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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31707. (Read 26608495 times)

legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
Economy

Total BTC   12,022,725 BTC
Market Cap
based on latest prices
7,688,532,638 USD
or 6,588,453,300 EUR
or 23,708,813,700 PLN
or 5,470,339,875 GBP


People are...
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Risto, when do you plan to buy back at a loss - or you already did? (please bear with me Smiley)

It is not that simple Smiley

- "My" holdings are held through multiple organizations, which also have other stockholders, and they all have their different targets for investment allocation.

- Then there are arbitrage, OTC, and exchange operations that require fiat capital and are more profitable when there is high volatility, prompting to have more fiat at those times since it generates more BTC as the arbitrages are juicier (while also providing hedge against catastrophic loss when most needed).

- Then there is our family target of having a balanced allocation of crypto, precious metals, RE and other. Since crypto is the only one that tends to appreciate, if I sell too much and the price-chasing does not work, the situation corrects itself naturally and soon I am again looking for a new bubble to sell into.

=> If I make a move, I do it based on thorough analysis (thousands of lines of Excel data and hours of analysis before this one), have considered all the possible outcomes and assessed the probabilities, found a positive expected value (where the value function is a complex aggregate of all the goals of the different actors whose wealth I manage) and a bearable worst case. Then I see how it unfolds, and pocket the profit or loss according to the plan.

If bitcoin goes up, it is a profit really, because it opens up new opportunities to influence the world to the better. Also in this case it rewards us with a 7-figure fiat position.

If it goes down, then my greatest pleasure is that my market analysis was correct, and I also get to cash out a small amount of fiat, and keep the bitcoin count the same or even slightly increase it. So this is also profit.

With bitcoin, you cannot actually lose, that is the beauty of it  Kiss  Grin
hero member
Activity: 841
Merit: 1000
That Kraken clown finally removed his wall. Think he is going to try his luck on another exhange Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 587
Space Lord
I've just discovered a new scheme to get rich quickly. Just listen to rpietila advices and then do opposite as he says.

Cheesy


Btw. CHOO CHOO!!!
hero member
Activity: 509
Merit: 500
Can't upload avatar
maz
full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100


If we go crazy from here (we are already well above/ahead of the long-term trend), the inevitable result is crash...
It still surprises me, for someone with such insight and the math as you have, that you're seeing an inevitability to the future based on what has been.  You talk of the 'long-term trend' as if we know what it will be.  We only know what it has been to date and looking at the 'S-curved chart' as described so beautifully by James G. Angelo in what both you and he (and I) see as the early days it is volatile and there is much random unpredictable noise such that the formula defining the curve is very difficult to ascertain - especially with the gradient of the curve being so shallow at this juncture (yes, even at current growth in comparison with potential).  Surely we will only be able to give the S-curve its formula after the event?  Whilst your current calculations and projections may after the removal of noise turn out to be 100% correct I would venture it is a lot more likely to be incorrect, possibly by quite a lot.  There is a danger in having the understanding you do of math that you get to believe what is to come will nicely follow your formula.

Always remember:  This is Bitcoin - there is no inevitability!!!

Thanks for the youtube link, that is a great video!

Is it generally accepted that we are at the bottom of the vertical at the moment?
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
Someone just posted a huge wall ...
Must be rpietila  Grin
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 587
Space Lord
Bitstamp's on it's way to a new ATH, whereas Gox is still battling around the 750 mark... good time to transfer from Gox to Stamp?

You won't be dealing with GoxBux, that's for sure. Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
Someone just posted a huge wall ...
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
RMBTB.com: The secure BTC:CNY exchange. 0% fee!
Bitstamp's on it's way to a new ATH, whereas Gox is still battling around the 750 mark... good time to transfer from Gox to Stamp?

Maybe the reason it's like that is because you're not the only one  Wink
newbie
Activity: 33
Merit: 0
Bitstamp's on it's way to a new ATH, whereas Gox is still battling around the 750 mark... good time to transfer from Gox to Stamp?
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
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legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
After HUGE public demand I present you a detailed graphic analysis of what just happened:

Our Economic tech. dept. has a legit prediction of what's going to follow:

^^^^
THIS!
legendary
Activity: 3122
Merit: 1538
yes
This is the beginning of something epic.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 587
Space Lord
Pretty stable upwards trend on Bitstamp Wink
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
Again and again , why does it have to either crash or go to the moon , can't it have a week of relaxation around this comfy 700 price?

Because this is Bitcoin Cheesy

Bitcoin price derives from human actions , can't you all take 24(h) off ?
It's morning , raining , no coffee , and in this situation price movements aren't as funny as they were.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
Again and again , why does it have to either crash or go to the moon , can't it have a week of relaxation around this comfy 700 price?

I suggest you get some sleep  Cheesy

I just wake up Cheesy.
And unlike most of people here I couldn't care about those bumps , call me when it hits 10k.
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
(In the real world, sorting out a possible delivery problem with international postal services does not happen during weekend/night hours. Even the company of mine that was doing the shipping is 100% offline and unreachable until Monday 9 am, and it is in a different country than me. But telling the guy to wait a reasonable "2 weeks" would possibly have escalated the situation)

So who's crazy? Us, or the guys in the "real world"?
legendary
Activity: 854
Merit: 1000
Again and again , why does it have to either crash or go to the moon , can't it have a week of relaxation around this comfy 700 price?

I suggest you get some sleep  Cheesy
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