Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3317. (Read 26715794 times)

legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1441
I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".

I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.

If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :

- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?

I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step


Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.



...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ?  or seppuku?


Hypothetically of course.  

if 1K, probably BTC is "dead", tether collasped and all other stables too. , all alts - 99.99%. So every single holders would be fully broke at these levels.

But just read my reply, even if we reach 6K's$, i would invested 'only' 33% of my btc profits. So most probably i will put more orders (maybe till 50% instead of 33?)


Hypothetical....


So 1K BTC = BTC ded.... how about 3k? a la Covaids black swan retest?

Hypothetical.... Russia depletes their cruise missiles, and escalates to tactical nukes... sending Europe and NATO n US into a frenzy, markets react, based on speculation of what could come next..... or merely on the "normalisation" of the use of tactical nukes (they are the lower yield nukes, as opposed to strategic)

Markets react..... where does that black swan take BTC price?

orrrrrrrr even worse... tactical nukes deployed by Russia, and met in kind by "entity x" where does that black swan lead BTC price?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr , no, I wont even speculate or ask about strategic nukes, or atomic ....does not bare thinking about...


How about Gina make a yuge move on Taiwan , where does that lead BTC?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about we finally break the "omicron variant" and there is a new variant "Pi"?
and this one is vaccine resistant and does something else new, say, it effects children (remember these are hypotheticals) ..... lockdowns come back with a vengeance,  the worst yet, supply chains totally shit the bed, new "super" vaccine mandates passed in most nations (and do not work) etc.... where does that lead BTC price?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr come October, its a cold winter in Europe, the recession has kicked up several notches, energy prices triple, inflation soars, interest rates increased by several 1% jumps,  and it
still has not dampened inflation....  fuel has tripled, food inflation has gone another 20-30%, economy retracts hard, like never seen before... this whole thing makes earlier lockdowns, and related issues pale in comparison ...   Klaus is right and global anger reaches peak levels, and there is mass civil unrest, martial law in western nations ...

Where does that leave BTC ?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about a combination of ALL OF THE ABOVE  ? the whole shebang, Ukraine, Russia, tactical nukes fly, food, fuel, gas shortages, new variant, deaths, lockdown supermax, supply chain grinds to halt, civil unrest, China makes its move.....

Where does that leave BTC price?


Hypotheticals of course  ......


Whaddya think ?


(I am available for parties and weddings)  


#STOPTROLLING.

covid crash = approximately a double bottom of the previous bear market cycle, so what's the link?

If combinaison of everything, BTC will probably be the least of our worries.

Maybe you are not agree with me, you see probably the bottom in already ? But doesn't smell this according to all the points i mentioned above.


WUT? I AM NOT TROLLING? you have misread my intent entirely

Now back to the discussion.


"covid crash = approximately a double bottom of the previous bear market cycle, so what's the link?"

It is a potential realistic outcome, thats the link.

"If combinaison of everything, BTC will probably be the least of our worries."  ....

Yeah, ermm that is kinda the point I am making!!  and again, it is not like any of that stuff is currently "wildly outrageous to suggest" - just the opposite in fact, it is looking like they are extremely likely POTENTIAL scenarios !!


"Maybe you are not agree with me, you see probably the bottom in already ? But doesn't smell this according to all the points i mentioned above."

Negative, and negative, I am extremely unsure the bottom is 100% in YET. And a lot depends on what happens next over the next 6 months in meat life.

.....


Actually, I was asking you, and others, a genuine question! about these pretty realistic scenarios and where you see the price going!

The basic premise being, what if the situation gets worse, than it was 2020? (3.x bottom) I mean it could go many ways... maybe there is a double bottom, maybe there is a higher low... (due to the fact we have come down from much higher and the floor is raised) OR maybe as the scenario where the situation is even worse plays out, that 3.xK does NOT HOLD.


REMEMBER , these are just hypotheticals.

Also, perhaps, one of these scenarios plays out, or a combination of, or a full house of them plays out (not that outlandish unfortunately) and actually , some of you may be of the view that at some point, that actually, honey badger kicks in and we start to go higher.


The thrust of my post is

1) things could be about to get fugly (and thats the scenarios I am having a thought experiment about) I mean, to what extent is any of these , increasingly likely scenarios "priced in"

2) I wonder how prepared people are, for a deterioration of the situations I pose

3)  Where do people think price would go in one or multiple or all of these scenarios

4) I am curious as to peoples thoughts.


I am not saying all these things will happen! but, then, I am not saying they will not either.. I can easily imagine it, the lot of it.


I can also imagine, a situation where, one by one these issues are all resolved somewhat (well Ukraine/Russia calms down, China does nothing (yet) /new Covid variant does not happen, no new lockdown, inflation steadies, food and fuel prices stabilise, markets like what they see, and between now and October ish, we really are bottomed.... and then off to the races......at least for a while.

Not trolling in the slightest
legendary
Activity: 1474
Merit: 1087
I rather prefer losing +80% of my networth holding btc than losing 10% in fiat due to inflation.

Either I'm genius or I got severely dropped on my head as a baby.
legendary
Activity: 2758
Merit: 13660
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
Sentiment changes escalating quickly when in BTC

Stay strong, stay focused, stay cool …..
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 83
Got another piece at 18.8 this time.

Hoping for lower and ready to do multiple buys.

legendary
Activity: 4354
Merit: 3614
what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?
This is the weirdest bear market so far...

I am having fun!  I really am.


same here. the thrill is back for me. not since i started and went through my 1st crash (~90% drop) have i felt like this.

are we toast? have we made a huge mistake? if we crash way hard and crater it big time will it survive?

and just like my 1st "panic" in the 2011 crash one thing stays the same for me: HODL this pig. cuz moon or hole in the ground im in 100%
sr. member
Activity: 720
Merit: 388
I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".

I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.

If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :

- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?

I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step


Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.



...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ?  or seppuku?


Hypothetically of course.  

if 1K, probably BTC is "dead", tether collasped and all other stables too. , all alts - 99.99%. So every single holders would be fully broke at these levels.

But just read my reply, even if we reach 6K's$, i would invested 'only' 33% of my btc profits. So most probably i will put more orders (maybe till 50% instead of 33?)


Hypothetical....


So 1K BTC = BTC ded.... how about 3k? a la Covaids black swan retest?

Hypothetical.... Russia depletes their cruise missiles, and escalates to tactical nukes... sending Europe and NATO n US into a frenzy, markets react, based on speculation of what could come next..... or merely on the "normalisation" of the use of tactical nukes (they are the lower yield nukes, as opposed to strategic)

Markets react..... where does that black swan take BTC price?

orrrrrrrr even worse... tactical nukes deployed by Russia, and met in kind by "entity x" where does that black swan lead BTC price?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr , no, I wont even speculate or ask about strategic nukes, or atomic ....does not bare thinking about...


How about Gina make a yuge move on Taiwan , where does that lead BTC?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about we finally break the "omicron variant" and there is a new variant "Pi"?
and this one is vaccine resistant and does something else new, say, it effects children (remember these are hypotheticals) ..... lockdowns come back with a vengeance,  the worst yet, supply chains totally shit the bed, new "super" vaccine mandates passed in most nations (and do not work) etc.... where does that lead BTC price?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr come October, its a cold winter in Europe, the recession has kicked up several notches, energy prices triple, inflation soars, interest rates increased by several 1% jumps,  and it
still has not dampened inflation....  fuel has tripled, food inflation has gone another 20-30%, economy retracts hard, like never seen before... this whole thing makes earlier lockdowns, and related issues pale in comparison ...   Klaus is right and global anger reaches peak levels, and there is mass civil unrest, martial law in western nations ...

Where does that leave BTC ?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about a combination of ALL OF THE ABOVE  ? the whole shebang, Ukraine, Russia, tactical nukes fly, food, fuel, gas shortages, new variant, deaths, lockdown supermax, supply chain grinds to halt, civil unrest, China makes its move.....

Where does that leave BTC price?


Hypotheticals of course  ......


Whaddya think ?


(I am available for parties and weddings) 


#STOPTROLLING.

covid crash = approximately a double bottom of the previous bear market cycle, so what's the link?

If combinaison of everything, BTC will probably be the least of our worries.

Maybe you are not agree with me, you see probably the bottom in already ? But doesn't smell this according to all the points i mentioned above.
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 2617
Far, Far, Far Right Thug
What a load of shit this price action, honestly.

I bEtTeR cAsH oUt iN fIaT bEcAuSe InFlAtIoN iS oNlY 20%...


 Roll Eyes
hero member
Activity: 968
Merit: 624
Still a manic miner
... I expect more tears and pain for the weak hands to come...

Weak handers who sold are feeling relief now, with all this bearish debacle.

The tears and pain are for us who didnt sell a sat..
legendary
Activity: 1612
Merit: 1608
精神分析的爸
* death_wish prepares to beat Buddy with a horsewhip.

never work.  hes an ai; his electrons will just laugh at you. an electric cattle prod other the other hand..


buddy we dont want to see you hurt. stop resisting. go UP

* psycodad waves 3 MS-DOS 6.1 and 7 Windows 3.1 3.5" disks in front of CB, telling him:

Do your job now, or you'll get this "upgrade".


Though it probably wouldn't hurt in the short term as I suspect we don't need him to work with numbers >65536 for quite some time  Tongue
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1441
I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".

I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.

If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :

- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?

I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step


Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.



...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ?  or seppuku?


Hypothetically of course.  

if 1K, probably BTC is "dead", tether collasped and all other stables too. , all alts - 99.99%. So every single holders would be fully broke at these levels.

But just read my reply, even if we reach 6K's$, i would invested 'only' 33% of my btc profits. So most probably i will put more orders (maybe till 50% instead of 33?)


Hypothetical....


So 1K BTC = BTC ded.... how about 3k? a la Covaids black swan retest?

Hypothetical.... Russia depletes their cruise missiles, and escalates to tactical nukes... sending Europe and NATO n US into a frenzy, markets react, based on speculation of what could come next..... or merely on the "normalisation" of the use of tactical nukes (they are the lower yield nukes, as opposed to strategic)

Markets react..... where does that black swan take BTC price?

orrrrrrrr even worse... tactical nukes deployed by Russia, and met in kind by "entity x" where does that black swan lead BTC price?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr , no, I wont even speculate or ask about strategic nukes, or atomic ....does not bare thinking about...


How about Gina make a yuge move on Taiwan , where does that lead BTC?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about we finally break the "omicron variant" and there is a new variant "Pi"?
and this one is vaccine resistant and does something else new, say, it effects children (remember these are hypotheticals) ..... lockdowns come back with a vengeance,  the worst yet, supply chains totally shit the bed, new "super" vaccine mandates passed in most nations (and do not work) etc.... where does that lead BTC price?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr come October, its a cold winter in Europe, the recession has kicked up several notches, energy prices triple, inflation soars, interest rates increased by several 1% jumps,  and it
still has not dampened inflation....  fuel has tripled, food inflation has gone another 20-30%, economy retracts hard, like never seen before... this whole thing makes earlier lockdowns, and related issues pale in comparison ...   Klaus is right and global anger reaches peak levels, and there is mass civil unrest, martial law in western nations ...

Where does that leave BTC ?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about a combination of ALL OF THE ABOVE  ? the whole shebang, Ukraine, Russia, tactical nukes fly, food, fuel, gas shortages, new variant, deaths, lockdown supermax, supply chain grinds to halt, civil unrest, China makes its move.....

Where does that leave BTC price?


Hypotheticals of course  ......


Whaddya think ?


(I am available for parties and weddings) 
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
member
Activity: 162
Merit: 32
If Bitcoin were the only Cryptocurrency:

1 BTC would have a price of $158,448.86 at a $3 Trillion Total Crypto Market cap.

$44,042.79 per BTC at the current Total Crypto Market cap of $840 billion.

Interesting, isn't it?


1 BTC = 1 BTC
legendary
Activity: 1891
Merit: 3096
All good things to those who wait
DB] FTX walked away from a deal with Celsius after seeing state of its finances: The Block
https://twitter.com/tier10k/status/1542495071685206022?t=OQcH3jAlO4mt6HQVbAl2pA&s=07&fbclid=IwAR0hFacO38O_d1FlcE8TmpaXabGzSjxYRK5Y9T4d9zSLO-PHhVmROhcVGsk

This bear market looks infinite. Every day some company with 15K+ BTCitcoins gets liquidated and obviously all these BTCitcoins getting dumped on the spot market. BlockFi, 3AC, etc. ponzis were hoping SEC will approve Greyscale ETF so that these 640K BTCitcoins to be dumped at 20K instead of 13K. Thanks to the bankers' sock puppet Gary Gensler, this didn't happen. When will this end and what will be the price then? What if this continues another 6 months, 1 year, or even 3 years? This will be serious. We've never had so severe bear market for 8 straight months. May be it will end soon, may be not. I expect more tears and pain for the weak hands to come. On the other hand, this may be the last chance for the strong hands with a regular income to buy several whole coins in the next few years. As it is said in Psalm 126:5 "They that sow in tears shall reap in joy." This is too important chance to be ignored. A chance to have a new house and to retire early. I missed it in the last bull run, but now I have a chance to recover 70-100% of my previous position and redo it properly above 100K.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1441
I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".

I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.

If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :

- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?

I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step


Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.



...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ?  or seppuku?


Hypothetically of course. 

if 1K, probably BTC is "dead", tether collasped and all other stables too. , all alts - 99.99%. So every single holders would be fully broke at these levels.

But just read my reply, even if we reach 6K's$, i would invested 'only' 33% of my btc profits. So most probably i will put more orders (maybe till 50% instead of 33?)

33 is an important number.


(yeah and 42 D__W)
sr. member
Activity: 720
Merit: 388
I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".

I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.

If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :

- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?

I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step


Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.



...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ?  or seppuku?


Hypothetically of course. 

if 1K, probably BTC is "dead", tether collasped and all other stables too. , all alts - 99.99%. So every single holders would be fully broke at these levels.

But just read my reply, even if we reach 6K's$, i would invested 'only' 33% of my btc profits. So most probably i will put more orders (maybe till 50% instead of 33?)
hero member
Activity: 1876
Merit: 612
Plant 1xTree for each Satoshi earned!
Plus we keep dipping into weekends which never feels very "yay".
Another weekend another slide.



YAAAAAY!


I'm so glad that at least some of you are cheering about this. The faster we get to $15K levels we end this faster. I'l be prepared to fill some more of my stashes!   Cool   Cool

WE GET A 30% discount from the 70% Discount !!! That is a 210% VALUE !!! YOU LOSE MONEY IF YOU DON't BUY AT $16K at least.   Roll Eyes   Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1441
I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".

I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.

If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :

- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?

I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step


Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.



...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ?  or seppuku?


Hypothetically of course. 
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 1891
bitcoin retard
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1441
If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop!  Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down".  No too clunky.  Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it?

I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it.

How have we never thought of this before?


...death spiral ?

That's great!!! Have you checked for the .com .org and .net?

Or wait... do you mean that dude that posts those long long things here recently?


heh heh, nawh, inspired by some LUNAtics I saw on twitter moaning about how they lost a few pennies at the hands of some Korean deewd


(actually, they did it to themselves)
member
Activity: 171
Merit: 32
The Bank of International Settlements proposed today that banks be allowed to hold 1% of reserves in bitcoin
That's $1.8 trillion.

Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1542484760907419649
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