Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31696. (Read 26609012 times)
November 22, 2013, 02:29:15 PM
Well, second market has no need for usd withdrawals for a while, they have some kind of no sell policy for at least a few months.
November 22, 2013, 02:28:42 PM
Anybody know if there are any decent Charities that take Bitcoin yet for donations? Like Greenpeace or WaterAid or Medecin sans frontiere or whatever? I'd like to stick someone else's address in my sig.
November 22, 2013, 02:27:57 PM
$34.8 million now on the Gox order book. This is up from around $13 million at the start of October.
I understand continuing to use Gox as I've been using them since the very beginning, but I certainly wouldn't be sending them additional $ if I wanted to buy BTC in the last few months.
Is this perhaps USD that was always there, but not on the order book? Or are folks really sending new $ there? Perhaps the Second Market guys? Other large investors? I could see them not going to Bitstamp due the lack of liquidity. I still believe (no evidence) that Gox has private deals with large players for USD withdrawals. But they can't risk opening up that faucet to everyone and having it turned off unit their issued with the US Gov and CoinLab are addressed.
I understand continuing to use Gox as I've been using them since the very beginning, but I certainly wouldn't be sending them additional $ if I wanted to buy BTC in the last few months.
Is this perhaps USD that was always there, but not on the order book? Or are folks really sending new $ there? Perhaps the Second Market guys? Other large investors? I could see them not going to Bitstamp due the lack of liquidity. I still believe (no evidence) that Gox has private deals with large players for USD withdrawals. But they can't risk opening up that faucet to everyone and having it turned off unit their issued with the US Gov and CoinLab are addressed.
The only thing I did with Gox is send BTC over there to liquidate and buy new BTC at lower prices to send back to coinbase where the price is about the same to sell...
November 22, 2013, 02:26:04 PM
$34.8 million now on the Gox order book. This is up from around $13 million at the start of October.
I understand continuing to use Gox as I've been using them since the very beginning, but I certainly wouldn't be sending them additional $ if I wanted to buy BTC in the last few months.
Is this perhaps USD that was always there, but not on the order book? Or are folks really sending new $ there? Perhaps the Second Market guys? Other large investors? I could see them not going to Bitstamp due the lack of liquidity. I still believe (no evidence) that Gox has private deals with large players for USD withdrawals. But they can't risk opening up that faucet to everyone and having it turned off until their issues with the US Gov and CoinLab are addressed.
I understand continuing to use Gox as I've been using them since the very beginning, but I certainly wouldn't be sending them additional $ if I wanted to buy BTC in the last few months.
Is this perhaps USD that was always there, but not on the order book? Or are folks really sending new $ there? Perhaps the Second Market guys? Other large investors? I could see them not going to Bitstamp due the lack of liquidity. I still believe (no evidence) that Gox has private deals with large players for USD withdrawals. But they can't risk opening up that faucet to everyone and having it turned off until their issues with the US Gov and CoinLab are addressed.
November 22, 2013, 02:22:47 PM
November 22, 2013, 02:21:32 PM
This thread is quite bullish. Panic buying is in the air 
November 22, 2013, 02:19:05 PM
i'm feeling nostalgic
check out my youtube channel, its hilarious!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzl5t1Sracc
check out my youtube channel, its hilarious!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzl5t1Sracc
tahm to check teh bitcoinz
November 22, 2013, 02:17:44 PM
Bitcoin still has some way to go, all this news isn't getting through.
11:04 unsolicited call from a financial adviser trying to solicit business for a major Canadian institution.
S: I hope I haven't caught you at a bad time?
M: it depends, is it important
S: I'll let you decide
M: Ok
S: .... gives me his why? Cant remember
M: So what would you suggest I do with $X in Bitcoin today.
S: Excuse me, is that some kind of public traded company?
M: No its more like a commodity.
S: I haven't herd of it.
M: I suggest you look it up; I have to go good buy.
11:04 unsolicited call from a financial adviser trying to solicit business for a major Canadian institution.
S: I hope I haven't caught you at a bad time?
M: it depends, is it important
S: I'll let you decide
M: Ok
S: .... gives me his why? Cant remember
M: So what would you suggest I do with $X in Bitcoin today.
S: Excuse me, is that some kind of public traded company?
M: No its more like a commodity.
S: I haven't herd of it.
M: I suggest you look it up; I have to go good buy.
November 22, 2013, 02:13:25 PM
i'm feeling nostalgic
check out my youtube channel, its hilarious!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzl5t1Sracc
check out my youtube channel, its hilarious!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzl5t1Sracc
Lol, those prices....
Make u wanna cry
November 22, 2013, 02:11:37 PM
This loan thing is depending what is the situation. It's dumb to say that investing loaned money is absolutely wrong or that it's right. Many people spend rest of their lives in debt hell and investing some of that to bitcoin might be the way to get rid of that debt. There's risk but you have to calculate those risks based on your situation.
When you're in a hole, dig faster?
Maybe you can do a 180 curve while digging and get out of that hole.
You can't get out of a hole by digging - you need to find something that is about to defy gravity to lift you out
November 22, 2013, 02:07:39 PM
An exponential function is an exactly straight line on a logarithmic plot - and if the rate slows, it will go from linear to horizontal.
However, an "S-shaped" adoption curve could be a sigmoid function raised to some arbitrary power. If f(x) is a sigmoid function, then f(x)^2 will look like a sigmoid with a steeper vertical, and f(x)^100 will look like a step function (going from 0 adoption to 100% adoption in one day). So, if the power is somewhere between 1 and 2, it will look super-exponential for some period on the log plot.
(e^x)^2 = e^x * e^x = e^(x+x) which is still a straight exponential (This also applies to raising to any abitrary power)
November 22, 2013, 02:02:13 PM
Here is the thread where SlipperySlope plotted the Sigmoid onto a graph in Google Docs (about page 4-5):
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monthly-average-usdbitcoin-price-trend-322058
Read the whole thing if you are interested in technology adoption curves (or at least to where AnonyMint grinds it into the ground).
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monthly-average-usdbitcoin-price-trend-322058
Read the whole thing if you are interested in technology adoption curves (or at least to where AnonyMint grinds it into the ground).
November 22, 2013, 02:02:08 PM
November 22, 2013, 02:01:54 PM
Logarithmic growth can't be the long term fit. Sqrt(x) seems like it would never have the rate-of-increase-is-increasing quality, which we are currently seeing.
Isn't the sigmoid curve an exponential at the start that falls behind with growth? Nowhere is an increase in the rate of increase to be seen in a sigmoid curve. The so called "vertical" phase is exponential-turned-linear on its way to saturation, but I might be wrong.In an exponential, the increase in the rate of increase is proportional to the rate of increase. So yes, you do see that acceleration
To sum things up, there is nothing over-exponential in a sigmoid curve, so in a logarithmic chart you would never expect anything faster than a straight line.
However, some physical effects can be over-exponential, like the factorial numbers that appeared in rpietila's model of diffusion. Do you know any others? Maybe nuclear reactions or something like that?
Nope. For an exponential, df(x)/dx =f(x)
So for an exponential curve in time, the rate of change is proportional the the exponential. And the rate of change of the rate of change is also proportional to the exponential (i.e. increasing with time) and so on.
Oh, I see you're talking percentage change. In which case you're correct but that's not correctly called the rate of change.
An exponential function is an exactly straight line on a logarithmic plot - and if the rate slows, it will go from linear to horizontal.
However, an "S-shaped" adoption curve could be a sigmoid function raised to some arbitrary power. If f(x) is a sigmoid function, then f(x)^2 will look like a sigmoid with a steeper vertical, and f(x)^100 will look like a step function (going from 0 adoption to 100% adoption in one day). So, if the power is somewhere between 1 and 2, it will look super-exponential for some period on the log plot.
November 22, 2013, 02:00:24 PM
This loan thing is depending what is the situation. It's dumb to say that investing loaned money is absolutely wrong or that it's right. Many people spend rest of their lives in debt hell and investing some of that to bitcoin might be the way to get rid of that debt. There's risk but you have to calculate those risks based on your situation.
When you're in a hole, dig faster?
Maybe you can do a 180 curve while digging and get out of that hole.
You can't get out of a hole by digging - you need to find something that is about to defy gravity to lift you out
What if you dug sideways at a gentle upward trajectory? Or dug out stairs?
Stairs would bury you for sure, but gandhibt already nailed it, and yes a gentle upward trajectory is another way to go. Not sure I want to spend that much time in the dark
Faster, Upward - are we ready to ignite Solid Fuel! YES WE ARE. November 22, 2013, 01:59:31 PM
The real problem with that chart is that it needs to taper to reflect adoption of capital (not users) to conform to the Sigmoid. Because, isn't price what we are discussing here!?
It's an interesting question of how price relates to adoption. Should we expect the curves to be similar?
Adoption might be the more interesting (though harder) metric to understand.
I don't think price and adoption curves will correlate 1:1-- before mass adoption are both speculators and start-up innovations to infrastructure. We are only beginning to see whiffs of institutional investment. If/when institutions pull the trigger, it will be a scramble for them to take positions that are 100M - 1B USD. That's the game changer for po' folk, like us.
November 22, 2013, 01:57:34 PM
Logarithmic growth can't be the long term fit. Sqrt(x) seems like it would never have the rate-of-increase-is-increasing quality, which we are currently seeing.
Isn't the sigmoid curve an exponential at the start that falls behind with growth? Nowhere is an increase in the rate of increase to be seen in a sigmoid curve. The so called "vertical" phase is exponential-turned-linear on its way to saturation, but I might be wrong.In an exponential, the increase in the rate of increase is proportional to the rate of increase. So yes, you do see that acceleration
To sum things up, there is nothing over-exponential in a sigmoid curve, so in a logarithmic chart you would never expect anything faster than a straight line.
However, some physical effects can be over-exponential, like the factorial numbers that appeared in rpietila's model of diffusion. Do you know any others? Maybe nuclear reactions or something like that?
Nope. For an exponential, df(x)/dx =f(x)
So for an exponential curve in time, the rate of change is proportional the the exponential. And the rate of change of the rate of change is also proportional to the exponential (i.e. increasing with time) and so on.
Oh, I see you're talking percentage change. In which case you're correct but that's not correctly called the rate of change.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_function
Quote
The derivative (rate of change) of the exponential function is the exponential function itself. More generally, a function with a rate of change proportional to the function itself (rather than equal to it) is expressible in terms of the exponential function. This function property leads to exponential growth and exponential decay.
November 22, 2013, 01:57:15 PM
i'm feeling nostalgic
check out my youtube channel, its hilarious!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzl5t1Sracc
check out my youtube channel, its hilarious!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzl5t1Sracc
November 22, 2013, 01:57:03 PM
Whats all this about bitcoin not being a convenient payment method? Scan QR code, click send, whats more convenient?
I gave 0.01BTC to a friend last night. It took less than 2 minutes for him to install a wallet on his phone, me to initiate the transaction and get 1 confirmation.
I suggest everyone who can do something similar
And in the US, you can e-mail anyone from Coinbase and it will prompt them to make an account to pick it up within 60 days. After that, if they don't, it reverts back to you.
I borrowed $2 cash for the vending machines from a fellow bitcoin user and mailed him back $2 from Coinbase at the exact same time. (Probably worth $6 now.)
He signed up with Coinbase and got the $2. Couldn't have been easier.
November 22, 2013, 01:55:33 PM
https://blockchain.info/tx/1c12443203a48f42cdf7b1acee5b4b1c1fedc144cb909a3bf5edbffafb0cd204
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
DPR's mother?
I'm scared.
Has ties to Silk Road coins, Coinbox.me and LetsDice.com .. interesting
How big do you think SR was compared to, lets say, Satoshi Dice in BTC volume?
SR is what made bitcoins what they are today. Period
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