Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3311. (Read 26715880 times)

Explanation

these kinds of posts do not reflect well upon you.




You don't have any loans or leverage in your calculations?  

Some of the miners who got fucked or are about to get fucked are the ones who played their finances really BIG in terms of the amount of leverage that they were using to buy new equipment, hold rather than sell bitcoin and maybe expanding their operations faster than they should have reasonably expected to have been able to do.. which in some sense relied upon BTC prices either staying flat (no loer than $30ks) or going up.. and surely were not sufficiently prepared for BTC price to go down.. maybe even some of them starting to suffer pretty severely once BT prices got below $25k or so.


Well we have macroeconomic conditions, true.. but we also have a lot of risky and highly leveraged players contributing to some of the cascading downity pressures in recent times (even more so as of May-ish), no?  

In other words, it is not just macroeconomic conditions that put us in our current place of ongoing downity pressures.  Some other folk believe that we are just in a normal cycle.. I have my doubts, but the normal cycle theory is not without some possible validity.. including that the trend is your friend, and once momentum is going down, the bearwhales are going to push it down as far as they can and for as long as they can including but not limited to playing whatever dirty tricks that they are able to pull out of their hats (if they wear hats like "we" do?).


Not expecting.

Waiting for.

 


The best plan is to NOT have a plan.

Is that the Biodom way?

or did you steal that plan from someone else?

#justasking.



I don't disagree with you, but I doubt it was preordained or anythng like that.  You must have been reading Torque's playbook to come up with that idea.    

Stop reading the playbooks of other members.  !!!!

 



I cannot disagree with you about that.  I am considering some additional changes to my own asset/cash reorganizing efforts.. that includes (or will be mostly focused on) non-bitcoin assets, too.  It may take me a couple of weeks for me to work it out, and I might disclose some aspects of it later, because even though it does not immediately involve bitcoin, it is likely to have some down the road effects on bitcoin due to changes in some of my cashflow thjat would run into the future and then have a kind of cumulative effect.



Gosh.. you (Biodom) have pretty narrow preference areas in the world.. or at least you are arguably selective.. so ultimately nothing wrong with that, even though I thought that the world was a wee bit moar bigger than the "possible" second passport areas that you are suggesting to be  potentially suitable for you.. but for sure each of us has our preferences and inclinations too.

Why would I need my ego stroked by such riff-raff as you?


I dislike you.

You profited from shilling for the DeepOnion scam, a massively premined P&D fake-privacy coin with a transparent blockchain (!).  You defended it with the same arrogance and audacity as you hereby show.  You attacked and insulted people who called it what it was:  A scam.

You now profit from shilling for Wasabi Wallet, a “privacy” wallet in bed with blockchain analysis.

You have made a forum career of pushing projects that give a false sense of privacy and security.  As a privacy activist with a high degree of technical expertise in the subject, I am likely to dislike that!

Hereby, your transparent prevarication about your intentions in “genuinely wanting some feedback as to... how effective is the ignore button” would not fool even a dull child.

Upon all of that, you claim the improbable as noted below.  Your credibility does not support the making of improbable claims.


I think the preponderance of probabilities is that you picked up the theme from the copious recent discussion of gold here, but wished to avoid acknowledging me.  I do not give a hoot if you read my posts; but if you do, and if you cadge ideas from me, I always demand acknowledgment.  It is the only form of payment I have ever sought here, other than occasionally putting out a tip address.  (Sigspamming for fake privacy projects would surely be more profitable; but then, I would need to live up to my name by committing honour-suicide.)

It is unsurprising that you would take a position contrary to my arguments, given that you are usually wrong.


Have you ever repudiated DeepOnion, and made some sort of material restitution for profiting off a scam?  Have you ever even apologized to the people whom you attacked for calling a scam a scam?

Have you re-evaluated your current sigspamming for Wasabi, Spying and Censorship Edition?

Let’s start with that.  It could be a long list, and I know that you don’t like to read too much.

Explanation

Riiiiggghhht


yeah... rrriiigggghhhtt


More or less that is how buying on the dip and/or DCA is supposed to be done. 

About a day and a half ago, I wrote out a pretty detailed responsive post on the topic of Saylor's most recent buy that was a bit critical of Saylor in regards to his having had not really been buying on the dips (lack of price sensitivity), but largely agreeing with his ability to exercise discretion and work out these matters for himself (and his company), if anyone is interested to read what I wrote. 

I am not even trying to imply that Saylor is not smart.. but sometimes BTC price movements can end up putting some of us in very similar/comparable situations and it is a matter of quantity of money even though we might end up in similar places in terms of percentages.  Interesting for sure, and so difficult to know while we are going through these matters regarding how long the negative parts will last or how far DOWNity it will go.

Can humble the best and the BIGGEST of players, and surely we are also finding out how some pretty damned BIG ASS players (not referring to Saylor) have been really humbled when they were being sneaky about NOT having the BTC that they claimed that they had.. Playing with customer funds and also misleading customers in  terms of the strength of how their BTC was "earning yield" through implicitly could business practices (for sure there is no evidence to even implicate Saylor in playing those kinds of extreme (and likely illegal/fraud) games).


I am suffering a lot of doubts about this possibility.


I have a lot of doubts about this timeline too...

but the more I think about it is truly we have to see the bottom first.. and then we have to recover.. so yeah.. part 1 and part 2... Hardly could presume less than 6 months.. even a April 2019 scenario took 5 months to reverse and then 3 months to raise.. and we ONLY got about a 3.5x raise from the jump off (I mean up) base.. .. so 8 months minimum to reach $50k seems reasonable... at the same time, I get the sense (from the last time that I checked with him) that King Daddy does not like limits and does not like being reasonable, either.

In other news...

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220630-climate-activists-glue-hands-to-van-gogh-frame-in-london-gallery

There is no excuse for spreading wrong information and urban legends.


You got it backwards.  You are hypertechnically (and incorrectly) seizing onto a number that has theoretical significance, but no practical significance to the ordinary user.  The 10-minute average is a practically useless number to most people.  It does not matter to everyday usage of Bitcoin.


Bitcoin works.  People are confused by the misinformation of “about 10 minutes”.  It makes them upset.  It makes them wonder if Bitcoin is broken, when they get hit with occasional hour-long confirmation times.  Then, they go to faux-decentralized, lower-security shitcoins that promise “instant finality blah blah blah”.

Moreover, you are wrong about the $1 million transaction.  Anyone transacting for $1 million in value probably wants more than one confirmation.  The more confirmations you wait, the more relevant the 10-minute average becomes.  If you wait six confirmations, it will more likely take closer to 60 minutes than a single confirmation is to take “about 10 minutes”.  That is how averages work!  It is why Bitcoin’s targeting algorithm works:  It targets an average over many blocks.

Please open up your desktop calculator, play around with the CDF and PDF of the exponential distribution with λ = 0.1 (or λ = 1/600 if you are measuring in seconds), and get a feel for the extraordinary shape of a curve that defies human intuition.  You will soon be appalled at just how useless the 10-minute average is for ordinary, everyday usage.

---

Technical misinformation should always be corrected.  The notion that “a block takes about 10 minutes” is an urban legend.  It is counterproductive.  It is confusing to users in everyday real-life practical scenarios.  Please stop spreading it.

What did me quite good lately was to quit reading articles (and "articles") mentioning crypto with Bitcoin in titles.
#justsayin  

Cool.  Thanks.  Any chance I could get an SVG of that, to tweak and remix for future use as avatars, corporate logos, billboards, national flags, etc.?

Explanation

https://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-outlook-technicals-key-support-2019-high-katie-stockton-2022-6

There is an old saying:  “May I not be put to the test.”

I despise the stereotype of thoughtless people who declare, “I would rather X than Y,” without any deep, experiential, introspective knowledge of how they react in various situations.  Those whose shallow lives have had comforts that they inevitably take for granted.  It is commonplace.

If you better knew me...  Sigh.  I am usually in the position of correcting people when they make such declarations, and it is clear to me that they would most likely betray all they ever loved to claim a bribe of a million dollars, or even much less—never mind a billion!

I choose my words carefully, and I do not speak lightly.

On the flipside, I have faced the moment of truth.  I have had the real-life experience of defiantly declaring, “I would rather die in the gutter than do X,” and soon thereafter struggling to survive, very nearly dying in the gutter, and incurring irreparable permanent damage to my health, instead of surrendering and succumbing to X.  I know whereof I speak.  I will never do X.

But it is not the way of the modern world.  I am an atavism.


True.

My own perceptions are much affected by some seemingly impossible extremes.  I have had the experience of reposing absolute, unreserved, unconditional trust in a faceless, voiceless, totally anonymous party whom I could never meet.  A disembodied soul, insofar as I was concerned.  Whoever it was, I trusted that person far more than I trusted the woman whom I once almost married IRL.  The experience left an indelible mark on me.  I wouldn’t trade it for any amount of money—not $billions, not $trillions, not 21m BTC, not a trainload of gold.

Throughout my life, I have always aspired to the impossible.  Rarely have I ever even come close to my goals.

It was not my only rare experience in cypherspace, although it was by far the most unusual.  How can such experiences not affect my general outlook and expectations?

No offense, Jay, but if anyone were hypothetically to offer me $100k or even $10k to cease all discussion with you, I would probably take the money.  Why should I not?  I know that you don’t really care about anyone on the Internet.  We are just chit-chatting and passing by—right?

---

Good discussion.  Too bad this is not much a philosophical venue.

I gotta admit.  I like this part.

 

Tempting me to break Opsec, for sure.


You guys are sick.

That's why empowering is getting invited to the party, and you two are NOT.

Fun.. .

yeah right..


"WE"  do not hope for lower.






Don't you know nuttin?













Yet?



Now this guy Wexlike...

He's a great example of what is "fun."**


**not the dropping babies part.

Explanation

FATF.  (As the start of a long list...)

I agree with Adam Back about this:  Trust in mathematics over law.

We win by creating an impression in which things are working in bitcoin.. yes, the royal "we" or whatever.. doesn't matter to me., and the details do not matter either.,

We do not need to know the details because we win no matter what as long as the blocks come out and on average the blocks are coming out - about every 10 minutes ... every two weeks the difficulty adjusts in order to shoot for such 10 minutes per block on average time target goal too.

Winner winner chicken dinner.


Technically.....   D_W says


Fuck technically!!!

Yeah.. maybe it matters for a miner.. or for someone in a hurry transacting a $1 million transaction.. but most people only need to know that bitcoin workie workie works.. and it continues to work... and workie workie, too

When is the next block?  
Approximately 10 minutes.. give or take..

if the next block ends up being 2 minutes or 20 minutes, and even skewed towards two minutes, I (or is it we?) give few shits, I am still going to answer in the same way..  10 minutes dude (no not that dude).. general dude.

If I were betting on when the next block is going to come. I might give some shits.. but I am not, and I am not going to bet, either.. my only bet is that bitcoin works, continues to work and it has been working for more than 13.5 years.  tick tock.. tick tock tick tock.. bitcoin still works, and next block.. amazing!!!!   when's it coming?  I don't know.. but maybe in 10 minutes-ish.  

I am not setting expectations too high, either when I say.. the next block is coming in more or less about approximately 10 minutes.. and if 10 minutes runs again and again and there still is no block, and the person waiting for the block says to me:  "hey dude (no not that dude) I thought that you said the next block will be in 10 minutes..  when is the next block going to come?"   , I will say that the next block should be here in about 10 minutes.

It's a great answer.. when in doubt, just say 10 minutes.. tick tock necxt  block.. been working for 13.5 years and more and I don't expect it to stop.. that's why I have money in it.. I feel good about that... .. .. more or less 10 minutes comes the next block.. it works, and it is amazing.. you should thinking about getting some in case it catches on...


You seem to be proving my point.  Underpromise and over deliver.. another great bitcoin feature.



and while they are waiting.. we just keep saying that the block should arrive in 10 minutes.  I hpe that you did not bet on this.  Sucks to be you if you bet on it.


Have fun with all that.  I am just going to continue with the party line. whether it is correct or not.. doesn't matter to me, even though it may well matter to a miner or someone who is working (or betting) in regards to the relevance of those kinds of details.


For sure, he frequently gets caught in really dumb answers.. an/or lame descriptions about what bitcoin is including the seemingly forced "what I designed" it to do. blah blah blah.... including the pursuit of copy right and intellectual property matters..


I'm thinking that a good name for it would be a "mining death spiral."

You heard it here first.  

#justsaying


Hey.. either that is not fair, or you were "reading my mind"... by saying to ur lil selfie:  "what would jjg think, if he were faced with such a question?"

 


No.



WOW!!!!


BBBBBbbbbaaaaaammmmmmmbbbbbb!!!!

That's how it works?

No wonder you have tendencies to find "bargains" in so many unique places.  

Who would-a-thunk?

That's a known attack vector and was inevitable. There's no historical justification to assume those in power will give it up willingly without a fight. Luckily it's greatly negated by the concept of jurisdictions, as long as we don't have one world government, and BTC is global. What do you care if North Korea/China/Russia blacklists your BTC? And they'd feel the same about your laws.  Gresham's Law tells us that your "blacklisted" UTXOs will just find their way to another jurisdiction, and their blacklisted UTXOs will come to you, rinse and repeat. As long as we don't have one world hegemony


*Mandatory coinbase user reference

Explanation

1 BTC ≠ 1 BTC.


The destruction of privacy is also an economic issue, bad for Bitcoin.  Bitcoiners who accept this are their own worst enemies.

With tracking inevitably comes UTXO blacklisting, and thus the continued process of turning Bitcoin into an NFT.  1 BTC ≠ 1 BTC.

Oldie-but-goody, Adam Back in 2014:
https://youtu.be/3dAdI3Gzodo?t=47

My comments on another thread, re “coin taint”:

Dr. Back discusses various privacy technologies, from centralized blind signatures to Zerocoin/Zerocash.  Unfortunately, the technological information is only up to date as of 2014.  His explanation of the fungibility issue is the important part here; the only change on that point is that the problem has become worse, much worse.

---

So stated, because some people will only pay attention when they are proverbially hit in the wallet.  Fungibility is one of the most important arguments for privacy.