Breaking out of that triangle in a big way. Anyone want to place bets on recovery or bull trap?
You mean an actual bet? Yeah, sure. I feel we will go visit the exponential trendline.
I am game. 10 BTC that we don't touch your exponential trendline in December?
The one that projects $428, not one that incorporates data up to Dec. 9.
Ah, never saw that one. From the high point of the dead cat bounce, to the day that exponential trend is breached, last time it was 45 days. If we were to bet on similar terms, the bet would stand as follows:
- On or before 25. January 2014, the price is less than 573.
There is no much reason to bet 1:1 whether price goes to 428 in December. I am getting better odds by just selling at >2*428
That's more than fair, there's a reason I tried to jump on that bet.
More respect for not taking a -EV gamble.
I'd rather have access to my coins than bet on 573 though, especially since that doesn't prove anything about the exponential trend.
Incorrect. Phew.
Understatement of the century. If you have read any of my threads, you know very well that I know a lot about many things, and actively use this knowledge to my advantage.
What comes to the predictive value, both of the previous big bubbles behaved nicely according to this model, with predictive value.
We need to have jumped to something completely different, in order for this model
not to continue holding true. The probability of this happening is well under 50%, even with Bitcoin
I would argue we
have jumped to something different. $70M in institutional money, pervasive and often positive mainstream media coverage... the rate that people are discovering Bitcoin is not growing at the same rate it has been. I've even started to see news articles that didn't start by explaining what Bitcoin is.
Institutional money is probably the most important thing in the short term. Even if the base of Bitcoin users grew at a fixed percentage rate, if the users coming in start to be financial institutions, that will have an outsize effect.
Up 'till now it's been mostly the spare money from nerds and ideologues. (I say this lovingly, being one.)
Bitcoin price and adoption are different, and I have an article about this in store.
That's true, certainly, but what separates it from something like the dot-com bubble? That exceeded all of the expectations of exponential growth, and it made some people very rich on the way up before imploding. No trend could have predicted it before it happened, and any trends projected at the peak would have been horrendously wrong.
