Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3267. (Read 26717130 times)

Explanation

Nope. It has to do with Star Trek 

Explanation

Explanation

Tuur Demeester says what?

https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1545571826838867969/photo/1

Pretty nice...is this guy something? I wonder if he invested accordingly.

EDIT: having said that he is into flippening (or not, lol)...oh, well, people can be right on something and completely wrong on something else.
EDIT2: or, maybe, he was joking...whatever. Some people make it too cute.

Hahahaha

Remember Vinny Lingham from early 2017?  For some reason Lingham had a lot of credibility at that time..

and lingham was predicting doom and gloom and sub $500 was inevitable blah blah blah.. .. saying that he was still bullish bitcoin.. but saying that too much negative price pressures and a need to go down before up..

O'Leary kind of reminds me of that.. .. trying to milk their reputations and act like they know fuck all.


Exactly.. somebody stormed something for some reason. and it was like a political thing.. or maybe not.. it was so long ago.. who can remember details?



It is a bit funny how each of the stick-with-it ones of us ended up tailoring a system that was comfortable for us, and frequently they do not fit any kind of exact mold, and sure some guys were way more sporadic than others, and it is not easy to create something consistent and to follow it.  


I cannot even blame guys (and gal) if they had a lot of inconsistencies in their way of getting into bitcoin and sometimes figuring it out later (if they did).  Most of my 20s, I had investment practices that were all over the fucking place - even though I thought that I was mostly DCA investing into things, but at the same time, I would cash out some of what I had been building and I did not always invest in good and consistent ways, but of course, there was nothing that really even came close to the bitcoin that we have now or even the bitcoin that we have had in the past 9 years or so.

I'm not really sure that it was so obvious that 2015 was perceived as the "opportunity" that retrospectively we realized it to be, but pretty much the whole year you could have bought coins in the mid-$200s, absent the last 2.5 months of the year... So the more that you were able to buy into BTC throughout the whole of 2015, the more that you would have been subsequently realized yourself to have been in a great price set-up location.

So I would call yours a variation of DCA, even though there is a bit of a spacing out of the buying increments, but of course, it does seem to have some lump sum aspects to it, and not so much buying on dip since you are saying that you did not really look at the price - which is kind of hard to believe that you might not attempt to at least be a wee bit strategic in terms of that.. but I can also appreciate the idea of once you authorize yourself to buy then you largely just complete the buy in the range of whatever it happens to be at the time.

I think that one of the more pure forms of lump sum buying is to put decently large amounts of money in to the investment (in this case BTC), and to just subscribe to some kind of a timeline theory in terms of when you might reassess at certain points whether to keep it in or even just to have a longer term timeline that you might let it ride for a year or two before reassessing.  Sometimes such a lump sum practice can work - especially if it is bought on a dip and then there is some kind of vision regarding how to invest - even though I tend to think that some variation of DCA does allow for more of an active following approach, especially if there might have been an investment that was not quite at the bottom, and then either DCA on the way down or to at least carry out a few more lump sum investments when the BTC price is lower.. but at the same time sometimes the lump sum investor is so detached from understanding what they are investing in that they might not end up making the better decision, including that they don't have enough confidence to continue to buy more in case the asset continues to go down and they feel like they end up losing more than they had already put into the asset.

Remember we had AverageGlabella who came in and pretty much cashed in a variety of other assets in order to go all in at around $35k earlier in this year .. and so for that member there was a lot of thrill when the BTC price went up to the upper $40ks a few times, but then a month or so ago AG came back when the price went back below the bought price and was worried and maybe even excessively worried which is a sign of potential overinvestment (and even failure to have more money to invest either financially or psychologically), and surely there is some level of radio silence from AG, even though I am pretty sure the member is continuing to hold, and we have a pretty good idea that AG's portfolio went pretty far under water (even now), and just like mindrust did not show any signs of mindrusting until it happens.. I would imaging that most members are not going to post when they end up mindrusting (if that ends up happening).  We can never know, and only the member knows how to attempt to handle the situation and if they are able to buy more (psychologically and financially) of if some other action might be needed or desired (and sometimes members will do something that is quite contrary to recommended best course of action), and in those situations, if you believe in BTC, I get the sense it may well be better to continue to buy - even small amounts.. but I am in a different place and each person has to decide for himself/herself (considering psychology and finances).

I take it that you are still buying every few months... $2k is a bit of a high price for someone who got in at $250-ish.. but it is understandable too... we have right around 1.5 years of BTC prices higher than current prices.. Holy moley!!!


There seems to be luck, persistency, consistency, patience... and maybe some critical thinking and ability to control emotions.. but for sure, I am not going to discount luck.. we have had the conversation before, and  there is a certain amount of luck in being in the right place at the right time.. and fuck none of us are likely so damned lucky that we bought at the bottom and sold at the top and the various other kinds of gambling luck set, but we likely have several mistakes along the way, but just enough luck that we are in a position that is likely way greater than it would be if we had not had some luck along the way.. even while we had some times of sweating our balls off too.. hahahaaha.. speaking for myself... and just imagining that there are some stressful times about what to do, exactly,... even when things are going relatively good and even when there is already a plan in place.. tweak or not.. let it ride or not.. .. and some people might be calling you dumb sometimes too.. hahahahaha. you should have sold at $69k.. or whatever..

What you going to do?  what you going to do?

By the way, recently I just partially bailed someone out (a gambler.. too much with third parties.. and enticement of the "yield" with an asset that is designed to pump forever.. why you need to chase those systems? yields...).. .. I am not exactly cash abundant at the moment.. but it was likely the right thing to do.. fuck.. .  I know another person too.. and I was afraid to ask.. that person did not say anything to me.. I did no say anything to that person..

Thanks.

So if going by close, we get a different ATH depending on the time frame (hourly, daily, etc), hence a different size of decline to the low.
I guess they have chosen the weekly to get the 69%.

Dunno what to make of that but for this chart content the ATH is important.  And I feel an ATH should be the max and not some closing price that can be chosen arbitrarily.
Well IMO  ...fuck you Glassnode  

Btw it seems the tweet has already been deleted... wonder why..

 

Explanation

I believe current theory is that barter was never really much of a thing and that some kind of fungible unit of account comes into play pretty much immediately. Though surely there's no way to know for sure.

Are you still buying BTC right now? Your average is under $2k which means the number of BTC in your portfolio is significant. Buying from 2015 and average buy is under $2k that means you didn't face the last bear market bottom too. You did an awesome job that most investors.

Just wanted a clarification since there was an actual attack on the Whitehouse on 5/29/2020. The media doesn't talk about that quite as much though.

re your point...some people tend to ignore intraday's highs/lows and go with an official "close" (whatever this means for bitcoin).
The highest close afaik was $67566 or thereabout. If we calculate based on this, then the decline was 73.96%.
I agree that it was not below 70%, that's for sure.

Explanation

Little Wooden Ship w/ an impossible task???

Invading sovereign countries isn't defense. It isn't when others do it, it isn't when Russia does it. And of course, there is no right to invade other countries...

As for the US hegemony, this war is rather helping the US, so far.

Explanation

I've always lump-sum-bought and HoDLed. Except that the lump sums were coming every few months from 2015 onwards. Is that called DCA? I never really looked at the price, fiat never stayed in my hands or the exchange for more than a few days. Market buys only. Has worked out well for me. Average break-even price is under $2k.

I guess I got lucky, going in at the deep dip of 2015. Thank you, Andreas Antonopoulos, that talk of yours that I watched was so enlightening that I did not sleep that night. I had to find a way to buy. And I did. At a local Bitcoin ATM. Great times.

tl;dr: There is no top. Seriously. Buy now. Buy Bitcoin. HoDL.

Explanation

So if I get it right, they use the highest and lowest point of each cycle in order to compare the cycles.
But only this cycle they don't use the lowest point (which was 17592$ on Stamp), but a higher price point ?

For me that doesn't make any sense as a comparison.  Could someone explain to stupid me?

The decline percentage we had was (ballpark figures):

Bitstamp 69000 -> 17592   74.5% decline

Coinmarketcap 69044 -> 17760.   74.3% decline

NOT 69.34%


Is that fud aka we will probably go to a new cycle low from here?



side note:

Glassnode may have some interesting data, but I feel well over 50% of the conclusions they stimulate are false.

Do you remember, when in the last 2 years guys like Willy Woo used onchain tools and failed with their cycle and price predictions almost every time ?

Again onchain shows some intersting stuff, but it can also be easily used by manipulators to mislead the masses.


I don't trust like that!^TM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zONW46d50A0