Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31148. (Read 26608628 times)
December 11, 2013, 05:21:04 AM
The same pattern seems to happen every week for the past few weeks recently. Tuesday night/morning there is always a significant push in price, then later Wednesday night/morning there is a drop causing panic sells. After that a bunch of buys occur causing the price to spike up again. Thursday-Friday there is a slow decline in price. Someone is making some serious $$.
December 11, 2013, 05:17:45 AM
I felt so bearish earlier. Now this is happening it just feels like another bear trap.
December 11, 2013, 05:17:41 AM
That is another stumbling block for economists. Infation encourages people to spend or invest their currency as soon as possible, thus keeping the economy in motion. Deflation has the opposite effect, it encourages people to hoard the currency. If bitcoins increase in value, they will be hoarded, and therfore will be less used in trade, and therefore their usefulness will be limited, and therefore their value will collapse. How will this paradox get resolved?
Okay, you say nobody want's to buy due to deflation because price will be cheaper tomorrow. I say with the same logic nobody should want to sell due to inflation because price will be higher tomorrow. Yet people are selling things all the time. People are also buying massive amounts of phones and computers, even though they will be better tomorrow. In real life, very few people can afford to hoard and wait. We have needs as humans that can't be put on hold forever.
Best anti deflation scare argument ever.
December 11, 2013, 05:15:44 AM
what was that? Sharp knife on all three major exchanges at the same time?
China definitely led this one.
December 11, 2013, 05:15:38 AM
That is another stumbling block for economists. Infation encourages people to spend or invest their currency as soon as possible, thus keeping the economy in motion. Deflation has the opposite effect, it encourages people to hoard the currency. If bitcoins increase in value, they will be hoarded, and therfore will be less used in trade, and therefore their usefulness will be limited, and therefore their value will collapse. How will this paradox get resolved?
Okay, you say nobody want's to buy due to deflation because price will be cheaper tomorrow. I say with the same logic nobody should want to sell due to inflation because price will be higher tomorrow. Yet people are selling things all the time. People are also buying massive amounts of phones and computers, even though they will be better tomorrow. In real life, very few people can afford to hoard and wait. We have needs as humans that can't be put on hold forever.
December 11, 2013, 05:15:32 AM
what was that? Sharp knife on all three major exchanges at the same time?
¯\(°_o)/¯
December 11, 2013, 05:14:21 AM
what was that? Sharp knife on all three major exchanges at the same time?
mtgox was last
December 11, 2013, 05:14:09 AM
Predictable changes, like a steady inflation or deflation, or seasonal variations. People can adapt to them. Volatility is unpredictable changes in value
[...]
I suppose you could define some measure of volatility that is the degree to which the value differ from the theoretical underlaying exponential adoption curve. This would be stretching the reality.[...]
Price will rise, basically with adoption. My guess 2-5% per year.
Hold it. You fucked up my message here
Price will rise, basically with adoption.
This is during the implementation phase.
My guess 2-5% per year.
This is the end game, after adoption is completed to the level where number of new adoptors equals number of users leaving bitcoin.
December 11, 2013, 05:13:54 AM
what was that? Sharp knife on all three major exchanges at the same time?
December 11, 2013, 05:11:07 AM
Holy moly, dumb luck. I cashed out a bunch of BTC on stamp for profit raking right before this happened.
December 11, 2013, 05:10:55 AM
That is another stumbling block for economists. Infation encourages people to spend or invest their currency as soon as possible, thus keeping the economy in motion. Deflation has the opposite effect, it encourages people to hoard the currency. If bitcoins increase in value, they will be hoarded, and therfore will be less used in trade, and therefore their usefulness will be limited, and therefore their value will collapse. How will this paradox get resolved?
This is of course a perfectly valid argument (and a common one), but what about:1. Even if people hoard in order to further their wealth, they will still have to eventually buy something with their money, or the furthering of their wealth was all in vain (diving in a McDucky sea of physical bitcoin aside). So money will still be spent, except it can be spent when people want to spend it, with no outside pressure.
2. If the value should start to collapse due to low usefulness due to hoarding, then the hoarders would get an incentive to stop hoarding, which would make it more useful again (giving the hoarders a new reason to hoard, and thus a new reason not to hoard, etc.). This will bring a little volatility (much less than today's), but I certainly see a case for an equilibrium.
Disclaimer: I am not an economist. I'm making guesses here (if that separates me from the economists).
December 11, 2013, 05:10:00 AM
small repairs?
December 11, 2013, 05:09:56 AM
Rarely a boring day in the bitcoin sphere 
December 11, 2013, 05:09:33 AM
That is another stumbling block for economists. Conventional economic wisdom states that... Infation encourages people to spend or invest their currency as soon as possible, thus keeping the economy in motion. Deflation has the opposite effect, it encourages people to hoard the currency. If bitcoins increase in value, they will be hoarded, and therfore will be less used in trade, and therefore their usefulness will be limited, and therefore their value will collapse. How will this paradox get resolved?
This is one of the beauties of the Bitcoin experiment. With time we will get to know whether a deflationary currency is good for or bad for 'an economy', rather its participants. Start with the assumption that 'deflation is bad' and it doesn't matter how you predict the future of bitcoin you have to conclude it will not end well. Many here believe just as strongly that a deflationary currency is fantastic. But after millenia of theorising and arguing we don't have to any more. We can just wait and see
(and participate in the experiment or decline to, as we wish). December 11, 2013, 05:05:30 AM
ATH today?
'Almost To Hell'
'Almost To Hell'
December 11, 2013, 05:05:06 AM
Ok, we are tumbling down to 800's again, maybe lower?
December 11, 2013, 05:05:00 AM
erm, anyone watching?
December 11, 2013, 05:02:36 AM
December 11, 2013, 04:59:15 AM
Latest thoughts, grain of salt advised:
Not dismissing these charts, but:
A. A lot of these charts just confirm each other.
B. We have not yet broken original trendline.
C. Why does it have to be $400 or $2000? Is it not possible we could range trade between $800-$1100 for a few weeks, months, etc.?
D. Have you seen the news outlets recently? http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/10/business/will-bitcoin-replace-paypal/
I figure, I've got enough in storage if I turn out to be epically wrong -- the alt coin boom was very kind to me and there was so much money on the table. I could still panic buy at a profit now if I want to. But I just don't believe this rally.
December 11, 2013, 04:58:57 AM
Bitstamp is dropping fast. BTC-China is dropping fast. MtGox is stuck as usual.
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