I use mtgox because I don't trust any other entity with much of my funds. We've seen many exchanges come and go (bitcoin24,bitcoin7,tradehill,bitparking etc) but mtgox has been here all the time.
I see it the same. MtGox sucks, but at least they probably won't go away. Here is a relevant paper trying to quantify those risks:
http://lyle.smu.edu/~tylerm/fc13.pdfThis is seriously great stuff.
You got any other papers on quantitative approaches to Bitcoin risk, Blitz?
We are in a full bear market now and wishful thinking won't change a thing. Expect the price to go down for a long while (except the bounces here and there).
The best you can hope for is a sideways to downward movement lasting 2-6 weeks, but never going below $600. Thats best case scenario for you.
Money is flowing into the exchanges and massive amounts are accumulating on the sidelines. When the market starts to go up again (after its found the new bottom its searching for now) that money is going to be forced back into the market and ATHs will be days away at that point.
I'm not eager to buy back, as it will take a really long time (several weeks to several months) to find a low. And yes I think it is going below $600. Anyway we will find out soon enough.
It took years to recover from 2011. It took months to recover from April 2013. This rally will be even easier to recover from. Barring some bad news, it won't take several months before we start going up again. We might, MIGHT, dip below $600 but I really doubt it. I thought for sure we would go back to $50. So much so that I ignored the obvious fact that the bottom was in at $66. People are staring at $600 now. Everyone knows the significance of that #. Barring bad news, I don't think we go below it. If we do then $500 will be the absolute bottom. But we will be headed north again, most bearish scenario, by February.
Agreed. The cycle is accelerating, all the signs are there. We're hitting the mainstream. Train is picking up steam, if you like.
Risto and the bears are myopically pointing to the meaningless trendline... look at the time lag between the April and November rallies compared to the behavior before, and tell me this thing isn't accelerating.
I'd be unsurprised to see the next rally inside of 3 months.
