Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30299. (Read 26709246 times)

Yeah, didn't mean to be down on this place, and we are supposed to be on a speculation thread.

I think we all suffer from wanting to see affirmation of our desires, and confirmation of our predictions, even the best on here display their ego on occasion.

However, we all take a little from each call and get a feel for the mood through it, placing different weightings according to the respect we have for the poster concerned, in order to factor this in to our own view.

In this respect the thread is an indicator and I am sure it is watched.  Sometimes it can even be a contra-indicator (when everyone is most bullish, it is sometimes a bad sign!)

I think almost no-one here believes they can move this market anymore, though - because I doubt any of us really has that power.  

Explanation

At this point, I don't think the act of merchants accepting BTC through a 3rd party BTC processor will bring the price up even if it's Amazon. If they put it on their homepage they accept BTC or they accept BTC without a 3rd party processor, that will bring the price up! Even overstock.com website, it doesn't link to any BTC education site.

The majority of posts are still choo choo. Price just hasn't gone to the moon along with them.

Personally, I don't find the dynamic particularly adversarial. But I don't take into account the vast majority of posting here. There's a small handful of analysts here that I think provide useful insight on a regular basis. 95% of this forum is trolling etc, and the rest I use to confirm, or compel reassessment of, my position. I wouldn't do that because someone says the price will go up or down; I do it because analysis is compelling -- or because it isn't. Any analysis I post is in the same vein.

I'm of the position that a) very few will take my calls seriously enough to act on them, and b) this forum is too insignificant to matter. But to be fair, even Lucif got burnt and learned this lesson -- surely people attempt to manipulate this way. Still, I think posting positions * here has more to do with the psychological push to be "correct." It's funny -- there have certainly been times when I have posted analysis here and been more excited for it to be correct than I have for the profit to be reaped. Silly, really, but that's ego....

Put another way, I think you would have to be very unintelligent at this point to believe you could move the market by posting on this forum. A few years ago, it was more sensible, but you would have to be quite stupid at this point. Perhaps my mistake is giving too much credit to peoples' basic intelligence.

* drawing a distinction between trolling and analysis

During the December bear market (and more so during panics) half of the speculation forum turns to italics... meaning trolls, fudsters, sock puppets, and angry bears with nothing better to do. They mysteriously turn up at the most opportune times. Coincidence?

They are effective at instilling fear during crashes. Comments like THE CHINESE ARE SELLING ON STAMP can really get your heart going at the bottom of a long trend.

Explanation

http://www.forbes.com/sites/benkepes/2014/01/15/bitcoin-breaks-out-you-can-now-pay-the-irs-in-cryptocurrency/

The headline says BUY the rest of the article says....eh?

200million per coin??

this chart is telling me to HODL

https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

what is happening with this?? it was 29% 1 hour ago.. now 34%

what is up??

the boys at ghash start to piss me off :p

Quite right - we don't know, but with all the genuinely good news NOT fueling the moon flight, it does seem the market is reticent, so one can but act cautiously.....

It seems rational - TA doesn't offer much help if sentiment is wobbly and certainty (China, whatever) is noticeably absent.

We have media exposure that would have seemed amazing even months ago, yet we are forced to wait and watch a little, for now.

That's it.

Rocket on the moon is just refueling. It's a long way to mars.

It is definitely done by several in an attempt to manipulate price. It has become a lot more common since the last run up and the influx of new posters.

Meanwhile, French Congress met today with panel similar to US hearings and things were pretty much all positive on the Bitcoin front.

Good news is coming out every day, so I guess this market is actually over bought afterall. The market seems like it is just going to wait to see what happens in China or eventually there will be such good news that it won't have a choice but to go up.

In truth we really don't know if this market is extended or not, because we are creating a new context with which to view bitcoin every week.

Personally, I think the longer we hang out between 750-900, the more bullish this is. Eventually, and it might take some while, bitcoin will no longer seem expensive in this range.

I hate to sound nostalgic, but it is a little more adversarial and less of a communitarian thing on here.

Maybe it's because we are post all the choo choo times of Nov / Dec...

I have not felt like posting as much for fear of having to justify a quite reasonable position (although I am still always watching).

Disclosure - am part fiat (about 25%) a position I have roughly maintained since before Christmas, bar the odd trade on the dips - which I personally think is reasonable right now, until the month's end at least!

I mean more so that it's sort of a moot point. Obviously if I post a buy/sell target, that's my position. But there is this nagging assertion around here that this is done to manipulate price. That seems absurd to me, but I guess some people put a lot more weight on this forum than others.

No kidding!  That is one of the most bearish charts I've seen yet.  With all the confirmed bad news, plus this chart, plus all the great bearish TA you can find around here, it should just be obvious to everyone that if they have any bitcoins they need to SODL them ASAP.  If you don't have bitcoins, find a way to SHOTR at the highest margin levels.  We can all still make a lot of money from bitcoin on the way down.

Generally, on this specific subforum, it's a valid assumption.

Why always "talking book" when someone expresses an opinion...