Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32350. (Read 26469706 times)
August 31, 2013, 10:01:57 AM
August 31, 2013, 10:00:30 AM
I love walsoraj... in my eyes, he was solely responsible for reversing the downward trend after the bubble burst... he was the champion who turned Jaroslaw upside down!
He's just grumpy lately because of Mt. Gox... we all are...
He's just grumpy lately because of Mt. Gox... we all are...
August 31, 2013, 09:32:11 AM
When will we cross 150 USD on MtGox?
Big milestone I would say!!
This already happened twice April 7. and April 24. (rally from $140 to $163 in less than 24 hours) :-) Will we see tomorrow the same ?
With bitcoin, anything is possible
August 31, 2013, 09:02:03 AM
August 31, 2013, 08:24:28 AM
When will we cross 150 USD on MtGox?
Big milestone I would say!!
This already happened twice April 7. and April 24. (rally from $140 to $163 in less than 24 hours) :-) Will we see tomorrow the same ?
August 31, 2013, 08:22:02 AM
Fibonacci 61.8% suggests room for $164 to some $180. Keep your fiat ready after that.
August 31, 2013, 08:21:07 AM
please explain how a BUY of bitcoins is "fiat leaving". If it's indeed capital flight from gox in the form of bitcoins, those have to be SOLD in order for fiat to leave the bitcoin system.
Yes, and even if this were the case, we are talking strictly that fiat stays fiat (with no net effect to bitcoin demand).
1. If there was selling pressure of bitcoins, the price would be trending down.
2. What we are witnessing, is large-scale buying. There is not so much evidence from the trade records that this buying is offsetted by selling in other exchanges. So a large part of Gox is not capital flight (isn't it ironic that bitcoin is the best way to move fiat capital around these days?), rather it is legitimate buying for investment.
(Of course buying and selling volume must every moment exactly equal. Therefore a price shooting up is labeled "increased buying" and conversely.)
Can ya'll stop quoting walsoraj?
+1.
August 31, 2013, 08:20:44 AM
Then it will be interesting to see what happens the next 2 months.
You better pray volume doesn't pick up. That simply means fiat leaving the system faster.
please explain how a BUY of bitcoins is "fiat leaving". If it's indeed capital flight from gox in the form of bitcoins, those have to be SOLD in order for fiat to leave the bitcoin system.
Of course it's not fiat leaving, the fiat merely gets transferred to another MtGox account.
August 31, 2013, 08:13:07 AM
Can ya'll stop quoting walsoraj?
August 31, 2013, 08:05:35 AM
Then it will be interesting to see what happens the next 2 months.
You better pray volume doesn't pick up. That simply means fiat leaving the system faster.
please explain how a BUY of bitcoins is "fiat leaving". If it's indeed capital flight from gox in the form of bitcoins, those have to be SOLD in order for fiat to leave the bitcoin system.
August 31, 2013, 07:27:45 AM
How can this woman predict natural disasters ? What a load of crap.
It's not just some random woman, it's the DHS - just because they call it a natural disaster doesn't mean that's what it really is, it could be referring to the salt domes collapsing after BP drilled into them - it could be anything really.
August 31, 2013, 07:20:58 AM
Bitstamp just surpassed yesterdays high
If Bitstamp passes 131 then the previous major pivot high is breached. Any die-hard 2011 bubble theorists still out there are going to have to revisit the drawing-board in a big way.
August 31, 2013, 07:14:27 AM
Bitstamp just surpassed yesterdays high
August 31, 2013, 07:01:11 AM
I think a lot of people realize that even with the insolvency/seizure risk (and low float rate) it might still better to hold six figures (or more) on an exchange rather than withdrawing and declaring taxes on it. This obviously depends on our cost/benefit analysis.
They can mitigate this risk by buying BTC when the exchange has a cash flow problem or is facing regulatory scrutiny.
One could analyze the cost/benefit ratio this way: One could determine the risk of holding X sum of money on a given exchange (or multiple exchanges) and subtract a conservative amount of risk for proper management (i.e. going all-in to BTC when the risk of seizure/insolvency increases). They could determine the tax liability as well, which is the risk of withdrawal. Compare these risks against each other and one can determine whether it is safer to keep USD on an exchange (with the caveat that it must be converted into BTC, exposing one to exchange rate risk, when the regulatory or cash flow issues present themselves) or to accept the tax liability.
Obviously we can argue all day and night over which strategy has more risk, since some of the risks aren't easily quantifiable. We don't really have the data to asses this (we'd need everything from WMA bitcoin exchange float rates to % recoverable funds to current "bitcoin VIX" or downside move stats tax liabilites in various jurisdictions) but I'm sure there are some people who are starting to realize they can use the exchanges as a 'non-anonymous yet no-tax-liability so long as I don't withdraw' offshore bank account to some degree, holding their fiat there forever and then purchasing, shuffling and anonymizing BTC for purchase OTC or to anonymously/pseudonymously purchase real goods and services without having to declare the income first. I'm not saying this is an invincible strategy, but the law enforcement burden would be enormous, and there are most likely rich folks out there doing exactly what I have described.
EDIT: In case the feds are reading, I don't have anywhere near enough money to even consider myself "a rich person trying to evade taxes on the internet," so please don't waste tax dollars investigating my broke a$$. I'm merely speculating on what these bastards are doing with the bitcoin price.
They can mitigate this risk by buying BTC when the exchange has a cash flow problem or is facing regulatory scrutiny.
One could analyze the cost/benefit ratio this way: One could determine the risk of holding X sum of money on a given exchange (or multiple exchanges) and subtract a conservative amount of risk for proper management (i.e. going all-in to BTC when the risk of seizure/insolvency increases). They could determine the tax liability as well, which is the risk of withdrawal. Compare these risks against each other and one can determine whether it is safer to keep USD on an exchange (with the caveat that it must be converted into BTC, exposing one to exchange rate risk, when the regulatory or cash flow issues present themselves) or to accept the tax liability.
Obviously we can argue all day and night over which strategy has more risk, since some of the risks aren't easily quantifiable. We don't really have the data to asses this (we'd need everything from WMA bitcoin exchange float rates to % recoverable funds to current "bitcoin VIX" or downside move stats tax liabilites in various jurisdictions) but I'm sure there are some people who are starting to realize they can use the exchanges as a 'non-anonymous yet no-tax-liability so long as I don't withdraw' offshore bank account to some degree, holding their fiat there forever and then purchasing, shuffling and anonymizing BTC for purchase OTC or to anonymously/pseudonymously purchase real goods and services without having to declare the income first. I'm not saying this is an invincible strategy, but the law enforcement burden would be enormous, and there are most likely rich folks out there doing exactly what I have described.
EDIT: In case the feds are reading, I don't have anywhere near enough money to even consider myself "a rich person trying to evade taxes on the internet," so please don't waste tax dollars investigating my broke a$$. I'm merely speculating on what these bastards are doing with the bitcoin price.
Good thinking. We the rich, prefer to invest cold-bloodedly, and assess the risks in percentages. In my case, for example, selling bitcoins from my long-term personal holding (which has never been dipped into), would result in 24% tax of the amount sold (since it is practically all profit, measured in fiat).
Even if there is 50% probability of Gox going belly up this year, and in 20% probability this will lead to the total loss of BTC holdings there, the estimated loss is only 10% (50%*20%). Much less than the loss to taxman by selling the coins.
Government has confiscated physical gold and silver from me, my companies and my customers in 2008. It is not that all the value confiscated will be indefinitely kept by the government, because it is illegal and unpractical for them to do so. The risk premium (discount applied when my customers bought silver in gov custody, to be delivered when it is returned to me) was 10% during the time. The metals were held for 7.5 months, returned in full after the investigation and no charges were filed.
The feds are threatening the bitcoin holders with unlawfully long process times. They don't have the authority to take and keep your bitcoins without due process, not any more from Mt.Gox than your personal holdings.
August 31, 2013, 06:49:40 AM
look at bitcoin.de ... here the rally started with a time lag, half an hour before we reached 99 Euro
August 31, 2013, 06:33:53 AM
Well we finally crossed 140 again with a healthy support wall. I think this is going to be an interesting weekend.
August 31, 2013, 06:32:31 AM
It's only been a few months, but bitcoin is a lot more useful today then it was back in April. Surprisingly, I actually make purchases quite regularly with it these days. Millions of dollars of ASIC equipment is bought with it, the Chinese market is growing fast and it's even connected with Mpesa now bringing bitcoin to everyone in Kenya. Not to mention that butter coin seems well funded and looks like they are moving quickly to enter the remittance market in force, and don't forget we are actually talking directly with the government about the future now.
Gox this, gox that. The point is, Bitcoin works. That's worth investing in.
Gox this, gox that. The point is, Bitcoin works. That's worth investing in.
August 31, 2013, 06:11:43 AM
Satoshi would not have invented bitcoin without 2008 crisis. He wrote some comments on the blockchain about it
Insanity is the financial system we have. Bitcoin is sanity.
Insanity is the financial system we have. Bitcoin is sanity.
Satoshi worked in Bitcoin for years prior to the 2008 crisis. He had likely thought the financial system was insane for a long time.
August 31, 2013, 04:46:28 AM
maybe it has something to do with:
The outgoing Homeland Security Secretary has a warning for her successor: A massive and “serious” cyber attack on the U.S. homeland is coming, and a natural disaster — the likes of which the nation has never seen — is also likely on its way.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/08/outgoing-dhs-secretary-janet-napolitano-warns-of-serious-cyber-attackunprecedented-natural-disaster/
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the cyber attack may be a way to shift blame from the banksters when they pull the pin on the economy - a good time for that would be after the US launches a couple of missiles on Syria.
The outgoing Homeland Security Secretary has a warning for her successor: A massive and “serious” cyber attack on the U.S. homeland is coming, and a natural disaster — the likes of which the nation has never seen — is also likely on its way.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/08/outgoing-dhs-secretary-janet-napolitano-warns-of-serious-cyber-attackunprecedented-natural-disaster/
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the cyber attack may be a way to shift blame from the banksters when they pull the pin on the economy - a good time for that would be after the US launches a couple of missiles on Syria.
How can this woman predict natural disasters ? What a load of crap.
August 31, 2013, 01:02:10 AM
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