Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31237. (Read 26731442 times)

legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1136
The only thing I don't like with being a bear is that posting in the forum is not fun anymore.

Don't put so much value in what other people have to say. I for one love it when I say something and no-one agrees, while at the same time I'm very certain of my opinion. I'm a contrarian at heart though Smiley

Contrarians are often lonely, but always win the biggest.

You're not lonely if you don't mind people thinking you're wrong. Also, when you're right often, people close to you start to believe in you, even if they think your opinion sounds insane Tongue
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
The only thing I don't like with being a bear is that posting in the forum is not fun anymore.

Don't put so much value in what other people have to say. I for one love it when I say something and no-one agrees, while at the same time I'm very certain of my opinion. I'm a contrarian at heart though Smiley

Contrarians are often lonely, but always win the biggest.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1136
The only thing I don't like with being a bear is that posting in the forum is not fun anymore.

Don't put so much value in what other people have to say. I for one love it when I say something and no-one agrees, while at the same time I'm very certain of my opinion. I'm a contrarian at heart though Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.

If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.

You don't know any folks that know any system dynamics, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.

I can only *READ* those... remember this is a chaotic system.

This is a system driven by mass adoption of an invention, which has been modeled before and can be modeled here.

I don't want to play it the smartguy here; but do you really think this simplified model can cover bitcoin dynamics?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamics

I SERIOUSLY don't.

I think it'd be so immensely superior to an extrapolated trendline as to be unworthy of discussion.

So true; others here would have been bored to death Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
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sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫

If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.

You don't know any folks that know any system dynamics, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.

I can only *READ* those... remember this is a chaotic system.

This is a system driven by mass adoption of an invention, which has been modeled before and can be modeled here.

I don't want to play it the smartguy here; but do you really think this simplified model can cover bitcoin dynamics?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamics

I SERIOUSLY don't.

I think it'd be so immensely superior to an extrapolated trendline as to be unworthy of discussion.

I repeat: this is not a tool for daytrading. This would be a tool to help indicate, in general, when bitcoins are overbought and oversold, so you can better identify the tops of bubbles and the bottoms of the following crash; and when there's significant possibility of another bubble in the near future, and when we're headed for an extended bear market.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
The significance of all this is that if we trade in a range for a few weeks it is megabullish. And right now it looks like we are going to (at worst) trade at a high range 850-1050 than a lower range 650-850.

Simply amazing. I expected more out of the bears honestly.



So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

Sounds like a plan.
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.

If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.

You don't know any folks that know any system dynamics, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.

I can only *READ* those... remember this is a chaotic system.

This is a system driven by mass adoption of an invention, which has been modeled before and can be modeled here.

I don't want to play it the smartguy here; but do you really think this simplified model can cover bitcoin dynamics?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamics

I SERIOUSLY don't.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
At $600 the 'trends' were still peaking (as much as I hate to depend on trends), the media was still pumping the bitcoin propaganda and people's interests were being piqued.

Now the trends are down, the media has been saturated (something thats hard for bitcoiners to accept, what people actually would just ignore our bitcoin arcitles???) and we are yesterday's news.

As far as not knowing how much 'pressure' is left. It's pretty obvious, we've been flapping off this ~1k resistance like a wet fish for for a while now, the only pressure that's left is in bull's heads.

My bearish call was about 7 hours after China popped in 19th November, public the following day. My correct calls have been to sell ALL bitcoins in 2011 for $25 (never before, nor ever after), and buy back at $2-$3 (which I did follow myself).

The fact that after the actual pop in November, the old steam still inflated the bubble to almost twice the size is fun Smiley

Perhaps selling some more today - every day mounts more evidence that it's not going anywhere.
maz
full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

As a businessman who's priority is to make money money then the thoughts of some strangers on a forum should be irrelevant. If I were one of your client's I wouldn't be happy that you were neglecting your 'other projects' to engage with trolls on a forum Tongue
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫

If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.

You don't know any folks that know any system dynamics, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.

I can only *READ* those... remember this is a chaotic system.

This is a system driven by mass adoption of an invention, which has been modeled before and can be modeled here.

I should clarify: a system dynamics model won't help you with your daytrading, but it WILL provide the sort of signals rpietila is seeking about bitcoins being overbought/oversold.
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.

If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.

You don't know any folks that know any system dynamics, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.

I can only *READ* those... remember this is a chaotic system.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

I am certain that a man of your means has better things to do with his time than generate Excel trends through historical data and pretend it reveals secrets about the future.

Especially as I reveal a secret to you: just yesterday I hired an excel-wiz to crunch the numbers, and he can even post the charts here! The ominous lack of visualization is just my inability to transmit the graphics Smiley

If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.

You don't know any folks that know how to do system dynamics modeling, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1014

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

Please, don't. You have a more silent audience as well. Wink
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
you still have to set strict stop-losses and always follow them.

Are you willing to quantify this stop-loss approach, so that I could run a few simulations?

Eg. "always sell when price dips 10% from the ATH", "Buy back at ATH"

I'd be curious to see how that backtests, actually. I believe Quantopian has integrated some Bitcoin data.

Still, Bitcoin has only been at the ATH for a few brief periods in its history, so I don't know if the data set is large enough to establish anything with any certainty.
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
The significance of all this is that if we trade in a range for a few weeks it is megabullish. And right now it looks like we are going to (at worst) trade at a high range 850-1050 than a lower range 650-850.

Simply amazing. I expected more out of the bears honestly.

The bears are the ones who sold their coins and are waiting for it to go down.

The bulls are ones who have the coins and are hoping it to go up.

The funny thing is that neither bulls nor bears are in the position to influence the market to their desired direction (because they already made their own move). The success of either is dependent on how to make the other one fold. The forum (incorrectly) constantly talks about bulls buying and bears selling, which is not the case. An upward action is bear running to cover (unless it's virgin buying) and downward action is bulls panicking.

It is generally better to be bull, because the new money raises price on average 24% per month, which is really a lot.

When price has risen to much higher than the trend, however, it may be advantageous to be a bear. From now I will have 3 months to buy back at trendline at a wash, or up to 100% gain. Any number of negative things can happen meanwhile, short-term reducing the price, and my buyback method catches flashcrashes also.

The only thing I don't like with being a bear is that posting in the forum is not fun anymore. If I am right, everyone who lost their shirt is bitter at me (I am very good in explaining how right I was Wink ). If I am wrong, people whose general trackrecord is much weaker, are laughing at me. I have not made my 51% APR by listening to other people of course, but I also don't want to argue with them.

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

This could be proved wrong for the community sort and longterm. I love to tease you sometimes, but I think you're a quite valuable asset here. Also keep in mind not everybody is happy when losing money over trading. Please BEAR with them and don't get personal.

Just my 0.000002BTC
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

I am certain that a man of your means has better things to do with his time than generate Excel trends through historical data and pretend it reveals secrets about the future.

Especially as I reveal a secret to you: just yesterday I hired an excel-wiz to crunch the numbers, and he can even post the charts here! The ominous lack of visualization is just my inability to transmit the graphics Smiley
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
I think we are losing steam again. Not that anyone here follows TA Grin but now I see the triangle that Le Happy Merchant spotted.
maz
full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
Even as a short-term bear I could see last night coming a mile away. It's a basic rule that the price crashes when everyones going to the moon, so with bitfinex totally shorted out last night and everyone expecting the drop, what was there left to do but buy back in when it didn't drop, now we're back up at the high 900's when we were almost finding a stable platform at high 800's low 900's. This bull/bear yoyo'ing could go on for weeks now because there wont be another rally for a while most likely.

I'd give it a day or two... THIS IS SPART... errr.. I mean Bitcoin. Grin

I honestly can't see it Macsga, I mean the kind of mentality we have just now is like 'well we're up at ~900 now, so we may as well just rally up to 2k! lets go!', but in fact the rally which brought us to ~1240 and thus ~900 was several months of built up pressure and many positive factors including China, regardless of whether China was exploiting the ability to make quick bux through arbitrage or criminals were using it for laundering or just people in China getting on board. I think we have squeezed all of the juice out of this current 'bitcoin bull period' and to take it to the next level will require a slow period of a month or two to let the pressure build up again before the next explosion.

Hey, I remember this argument... at $600 after the first correction.

We have no idea how much "pressure" is left.

At $600 the 'trends' were still peaking (as much as I hate to depend on trends), the media was still pumping the bitcoin propaganda and people's interests were being piqued.

Now the trends are down, the media has been saturated (something thats hard for bitcoiners to accept, what people actually would just ignore our bitcoin arcitles???) and we are yesterday's news.

As far as not knowing how much 'pressure' is left. It's pretty obvious, we've been flapping off this ~1k resistance like a wet fish for for a while now, the only pressure that's left is in bull's heads.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
you still have to set strict stop-losses and always follow them.

Are you willing to quantify this stop-loss approach, so that I could run a few simulations?

Eg. "always sell when price dips 10% from the ATH", "Buy back at ATH"
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