This "capitulation" has got absolutely no conviction.
We are nowhere near capitulation.
Nor is capitulation necessarily in the cards. We've seen a variety of these blow-offs in the past, and many lack a meaningful capitulation.
A meaningful capitulation requires that the participating funds should despair. But despair usually requires a degree of certainty or a wearisome, prolonged level of grinding fear that may be unavailable in this cycle. After all, the rise was put on with all the punditry railing against the bubble. The longer we spend at this level, the more absurd the bubble talk becomes. Speculators on the intraday frames will perhaps feel some despair, but those trading on daily, weekly, monthly scales have little reason to capitulate. Almost all of them are up 100, 200, 400%, 800%. Push the price down below 400 and you may see some serious capitulation blowing out. If that doesn't happen, I don't think there will be a dramatic bottom, just a long slow jam until the on-ramps get all knickered again and we do the gravity slingshot thing to mars.
