Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31149. (Read 26608628 times)
December 11, 2013, 04:56:56 AM
China moving down...
December 11, 2013, 04:54:50 AM
Bitcoin network or bitcoin value? Seems you are interested in bitcoin value.
The bitcoin value is one aspect of the system; which includes also exchanges, regulations, distribution, usage petterns, etc.
It will be volatile by definition as long as adoption increases. Rise is volatility.
Volatility will be reduced as the usage turns to real world trade.
Volatility will be reduced as the usage turns to real world trade.
Predictable changes, like a steady inflation or deflation, or seasonal variations. People can adapt to them. Volatility is unpredictable changes in value, and that is one thing that bothers economists: they cannot see how a commodity whose value can change 10% up or down in a day, unpredictably, could be used as a payment method (except for illegal trade where bitcoin is the only option, so profit margins can be high enough to cover such swings). For them, volatility must be reduced before it can be used for real trade.
Price will rise, basically with adoption. My guess 2-5% per year.
That is another stumbling block for economists. Infation encourages people to spend or invest their currency as soon as possible, thus keeping the economy in motion. Deflation has the opposite effect, it encourages people to hoard the currency. If bitcoins increase in value, they will be hoarded, and therfore will be less used in trade, and therefore their usefulness will be limited, and therefore their value will collapse. How will this paradox get resolved?
December 11, 2013, 04:47:17 AM
Latest thoughts, grain of salt advised:
Not dismissing these charts, but:
A. A lot of these charts just confirm each other.
B. We have not yet broken original trendline.
C. Why does it have to be $400 or $2000? Is it not possible we could range trade between $800-$1100 for a few weeks, months, etc.?
a. I wouldn't say that. For instance, MFI is looking at price and volume, ATR is measuring volatility. MACD is looking at the [broken] trend. Aroon Up and Down bring another element of time into the equation, and help to confirm trend on MACD.
b. Depends how you like to draw it. What is the "original" trend line?
c. This is bitcoin. I don't see it range trading for even a few weeks given recent price movements. We just took it like 13x from the bottom of the SR crash in what, like 2.5 months. (Excuse my fuzzy math)
Also, understand that I'm just "drawing on charts"... my bearish intuition comes first and foremost.
December 11, 2013, 04:40:40 AM
Look like the correction is coming guys.... Well we're all about long term right? Its healthy to be this way. I personally hate volatility so i dont like the world media keeps talking about "bubble"
We should go up slow and steady not 15% in a day.
There is volatility because the price is almost exclusively speculation. That's a feature, not a bug. The speculation feeds capital indirectly into Bitcoin infrastructure.We should go up slow and steady not 15% in a day.
You are not allowed to say that on this forum, people are going to talk about booming bitcoin economy and quote bitpay figures (caused by ASIC's)
December 11, 2013, 04:31:42 AM
[...]
I have asked in the Economics board what would be the expected state of the "bitcoin network" 15 years from now. No one knows what will be the value of a bitcoin, of course. But people cannot even answer (with justification) the more basic question of whether the value will be stable, will grow of fall gradually with time, or will be as chaotic and unpredictable as it is now.
I have asked in the Economics board what would be the expected state of the "bitcoin network" 15 years from now. No one knows what will be the value of a bitcoin, of course. But people cannot even answer (with justification) the more basic question of whether the value will be stable, will grow of fall gradually with time, or will be as chaotic and unpredictable as it is now.
Bitcoin network or bitcoin value? Seems you are interested in bitcoin value.
Nobody knows of course, but we can speculate.
It will be volatile by definition as long as adoption increases. Rise is volatility.
Volatility will be reduced as the usage turns to real world trade. When you sell or buy consumables, you do not care so much about hourly swings, that adds some stickyness to all prices (all prices being the inverse of the value of bitcoin). Think that we now have a rocky river bed, we will go to a swampy river bed.
Price will rise, basically with adoption. Is the system useful? In that case high adoption. Think for yourself.
End game: Stable value, but not completely. There will be bitcoin scares just as there have been gold scares throughout history. World-wide sentiment change regarding necessity of saving will move the value of coins. Value may rise with population growth, productivity rise and lost coins. My guess 2-5% per year.
December 11, 2013, 04:17:34 AM
Latest thoughts, grain of salt advised:
Not dismissing these charts, but:
A. A lot of these charts just confirm each other.
B. We have not yet broken original trendline.
C. Why does it have to be $400 or $2000? Is it not possible we could range trade between $800-$1100 for a few weeks, months, etc.?
D. Have you seen the news outlets recently? http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/10/business/will-bitcoin-replace-paypal/
December 11, 2013, 04:16:53 AM
Latest thoughts, grain of salt advised:
Not dismissing these charts, but:
A. A lot of these charts just confirm each other.
B. We have not yet broken original trendline.
C. Why does it have to be $400 or $2000? Is it not possible we could range trade between $800-$1100 for a few weeks, months, etc.?
December 11, 2013, 04:08:19 AM
Look like the correction is coming guys.... Well we're all about long term right? Its healthy to be this way. I personally hate volatility so i dont like the world media keeps talking about "bubble"
We should go up slow and steady not 15% in a day.
There is volatility because the price is almost exclusively speculation. That's a feature, not a bug. The speculation feeds capital indirectly into Bitcoin infrastructure.We should go up slow and steady not 15% in a day.
No its not a feature or a bug.
We all all know as btc grows, volatility will go down.
December 11, 2013, 04:07:07 AM
After you've read 100 articles written by "journalists" or even "economists" who have refused to do even a few minutes worth of research, you get burned out.
Granted that many journalists/economists do not understand the computing aspects, but on the other hand many computer people do not seem to understand economics. I have asked in the Economics board what would be the expected state of the "bitcoin network" 15 years from now. No one knows what will be the value of a bitcoin, of course. But people cannot even answer (with justification) the more basic question of whether the value will be stable, will grow of fall gradually with time, or will be as chaotic and unpredictable as it is now.
December 11, 2013, 04:02:06 AM
December 11, 2013, 04:00:39 AM
Look like the correction is coming guys.... Well we're all about long term right? Its healthy to be this way. I personally hate volatility so i dont like the world media keeps talking about "bubble"
We should go up slow and steady not 15% in a day.
There is volatility because the price is almost exclusively speculation. That's a feature, not a bug. The speculation feeds capital indirectly into Bitcoin infrastructure. We should go up slow and steady not 15% in a day.
December 11, 2013, 03:57:46 AM
Look like the correction is coming guys.... Well we're all about long term right? Its healthy to be this way. I personally hate volatility so i dont like the world media keeps talking about "bubble"
We should go up slow and steady not 15% in a day.
We should go up slow and steady not 15% in a day.
December 11, 2013, 03:52:51 AM
Latest thoughts, grain of salt advised:
December 11, 2013, 03:42:58 AM
What has happened during the night? Could someone, please, give a short wrap-up, please?
It's the first night I held all BTC overnight, and of course, it goes down!
Oh, and good morning from Europe.
It's the first night I held all BTC overnight, and of course, it goes down!
Oh, and good morning from Europe.
There was never too much support, and the other exchanges didn't quite participate. If gox can get another rally in tonight then nice, otherwise get ready for another long weekend.
December 11, 2013, 03:42:36 AM
Did Keiser dump his coins?
Max Keiser @maxkeiser 5m
JPM will attempt to use patent trolling (the way MPAA uses copyright trolling) to terrorize BTC users. Is BTC community up for this fight?
Max Keiser @maxkeiser 9m
Based on JPM's patent trolling initiative combined with TPP global IP capability we are lowering our BTC target price from $1,700 to $1,400
Max Keiser @maxkeiser 5m
JPM will attempt to use patent trolling (the way MPAA uses copyright trolling) to terrorize BTC users. Is BTC community up for this fight?
Max Keiser @maxkeiser 9m
Based on JPM's patent trolling initiative combined with TPP global IP capability we are lowering our BTC target price from $1,700 to $1,400
Hmm. Who would they file suit against? Cryptocoin developers themselves?
well, i wouldn't put fear mongering past max. maybe he's genuine though, and he's just using the anger of the general public against the big banks.
December 11, 2013, 03:40:52 AM
Did Keiser dump his coins?
Max Keiser @maxkeiser 5m
JPM will attempt to use patent trolling (the way MPAA uses copyright trolling) to terrorize BTC users. Is BTC community up for this fight?
Max Keiser @maxkeiser 9m
Based on JPM's patent trolling initiative combined with TPP global IP capability we are lowering our BTC target price from $1,700 to $1,400
Max Keiser @maxkeiser 5m
JPM will attempt to use patent trolling (the way MPAA uses copyright trolling) to terrorize BTC users. Is BTC community up for this fight?
Max Keiser @maxkeiser 9m
Based on JPM's patent trolling initiative combined with TPP global IP capability we are lowering our BTC target price from $1,700 to $1,400
Hmm. Who would they file suit against? Cryptocoin developers themselves?
December 11, 2013, 03:32:29 AM
I'm getting more and more concerned that no-one here seems to want to explore or even counter the 'negative' arguments around bitcoin or crypto...I don't mind reading erudite or informed denunciations of such arguments but everyone seems awful keen to dismiss any naysayers as idiots/fools without actually making a cogent defence.
Did you have a specific concern you want addressed? Most of us here can see right away that there is not one piece of intelligent thought put into an article like that, so dismiss it. If there is something you have a question about, ask! We are then more than happy to share wisdom
I'm having a similar but more specific exchange with Marcus_of_Augustus o this thread
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365730.new#new
My concerns are that forum members tend to dismiss negative arguments rather than take the time to counter them. I've spent a bit of time in real world convincing friends that BTC has a future but I imagine if they came here and saw the responses from members they wouldn't be that convinced.
Every negative article tends to generate a series of ad hom attacks: now, if you were a newcomer/visitor and you saw a respected economist/author (whatever) put their argument and the counter was "he's an idiot' from an anonymous forum member, who would you tend to believe?
There are a lot of intelligent people here but BTC's future tends to be more of an article of faith these days than solid, developing postulations.
Pretty much at this stage I think the general consensus is that those arguments have been countered to death and there's no point repeating over and over.
Though I am all for questions that may have been answered before if they are difficult to put into words and hard to find in searches or they want something that's time critical or is something that may have changed over time. It's always good to re-discuss things.
December 11, 2013, 03:32:05 AM
Did Keiser dump his coins?
Max Keiser @maxkeiser 5m
JPM will attempt to use patent trolling (the way MPAA uses copyright trolling) to terrorize BTC users. Is BTC community up for this fight?
Max Keiser @maxkeiser 9m
Based on JPM's patent trolling initiative combined with TPP global IP capability we are lowering our BTC target price from $1,700 to $1,400
Max Keiser @maxkeiser 5m
JPM will attempt to use patent trolling (the way MPAA uses copyright trolling) to terrorize BTC users. Is BTC community up for this fight?
Max Keiser @maxkeiser 9m
Based on JPM's patent trolling initiative combined with TPP global IP capability we are lowering our BTC target price from $1,700 to $1,400
December 11, 2013, 03:02:41 AM
CFO of a University in cyprus (actually a conglomerate with 8,500 students) endorses Bitcoin (they accept it for payment and have a sort of "cheaper in bitcoin" program for students from "poor countries") on Max' show. They made a proposal to the gov't of cyprus to become a Bitcoin hub and even to implement trading of Bitcoin on the cypriot stock exchange.
The work of the NEO & BEE dudes seems to bear some fruits.
I think this is quite big. Now governments of our beloved nationstates seem to be pushed by some their constituents start to compete on favorability of regulation towards Bitcoin. (see also the request by 40-some swiss parlamentarians to regulate Bitcoin as a foreign currency)
Look where Bitcoin is today and compare to when you first heard about it... be amazed!
December 11, 2013, 03:02:05 AM
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