Did the walls look like this in april before crashing to 50?
How many bitcoins do you have? You don't need to tell me. How much do you know about bitcoin, compared to the ones that have 10x less? Yes, you tend to have a very different knowledge and mindset than they do.
Now is the difficult part. How do the people think that have more bitcoins than you do, let's say 10x more? Don't they think differently than you? What are the implications?
I have a certain number of bitcoins and think a certain way. I extrapolate that the guys above me know even more and better than I do. If they have figured out that this is a good time to have a breather, they will execute their will. If I am wrong, I will eat my losses ($2 million in bank is a such a shame to have). Bitcoin is a managed currency.
--Of course the walls etc. have predictive value, but the difference is: you accept them, I erect them. The actual game is, whether (or: who of the) manipulators can increase their coincount, and how to keep the price appreciating such that it preserves bitcoin's long term potential to replace fiat.