In the old days I would face temptation to sell during BTC crashes. Now, I am faced with a new type of temptation: Wanting to borrow fiat to buy more BTC.
What a familiar feeling. Have this feeling for the last 10 years at least.
That’s what I said at $35k–$38k. That is why, in addition to BTC-collateralized debt taken for other purposes, I made significant leveraged buys in the range of $35,000 to about $38,800. I felt smug and superior to all of the n00bs who got rekt buying BTC on margin at $67k. By that logic, if there is any time to open such a position, it is in a bear market. Instead of getting FOMO for green candlesticks like a n00b, I got excited at red candlesticks.
Cheap discount bitcoins!When I had already exhausted my resources to buy BTC for cash, I attempted
timing the bottom on leverage.
Welcome to my dollhouse.For months, it felt like a smart bet that the bottom was already in at $32k—
right? Anyway, I felt sufficiently non-stupid as long as I could keep my liquidation price below 200 WMA. (Which I did, far below—before some other things went wrong.
The best-laid plans of mice and men...)
The friend who advised me to cover
later at $35k warned me that unpredictable black-swan events could crash BTC to any arbitrarily low level.
He told me so. When I said,
“What about 200 WMA,” his response was one of patient condescension. He was right. My condescension towards the psychotics who
still cling to the myth of the 200 WMA “cycle bottom” is now impatient, and outright contumelious.
Oh, you mean to borrow against other assets in other asset classes? Like maybe your home, if you own one? I may have lost my BTC, but even I am not dumb enough ever even to
imagine trying
that—not even in the hypothetical—no way, never. Food and shelter come first. You don’t take that for granted, if you have ever lacked for them.
The 2008 global financial meltdown was partly caused by
a housing market bubble. It led to
mass-foreclosures, i.e. liquidations of homes bought long on excessive leverage—including some who were not “subprime”. It was the proximate cause of “The Times 03/Jan/2009”.
Now, in 2022, I have been musing on the possibility that there may be regional, perhaps even some national
housing market bubbles, as capital fleeing inflation has ballooned housing prices. It will be fun when those pop. Well, not fun for those who wind up homeless.
Maybe leverage your stocks to buy BTC? The stock market has been only a casino for most of the past century—ever since (a) the managerial revolution resulted in irresponsible executives, and (b) the market transitioned from a place to buy and hold for income from dividends, to a near-Ponzi-tier market for mere price speculation. Anyone who owns stocks is a degenerate gambler, masquerading as an “investor”. So, have at it!
Or are you actually Michael Saylor? He
does have enough assets to survive a BTC drop all the way to zero. He is probably not feeling very good about his debt-backed BTC purchases. But at least, he will be fine.