Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30505. (Read 26713256 times)
January 06, 2014, 08:13:36 AM
Let's see if how it rebounds ...
January 06, 2014, 08:12:55 AM
Great time to buy back in, I've never got fiat at these moments.
January 06, 2014, 08:10:09 AM
Last cheap buy in chance for everyone.
Going above 1000 on stamp now
Going above 1000 on stamp now
Hmmm 920 and falling.
Cya below 900$
It may rebound at about 907$.
January 06, 2014, 08:08:54 AM
what the deuce stamp
I expect stamp & BTC-e to go down to 920 ~ 899 level before start going back-up.
seems accurate
Last cheap buy in chance for everyone.
Going above 1000 on stamp now
lol very unlikely
In all seriousness I expect a significant dip in advance of the 31st of Jan (around the 28th) as people anticipate a crackdown in China in advance of their deadline.
After the 31st that all depends on what actually happens in China and if the "work arounds" implemented by various Chinese exchanges are closed by the authorities. It's also worth noting that the 31st is a Friday so if nothing is heard straight away it could be an interesting weekend with lots of posts of memes/hold/hodl here
January 06, 2014, 08:07:07 AM
Last cheap buy in chance for everyone.
Going above 1000 on stamp now
Going above 1000 on stamp now
Hmmm 920 and falling.
Cya below 900$
January 06, 2014, 08:04:50 AM
Holy shit.... big dump on Gox.... 
January 06, 2014, 08:01:59 AM
January 06, 2014, 07:59:20 AM
what the deuce stamp
I expect stamp & BTC-e to go down to 920 ~ 899 level before start going back-up.
seems accurate
Last cheap buy in chance for everyone.
Going above 1000 on stamp now
January 06, 2014, 07:52:20 AM
11,000 BTC to 750$ ... 11,000 BTC to 2,000$ ... (Gox)
EDIT: 12,000 BTC to 10,000$ ... is that true or is bitcoinity borked?
EDIT: 12,000 BTC to 10,000$ ... is that true or is bitcoinity borked?
http://trading.i286.org shows ~15 000 bitcoins for sale at any price
January 06, 2014, 07:51:52 AM
what the deuce stamp
I expect stamp & BTC-e to go down to 920 ~ 899 level before start going back-up.
seems accurate
January 06, 2014, 07:49:54 AM
11,000 BTC to 750$ ... 11,000 BTC to 2,000$ ... (Gox)
EDIT: 12,000 BTC to 10,000$ ... is that true or is bitcoinity borked?
EDIT: 12,000 BTC to 10,000$ ... is that true or is bitcoinity borked?
January 06, 2014, 07:49:18 AM
I wonder how much longer this can go on. It's been like this for like 6 months. 40 million USD on the books and god knows how much on the sidelines, all not possible to get out. People must be getting impatient/worried right? Not my problem though, I'm euro...
This is an enduring mystery to me as well.
You want to pay more for your coins and you don't want to be able to get any cash out? Surely people have researched it enough to know not to bother. Perhaps not.
It's pretty simple really. Gox is primarily used by traders since it has a relatively good user-friendly platform. If you want to day-trade or hold short positions, it's easy to do on Gox. Then if you want to cash out, you withdraw your btc to your wallet, send it to Stamp or suchlike and then withdraw fiat. You wouldn't want to buy your first lot of btc from Gox (because of the c.10% inflated price), nor sell your final holding (because you can't withdraw fiat) but for everything in-between it's very useable.
January 06, 2014, 07:48:59 AM
Since I made that chart, i'll say use it with caution. If you make any trading decisions based on that chart you are on your own. It only contains data for part of the period, after the first large bubble in 2011. It also has to be expanded with a S-kind of ending at the top since it will obviously flatten out when saturation is reached. But it gives the best fit to the data for that time period -- under the assumption that a single function generated the data during the entire period.
Fixed
Not attacking you, by the way, I appreciate your input. Just that it's a pet peeve of mine: pointing out that despite all the other assumptions (remove outliers or not?, which period to use for input?, exponential function? double exponential?), the assumption that it is exactly one function we're looking for is perhaps the biggest (simplifying) assumption of them all.
Yes, I agree. It's the best "simple" function I have found that best represent the data in this period. I'm sure there is more to it than this. Maybe step functions and
I've seen them both. gbianchi models price as a function of total no. of btc addresses unless I'm mistaken. Not totally dumb I'd say, but in the end, I'd bet no. of addresses and price are not independent. And rpietila is using the most "traditional" way of a log linear model (line of best fit) unless I'm mistaken. I strongly doubt that approach is useful for active trading, it's shown itself to be off by more a factor of 10 (!!!) at times.
I understand the desire to find the *one* function that fits them all, but even trying to find a more complex function like an (under)damped oscillator is perhaps not the best way to go about it: I personally believe there is no way around the idea that, at different time periods, different functions govern btc price. The trick is of course to limit that number in a systematic way, and to avoid overfitting.
Yes, so how do we best limit the number in a systematic way?
January 06, 2014, 07:47:59 AM
CRASH!
January 06, 2014, 07:47:41 AM
I wonder how much longer this can go on. It's been like this for like 6 months. 40 million USD on the books and god knows how much on the sidelines, all not possible to get out. People must be getting impatient/worried right? Not my problem though, I'm euro...
This is an enduring mystery to me as well.
You want to pay more for your coins and you don't want to be able to get any cash out? Surely people have researched it enough to know not to bother. Perhaps not.
Gox hasn't exactly been forthcoming to new customers about their withdrawal situation. Gox is still the first thing you see when you google "buy bitcoins".
That said, I do hope they get their shit together. Would be a terrible blow to bitcoin if they were to shut down, holding customer funds in captivity and at the whim of government agencies.
January 06, 2014, 07:44:17 AM
well selling has become the theme of this eastern morning
January 06, 2014, 07:43:01 AM
I wonder how much longer this can go on. It's been like this for like 6 months. 40 million USD on the books and god knows how much on the sidelines, all not possible to get out. People must be getting impatient/worried right? Not my problem though, I'm euro...
This is an enduring mystery to me as well.
You want to pay more for your coins and you don't want to be able to get any cash out? Surely people have researched it enough to know not to bother. Perhaps not.
January 06, 2014, 07:33:06 AM
Since I made that chart, i'll say use it with caution. If you make any trading decisions based on that chart you are on your own. It only contains data for part of the period, after the first large bubble in 2011. It also has to be expanded with a S-kind of ending at the top since it will obviously flatten out when saturation is reached. But it gives the best fit to the data for that time period -- under the assumption that a single function generated the data during the entire period.
Fixed
Not attacking you, by the way, I appreciate your input. Just that it's a pet peeve of mine: pointing out that despite all the other assumptions (remove outliers or not?, which period to use for input?, exponential function? double exponential?), the assumption that it is exactly one function we're looking for is perhaps the biggest (simplifying) assumption of them all.
Yes, I agree. It's the best "simple" function I have found that best represent the data in this period. I'm sure there is more to it than this. Maybe step functions and
I've seen them both. gbianchi models price as a function of total no. of btc addresses unless I'm mistaken. Not totally dumb I'd say, but in the end, I'd bet no. of addresses and price are not independent. And rpietila is using the most "traditional" way of a log linear model (line of best fit) unless I'm mistaken. I strongly doubt that approach is useful for active trading, it's shown itself to be off by more a factor of 10 (!!!) at times.
I understand the desire to find the *one* function that fits them all, but even trying to find a more complex function like an (under)damped oscillator is perhaps not the best way to go about it: I personally believe there is no way around the idea that, at different time periods, different functions govern btc price. The trick is of course to limit that number in a systematic way, and to avoid overfitting.
January 06, 2014, 07:17:32 AM
Since I made that chart, i'll say use it with caution. If you make any trading decisions based on that chart you are on your own. It only contains data for part of the period, after the first large bubble in 2011. It also has to be expanded with a S-kind of ending at the top since it will obviously flatten out when saturation is reached. But it gives the best fit to the data for that time period -- under the assumption that a single function generated the data during the entire period.
Fixed
Not attacking you, by the way, I appreciate your input. Just that it's a pet peeve of mine: pointing out that despite all the other assumptions (remove outliers or not?, which period to use for input?, exponential function? double exponential?), the assumption that it is exactly one function we're looking for is perhaps the biggest (simplifying) assumption of them all.
Yes, I agree. It's the best "simple" function I have found that best represent the data in this period. I'm sure there is more to it than this. Maybe step functions and
January 06, 2014, 07:16:05 AM
what the deuce stamp
I expect stamp & BTC-e to go down to 920 ~ 899 level before start going back-up.
they going to run out of bear coins?
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