Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33099. (Read 26496786 times)

You might be right but at the same time wrong. Look at my comment above on how the order book looks good but those sells keep smacking it down (And they are not showing up there.)

I honestly figured we were going towards 50. We should have hit some 80's or 70's by now.
Instead we move sideways and there seems to be the sentiment that $100 coin is not to expensive.

edit:
I was about to sell 15% of my stack but as of now am still 100% (well 99% orso) BTC

I would not put it that strongly ... they are just feeding a nation/world's addiction to gambling
Yes, I know they are UK based. I feel safer (for now) having fiat with them than in an account in Slovenia, which is rumoured to be on the edge of a banking crisis. When I think its time to actually buy and hold BTC I will use my Bitstamp account. Meanwhile Plus500 is quicker and safer from my experience. No wallet to get hacked and a nice fiat paper trail.
Leverage and shorting is another issue ... really depends on the net house position, on which we can only speculate. Bad risk management, yeah, could get fucked. I would be more worried if they only traded Bitcoin. As it is, they have other revenue streams.

I agree, if they lose and go bust, customers are left holding the bag, but that's the same if an exchange gets hacked/closed down. We are always on the wrong side of these things and always will be . It's part of the game right now.

EDIT : Shorting, leverage and manipulation are 3 completely seperate things. A market that cannot be shorted is more open to manipulation than one that can. It's when things get out of control and the speculative money is running the market that we have a problem. As for leverage, it's only a danger if you don't know how to use it and over-extend yourself (translation - get too greedy  ). On a macro scale, yes, that's a huge problem ... banks and governments are massively over-leveraged - that's the real scam. The tax payer is short a put and being charged for it !

I'm split. You are right - the order book is looking good and has been for days (at least within $5-$10 of the current price). But notice when we start moving in those sells just hit us down again?
It just happened a few minutes ago as I was watching the Gox market. Maybe 350 - 400 BTC sells came through in batches of 50-100 or so. That has been happening for a while, so I don't
exactly trust the order book.

and thats why BTC is hard to TA. the sentiment here turned bullish  

I only know, it is easy to extract $$$ from plus500 :-) (they do not understand what is bitcoin) Nothing illegal they make bet I'll accept bet ... I'll win bet. Theirs company go down. Somebody makes mistake.

duly noted but vetoing    i'm trusting a read on the flow of the order book. The action is painting a picture of a reversal in recent pessimism. Still a bull(shit?) market haha

so then we are going down (maybe to single number or even negative one :-) ) .. who cares ? (not me .. using FA)

The fact is that shorting with leverage crap is a motherfucking scam. It's just gambling in its purest form, but they are gambling with customers money - if they lose big time and go bust, it's their customers who are left holding the bag. The managers who drive the business are just swimming in money pools and are the same scammers doing the very same tricks that trigger the financial crisis in the modern world.

Did you know that plus500 is owned by UK banks, did you?

Windows XP...

Excel...

RUNNNNN! 

Well, you guys might be right that we move up. But here is another bad divergence(s).

https://twitter.com/AlbertarocksTA/status/346698741585170432/photo/1

I'm not sure they can DO HEDGE (they do not have enough bitcoins) ... beacause they do not know how much I'll short at their platform (and they need 4x more ... if I'll try short 12M btc then they will need 48M.  ... and there are only 12M existing ).

like someone said.... most of us are sick in the head..... 

YOU cannot buy or sell Bitcoins with them .. it is all CFDs. That does not mean that THEY do not use BTC to hedge when and where they can, and I would be very surprised if they do not

EDIT : I specifically asked them about how they hedged their Bitcoin exposure and was told that they could not divulge this information. Seeing as their spread is nearly always exactly centred around the midpoint of the Gox bid/ask, it does not look like they are taking positions and then moving prices accordingly.
Their business model is fine unless all their clients are short and it crashes. Otherwise they can always hedge on a Gox account.

It's a pity they don't allow people to fund their accounts directly with Bitcoin. I think they would get a lot of new customers doing this.

I think their business model has error :-). They do not buy or sell bitcoins. You cannot buy/sell bitcoin at plus500 ... only make CFD.

edit: you can after CFD manipulate price easy (if you have enough resources)
edit2: even use leverage 4:1

...that's exactly what makes it profitable, and a great example of what will cause the exponential price increase, once the risk/reward balance gets high enough.

An investor makes a bet, then moves the market to make their trade succeed.
This works beautifully until a second, contrarian investor gets the same idea.

...except once someone with that much money gets to this point in the thought process, they're not making that bet.
Quite simply, they're too exposed.  Smart money looks for its hedge.

I think far more likely, anyone making high-dollar contract-for-difference bets will also have bitcoins on a market, in order to move into/out of fiat alongside such positions.

Not necessarily true ... depends on the net position that Plus500 hold, how much risk they take on their book and how much they hedge on Gox or other exchanges if they are net short. Not sure how they deal with net long unless they are able to borrow BTC to short.

EDIT : As for the leveraged pump or dump strategy, I doubt you would be able to take a big enough position with them for this to work

At plus500 you do not need bitcoin (CFD) ... you sell bitcoins only virtualy (in reality no one is sold .. price at gox is same)