Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31238. (Read 26731413 times)

There are moments in market when big up/down move happens, then it becomes easier to predict what happens next, this is the short window when it might be good to buy few dollars and then sell them to get more coins. Concentrate on this window. I mean rebounds. If you are holding USD just in case, you're probably losing a lot in a long run. Its always risky to go to sleep with USD. And despite you'll be using a very short windows, you still have to set strict stop-losses and always follow them.

The bears are the ones who sold their coins and are waiting for it to go down.

The bulls are ones who have the coins and are hoping it to go up.

The funny thing is that neither bulls nor bears are in the position to influence the market to their desired direction (because they already made their own move). The success of either is dependent on how to make the other one fold. The forum (incorrectly) constantly talks about bulls buying and bears selling, which is not the case. An upward action is bear running to cover (unless it's virgin buying) and downward action is bulls panicking.

It is generally better to be bull, because the new money raises price on average 24% per month, which is really a lot.

When price has risen to much higher than the trend, however, it may be advantageous to be a bear. From now I will have 3 months to buy back at trendline at a wash, or up to 100% gain. Any number of negative things can happen meanwhile, short-term reducing the price, and my buyback method catches flashcrashes also.

The only thing I don't like with being a bear is that posting in the forum is not fun anymore. If I am right, everyone who lost their shirt is bitter at me (I am very good in explaining how right I was ). If I am wrong, people whose general trackrecord is much weaker, are laughing at me. I have not made my 51% APR by listening to other people of course, but I also don't want to argue with them.

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

Hey, I remember this argument... at $600 after the first correction.

We have no idea how much "pressure" is left.

I honestly can't see it Macsga, I mean the kind of mentality we have just now is like 'well we're up at ~900 now, so we may as well just rally up to 2k! lets go!', but in fact the rally which brought us to ~1240 and thus ~900 was several months of built up pressure and many positive factors including China, regardless of whether China was exploiting the ability to make quick bux through arbitrage or criminals were using it for laundering or just people in China getting on board. I think we have squeezed all of the juice out of this current 'bitcoin bull period' and to take it to the next level will require a slow period of a month or two to let the pressure build up again before the next explosion.

You understand you will still have the ability to invest your money AFTER Bitcoin, right? If you walk away with the equivalent of 4 million USD, say, you could anticipate hedge fund returns averaging $300,000-400,000 a year without touching your principal. Read: with $4M capital you could realistically have an income of $300-400k without lifting a finger.

300-400k sounds pretty damn set for life.

I think most of us believe that success for Bitcoin means a price above $30k-40k.

you mean 100K?

I think you are completely mis-estimating these odds, but good luck to ya

It WILL explode. 100 will be more than enough. Then again... it's your life.

No, I won't hold as long as I think there is opportunity to trade.

100 could settle me for life only if BTC completely explode.

500 or 1000 could do it earlier. And I think betting with trading to reach 500/1000 is much safer option than to bet BTC will be 20-30k worth one day.

There bear... There: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/serious-bitcoin-price-discussion-bears-only-please-how-far-will-it-drop-368572 

Whose attempts? Are you talking to your monitor?

Watching your futile attempts to sustain the current price will provide me with a lot of amusement over the next few days

But what do you suggesting then?

I went short when it looked like drop is imminent, I usually play on safe and take moderate profits so I needed 10$ drop or so more, to put my trailing stop orders and finish that trade with profit even if it would reverse. It didn't happen, I went to bed, it rose contrary to all indicators and went away from me so I took a lost. Shit happens

I don't regret my trade at all, the only thing I partially regret is that I used leveraged shorting, that made my loss bigger. But it made my profit yesterday bigger too, bit smaller than loss but that's life

You should hangout with Risto then. I find 100BTC perfectly enough for anyone. My advice is "Don't be greedy". All you have to do is hold.

Upon reflection, yeah, the counterparty risk was significant. I guess I knew that at the time, although I didn't really anticipate we'd lose both Bitfunder and BTCT before the end of the year.

It is. Don't take considerable risk to increase it would be my advice.

I'm feelin the amibiens... With my lick, its breaking 1000 the moment i pass out...

┗(°0°)┛!!!

Of course you took the risk, lol... The fact you think you didn't is irrelevant completely. Risk is sometimes smaller, sometimes bigger but as soon as you send coins from your wallet you're at risk . I've had many trades that look like easy money that went bad or vice verse.

Yes, I do hold 100+ btc in various crypto investments. I do not think that is enough though.

This is so strong. Hope we can just build some volume here before taking off again next week maybe. Important to build support.

I'd give it a day or two... THIS IS SPART... errr.. I mean Bitcoin.