way soon. I was actually waiting to see what i felt was the best re-entry point to add some more btc. I actually treat my btc wallets like and employer 401k. I bet on sports through my friend's sports book. Whenever i win, i add that, plus i match the winnings, and add it to bitcoin.

Its been going well. I have had 4 winning weeks in a row. The only problem is that my 4 winning weeks is just equal to the amount of my 1 losing week that i had 5 weeks ago. Funny how it always works out like that.

Wouldn't it be easier to just fake the volume and set up automatic arbitrages on other exchanges? You won't make as much money, and the risk would be problems with other exchanges. Mtgox could easily be doing that to pay off debts. haha

 

Which reminds me of an exchange faar faaar awaaaay.... 

Bitcoin may not be a Ponzi schema itself, but her is how you could run a Ponzi schema with bitcoin:

1, open an exchange.

2. Post yourself a bid at 10% over market price, say 1100$ instead of 1000$.

3. First client rushes in, sells 1 BTC. You credit his account with 1100$, warn him that withdrawal may take a couple weeks.

4. You sell that BTC at another exchange for 1000$.

5. Second client comes and sells 2 BTC. You credit him 2200$ and warn of delays.

6. You sell those two BTC for 2000$, now you have 3000$

7. You pay the first client 1100$,  still have 1900$ left.

8. Third client comes in, sells 4 BTC, ...

You guess the rest.  Like any Ponzi, it works while the clientele keeps expanding (but you may have to increase the spread, say 20%). Eventually you run pout of fresh clients and the thing collapses.  

Me too... I have used them to good effect to judge entry and exit points in the past with PM's , you know when you know you want to get into the market or out, but are trying to figure where the point is where you think this is a good a point as any... Fibs have been very useful for that also in trading certain currency crosses, but of course in the PM market it is a known that many traders and even bots do use Fib retracements , and their main use therefore is mainly I suspect for whales to set more effective bull and bear traps , it is difficult to study a market for such patterns when it is being not only manipulated but also gamed by people using the very tool you are looking to study the efficacy of ie Fibs

I have only started to look at the fib retracements with Bitcoin recently but I will be keeping an eye out going into the future... however I see them probably only of some use in describing retracements of moves, to identify possible channels levels of possible support and res.


In reality though as I have already said I am a fundamentals guy and the fundamentals guy sees strong upside on mid term horizon, as many of us do..

On a another note there is a 7- 7.5 ish month cycle inbetween ATH peaks if you go back , it is there a good four or five + cycles back.. (edit ok one of them is a peak after a dip and not a new ATH) so I would not be susprised if we see this years ATH's inbetween June - July , but maybe I am wrong I would not be surpised if it was Oct-Dec

It is as we all know very hard to put your finger on any actual price and match it with an actual accurate timescale especially with an emerging market/technology..  Fugazi, Fugayzi, Fugahzi, it's a wahzi, it's a woozie, fairy dust.  If there is going to be real skin in the game then I happily call a direction and a timescale though... Choo Choo... and not too far into the future - ha -

 

Come on already with that fekken regulation sh*t. The girls are waiting!

Let's...
CCMF!!!!!1

That paper claims that Bitcoin prices must have memory because the square of the log-price increments shows medium-term autocorrelation.

My interpretation is that the trade volume has a natural time scale of a couple of hours (traders stick around for a while once they "come in").

In turn, the trade volume modulates the standard deviation (rms magnitude) of the increments.

So, there is no memory in the price per se.  Rather, the real "market clock" (that counts BTCs traded, not time) turns at variable speed, and has some inertia.

That is, if twice as many transactions as usual happened in one hour, that has the same effect on price as two hours of trade at normal levels.

Those variations in trading volume per hour may have the effect of "mandelbrotizing" the price charts, I don't know.

However I do not think that fractal analysis can produce much better predicitions that the simple log-Brownian model, unless it can somehow predict the changes in  volume.

But there are other variables that should be considered first,because theh have a larg impact on volume - like, what are the sleep hours in China, when will banks open after New Years, etc.

I'm genuinely fascinated with fib patterns as indicators of emergent properties in systems. I doubt I'll ever find the time to do a decent objective study for apophenia vs statistically significant predictable patterns. Hats off to those of you who do   

: ) yeah I know all about it... I was kind of joking?   I say kind of because

a) Apophenia is very real - I see it everwhere I look everyday ; ) but yeah it is real of course
b) but there are actually really patterns everywhere
c) just not EVERYWHERE

Indeed you have... it is a useful thing.. as it is a  very human behaviour, built into our physiology and manifested into reality into behaviour via psychology…. humans are complicated pattern recognition
machines… we love a pattern, and we love to spot an anomaly in a pattern, this is one of our built in survival techniques, so as such we are constantly on one level seeking out patterns, identifying them and looking for future differences… a by product of this is of course dead ends…  regardless of this…
I have seen fib lines work over and over again in one market or another..  not always, nothing does though, if it did , there would no longer be a market. I do not claim that the golden ratio is alive and well and kicking around the markets… but I do claim that others do trade from these patterns and the retracement lines of big moves.. the graphs often show this .. but you can make any set of data show any results if you have already an outcome in mind… I take it all as just another indicator… I posted it because yesterday someone posted a prediction based on Brownian probability etc and I thought I would post a scenario… I believe it is going up, but prices in a market tend to bounce around in channels, I had a look at the graphs, and the recent price action, and the fib levels,  and these are the channels I see that could play out in the next breakout… and I put the downside support levels there for purposes of seeing where the price could bounce around in , on the next breakout up, if we see it occur in the next few weeks- month.

It is a scenario nothing more.. but I thought I would post it for fun, rather than come on the board after and say  "yeah I thought it would do that" but maybe I should have put a disclaimer something along the lines of "I am an idiot - so are you if you follow my "possible scenario" out with skin in the game" or something along those lines...

Anyway it was for prosperity as much as anythingn else... and it will be interesting to see how the price action does work out... and where any possible stickypoint are... it could just blow a top and fly straight up, or not , who knows...

I got in when BTC was under $100, only a few nothing huge.. but I have not sold, not once… Alts sure I buy and sell , but BTC I have only ever bought more here and there if I can afford a few more pennies now and then…

I think what I really shoudl have just posted was
CHOO CHOOOOOO MFERS! !!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia
http://www.ted.com/talks/michael_shermer_the_pattern_behind_self_deception.html

You're such a silly noob, the price never goes up in a straight line. Just watch, this train hasn't even left the station yet and is just warming up its engines. Latecomers can still hop onboard before it really starts taking off. You can be the guy watching the train leave without you.

gotta love that apophenia

Yup two different set of Fibs retracements tracing back over two time frames, ie the last two big moves... some of the retracement lines intersect, plus just drawing some lines and looking at the channels it seems to be bouncing around in... and looking at the chart...  
Do not get me wrong, I am not stating this is 100% , far from it, but I am saying it could be a useful indicator along with the others,  market depth=walls ,volume etc and whatever other lagging indicators one feels does it for them...MACD stoch etc... personally I have a few and I like the Fib retracement lines though because they do seem to fairly often describe (even predict)  shorter term moves and bounces inbetween channels... there is of course a case for targets set around the fibonacci retracements based soley on the self-fulfilling phenomenon ; )  

I am more of a fundamentals guy, but like a chart too..

Yeah Mandelbrot - what a guy...  there really are patterns everywhere.

Confirmed Good News!

Thank you to all the bears who have sabotaged the train in order to delay departure.

My fiat deposit still has not cleared