Is this the bottom or we just stopping to let some ppl off before we continue down? The charts indicate still going down, am I reading that right?
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30470. (Read 26711840 times)
January 07, 2014, 09:16:39 AM
January 07, 2014, 09:15:42 AM
I strongly suspect that at least 5000 BTC/day of MtGox volume is fake (the ping-pong I mentioned earlier). Then there are spurts of higher volume when the price is changing fast, obviously due to speculation.
The non-speculative (commercial) trade seems to be less than 5000 BTC/day. How much less?
The non-speculative (commercial) trade seems to be less than 5000 BTC/day. How much less?
I hope you don't mind my asking, but I've seen you make a dozen posts about this. I'm interested to know, do you own any BTC or are you waiting to buy, or neither?
January 07, 2014, 09:15:26 AM
I don't do this very often, but this time I actually sold 10% of my stash at $890 on Stamp. Take this as a warning from a superstrong hand. 
Thanks. Sold all my coins
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/11/13/kuwait_2.jpg
January 07, 2014, 09:14:14 AM
I don't do this very often, but this time I actually sold 10% of my stash at $890 on Stamp. Take this as a warning from a superstrong hand.
Needed liquidity?
I think he might be saying he panicked?
January 07, 2014, 09:11:21 AM
I don't do this very often, but this time I actually sold 10% of my stash at $890 on Stamp. Take this as a warning from a superstrong hand.
Needed liquidity?
January 07, 2014, 09:10:23 AM
I don't do this very often, but this time I actually sold 10% of my stash at $890 on Stamp. Take this as a warning from a superstrong hand.
January 07, 2014, 09:06:14 AM
I strongly suspect that at least 5000 BTC/day of MtGox volume is fake (the ping-pong I mentioned earlier). Then there are spurts of higher volume when the price is changing fast, obviously due to speculation.
The non-speculative (commercial) trade seems to be less than 5000 BTC/day. How much less?
The non-speculative (commercial) trade seems to be less than 5000 BTC/day. How much less?
January 07, 2014, 09:05:57 AM
6h and 4h StochRSI looks bad, altho not sure how good is it for predicting the future 
i'm not sure either. they look bad because what just happened was bad. there was prior warning though.
There was also this:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/early-2014-397534
1. So far we have popped up as stated would happen.
2. And we have come back down to around the green line as stated would happen.
3. Now I believe we will ride just above the green line following its trend but likely pop up again in the days to come.
January 07, 2014, 09:04:00 AM
Arepo can I ask in all seriousness... do you have a technical term for this kind of pattern?
it is sinusoidal. not necessary a technical name from the trading world, but it can be modeled with the sine function. why do you ask? it is rather pretty isn't it?
Sorta. It's a modified sine. It follows the look of a capacitor's voltage charging and discharging about a mean. The direction of the exponential portion tells you where the mean is located, by current market consensus. The market seeks that consensus. But then there are external factors as well.
January 07, 2014, 09:03:10 AM
Anyone knows about that new china taobao crypto ban? Could it be the cause?
no.
guys... this is what happens when we go parabolic above a trendline after a bubble. the same thing happened in April-May.
i hope all of the newer traders who were confused as to why i was unsettled by this weekends rally, and the multiple warnings of "we'll pay for this later" understand now.
+1
haha you're obviously not a merchant trying to actually use bitcoin as a currency, or anything like that
like i said, sometimes i believe the crap about speculators being good for a market, but then again this bullshit happens with frightening regularity...
Arepo can I ask in all seriousness... do you have a technical term for this kind of pattern?
A classic 'grab your ankles' pattern...
January 07, 2014, 09:02:57 AM
6h and 4h StochRSI looks bad, altho not sure how good is it for predicting the future
No, it Looks good.Because we are oversold now and buying should beginnnot after all of that time spent in the overbought zone. we'll likely "double-dip". generally speaking, a crossover of the midline is also an important signal for oscillators.
January 07, 2014, 09:02:44 AM
i'm not sure either. they look bad because what just happened was bad.
Nothing bad happened sir.
January 07, 2014, 09:01:44 AM
do you have a technical term for this kind of pattern?
I would call it the bitch-slap pattern.
Whipsaw.
January 07, 2014, 09:01:25 AM
Arepo can I ask in all seriousness... do you have a technical term for this kind of pattern?
it is sinusoidal. not necessary a technical name from the trading world, but it can be modeled with the sine function. why do you ask? it is rather pretty isn't it?
January 07, 2014, 08:59:42 AM
Anyone knows about that new china taobao crypto ban? Could it be the cause?
no.
guys... this is what happens when we go parabolic above a trendline after a bubble. the same thing happened in April-May.
i hope all of the newer traders who were confused as to why i was unsettled by this weekends rally, and the multiple warnings of "we'll pay for this later" understand now.
+1
haha you're obviously not a merchant trying to actually use bitcoin as a currency, or anything like that
like i said, sometimes i believe the crap about speculators being good for a market, but then again this bullshit happens with frightening regularity...
I've been wondering about this. It's not the conventional wisdom, but (absent constantly-updating LED price stickers or some unsettling thing like that) is it not possible, if you are a merchant, or a user, trading for goods that are fairly normal (bread, eggs, milk, detergent, etc.) to just kinda price things at the trendline, and not give a shit about the instantaneous cost? Basically, price things in BTC, along a trend. So, for me, with my analysis, despite all this, let's say we plot with a trend using a weighting system that accounts for good and bad news, weekend movements, etc. for maybe a 9-day weighting period. So, maybe the present FMV of 1.0 BTC is just $900. So, price everything accordingly and don't care about the movement. Even in USD, gasoline fluctates about almost as much as BTC does. You just don't have people waiting to buy gas for the right rate, or rates flipping around on the signs several times per second. I feel like it is possible.
January 07, 2014, 08:59:17 AM
6h and 4h StochRSI looks bad, altho not sure how good is it for predicting the future
i'm not sure either. they look bad because what just happened was bad. there was prior warning though.
January 07, 2014, 08:57:18 AM
Are you guys watching the same charts as me? That 'recovery' was led by Huobi. Btc-e picked up on the Huobi buys v quickly, with stamp begrudgingly dragging it's heals responding a minute later, meanwhile Gox just looked stunned.
January 07, 2014, 08:56:31 AM
dat ltc spread
January 07, 2014, 08:56:21 AM
do you have a technical term for this kind of pattern?
I would call it the bitch-slap pattern.
That's perfect! Thanks!
January 07, 2014, 08:55:15 AM
and is likely to remain that way until the super-exponential growth phase has finished.
It will take end of this year to be finished. Or even 2015 too. Jump to: