Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30770.

outofservice

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 11

Quote from: windjc on December 22, 2013, 04:12:37 AM

Quote from: outofservice on December 22, 2013, 04:11:36 AM

Quote from: windjc on December 22, 2013, 04:05:02 AM

Quote from: TERA on December 22, 2013, 03:59:47 AM

Such swing. Much mystery.

What'll happen next? Surely different this time.

If no new bad news comes out of China, what is going to drive the price down this time. One might argue we are no longer overbought.

I'm looking at these two blue boxes and they're the same pattern and we're on a downtrend. so would you continue to read it as it will continue to dip and follow trend/pattern?

TERA hopes so. Technicals says so. However, we could be on the verge of reversing trends back up. We will probably know by Christmas.

Outofservice hopes so also. Sold at 700 waiting to jump back in lower

TERA

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: MicroFi on December 22, 2013, 04:14:36 AM

Quote from: outofservice on December 22, 2013, 04:11:36 AM

Quote from: windjc on December 22, 2013, 04:05:02 AM

Quote from: TERA on December 22, 2013, 03:59:47 AM

Such swing. Much mystery.

What'll happen next? Surely different this time.

If no new bad news comes out of China, what is going to drive the price down this time. One might argue we are no longer overbought.

I'm looking at these two blue boxes and they're the same pattern and we're on a downtrend. so would you continue to read it as it will continue to dip and follow trend/pattern?

That way you could reason it would go down ad infinitum ...
I don't think we're going to see any lower lowers anymore. Give it another couple of days and you'll see we're going to be over 1000 again in the first half of January.

No if it was getting ready to break out of the downtrend then it wouldn't make that pattern - a pattern of weakness - it would some different pattern. So next time it goes down and comes back up it'll make a different pattern and it wont go down ad infinitum.

MicroFi

full member

Activity: 124

Merit: 100

Quote from: outofservice on December 22, 2013, 04:11:36 AM

Quote from: windjc on December 22, 2013, 04:05:02 AM

Quote from: TERA on December 22, 2013, 03:59:47 AM

Such swing. Much mystery.

What'll happen next? Surely different this time.

If no new bad news comes out of China, what is going to drive the price down this time. One might argue we are no longer overbought.

I'm looking at these two blue boxes and they're the same pattern and we're on a downtrend. so would you continue to read it as it will continue to dip and follow trend/pattern?

That way you could reason it would go down ad infinitum ...
I don't think we're going to see any lower lowers anymore. Give it another couple of days and you'll see we're going to be over 1000 again in the first half of January.

Searing

copper member

Activity: 2898

Merit: 1465

Clueless!

Quote from: jojo69 on December 22, 2013, 04:09:24 AM

sit tight kids

chances are you will get your strike price

nothing guarantees a loss...like an actual, actualized loss

panic moves are the grist of the whales

yeah....should figure out how paper wallets work.....nice and get them laminated for protection.....get a safe deposit box...so pretty...(my precious)
then if it all goes poof I can stack them next to my 'stamp collection: Stamps of the Earth of my youth.....be right up there with the
now defunct 'east Germany stamps" and USSR stamps...there you go ...there's a plan...

on the other hand...if this stuff works ..the above greedy bas*rd plan will be considered genius.....either way the BTC is mine I tell you mine!

(wanders off scratching crotch mumbling my precious to myself)

Searing

dani

hero member

Activity: 525

Merit: 500

..yeah

I can't fine the person to quote, but he said whenever everyone bets on one trend the opposite will happen instead. He is clearly right, so this one feels good:

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: outofservice on December 22, 2013, 04:11:36 AM

Quote from: windjc on December 22, 2013, 04:05:02 AM

Quote from: TERA on December 22, 2013, 03:59:47 AM

Such swing. Much mystery.

What'll happen next? Surely different this time.

If no new bad news comes out of China, what is going to drive the price down this time. One might argue we are no longer overbought.

I'm looking at these two blue boxes and they're the same pattern and we're on a downtrend. so would you continue to read it as it will continue to dip and follow trend/pattern?

TERA hopes so. Technicals says so. However, we could be on the verge of reversing trends back up. We will probably know by Christmas.

samsam

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

Quote from: outofservice on December 22, 2013, 04:08:10 AM

Quote from: samsam on December 22, 2013, 04:04:15 AM

Quote from: outofservice on December 22, 2013, 04:01:24 AM

Do I have this right?..

Bull Trap: price starts to rise quickly causing ppl to panic buy then shortly after the price dips much lower. They get trapped with the higher price btc instead of buying it on the dip

Yep.

There is also a bear trap: people sell a lot of btc quickly and then begin buying at the low en masse.

Thanks. Learning as I go.
Just to verify the bear trap: they panic sell thinking it's going to go down and then it rises?

so basically just opposites

Yes. They are are mirror strategies.

outofservice

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 11

Quote from: windjc on December 22, 2013, 04:05:02 AM

Quote from: TERA on December 22, 2013, 03:59:47 AM

Such swing. Much mystery.

What'll happen next? Surely different this time.

If no new bad news comes out of China, what is going to drive the price down this time. One might argue we are no longer overbought.

I'm looking at these two blue boxes and they're the same pattern and we're on a downtrend. so would you continue to read it as it will continue to dip and follow trend/pattern?

jojo69

legendary

Activity: 3388

Merit: 4775

diamond-handed zealot

sit tight kids

chances are you will get your strike price

nothing guarantees a loss...like an actual, actualized loss

panic moves are the grist of the whales

Searing

copper member

Activity: 2898

Merit: 1465

Clueless!

Quote from: windjc on December 22, 2013, 04:03:05 AM

So are we getting ready to break the downtrend? Or is this overoptimism leading into more downside?

It feels like the market is at a crossroads now.

Reasons that it continues down are:
A. More bad news from China - like banning CYN withdrawals after a certain prescribed date.
B. Dumping on China once people there realize their are no more options
C. Arbitraging or dumping on other exchanges causing leveraged positions to sell as well
D. Bad news outside of China

Reasons that it continues up:
A. No more bad news out of China. Worst is behind us. Chinese that are holding are going to continue to hold.
B. New fiat to exchanges this week as prices are lower.
C. Bid sums rising
D. More good news like Overstock.com, etc.
E. Still in uptrend, overall mood is positive.

It seems about a 50/50% call to me at this point.

yeah 50/50 the motley fool site calls us all nuts if that helps tip it one way or another any....(avast!..... my fellow lemmings the cliff is that way -====>)

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: TERA on December 22, 2013, 04:07:19 AM

The local spike closed before the news came out.

True but we were forming a pennant. Could it have broken up without the news?

outofservice

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 11

Quote from: samsam on December 22, 2013, 04:04:15 AM

Quote from: outofservice on December 22, 2013, 04:01:24 AM

Do I have this right?..

Bull Trap: price starts to rise quickly causing ppl to panic buy then shortly after the price dips much lower. They get trapped with the higher price btc instead of buying it on the dip

Yep.

There is also a bear trap: people sell a lot of btc quickly and then begin buying at the low en masse.

Thanks. Learning as I go.
Just to verify the bear trap: they panic sell thinking it's going to go down and then it rises?

so basically just opposites

TERA

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

The local spike closed before the news came out.

And this rally is still being led by btcchina. That should tell you enough.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: TERA on December 22, 2013, 03:59:47 AM

Such swing. Much mystery.

What'll happen next? Surely different this time.

If no new bad news comes out of China, what is going to drive the price down this time. One might argue we are no longer overbought.

samsam

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

Quote from: outofservice on December 22, 2013, 04:01:24 AM

Do I have this right?..

Bull Trap: price starts to rise quickly causing ppl to panic buy then shortly after the price dips much lower. They get trapped with the higher price btc instead of buying it on the dip

Yep.

There is also a bear trap: people sell a lot of btc quickly and then begin buying at the low en masse.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

So are we getting ready to break the downtrend? Or is this overoptimism leading into more downside?

It feels like the market is at a crossroads now.

Reasons that it continues down are:
A. More bad news from China - like banning CYN withdrawals after a certain prescribed date.
B. Dumping on China once people there realize their are no more options
C. Arbitraging or dumping on other exchanges causing leveraged positions to sell as well
D. Bad news outside of China

Reasons that it continues up:
A. No more bad news out of China. Worst is behind us. Chinese that are holding are going to continue to hold.
B. New fiat to exchanges this week as prices are lower.
C. Bid sums rising
D. More good news like Overstock.com, etc.
E. Still in uptrend, overall mood is positive.

It seems about a 50/50% call to me at this point.

rezurect

sr. member

Activity: 686

Merit: 250

Im a bear: and i'm trapped...

jojo69

legendary

Activity: 3388

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diamond-handed zealot

yawn

ChartBuddy

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 1823

1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

outofservice

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 11

Do I have this right?..

Bull Trap: price starts to rise quickly causing ppl to panic buy then shortly after the price dips much lower. They get trapped with the higher price btc instead of buying it on the dip

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