I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".
I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.
If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :
- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?
I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).
I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :
- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step
Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.
...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ? or seppuku?
Hypothetically of course.
if 1K, probably BTC is "dead", tether collasped and all other stables too. , all alts - 99.99%. So every single holders would be fully broke at these levels.
But just read my reply, even if we reach 6K's$, i would invested 'only' 33% of my btc profits. So most probably i will put more orders (maybe till 50% instead of 33?)
Hypothetical....
So 1K BTC = BTC ded.... how about 3k? a la Covaids black swan retest?
Hypothetical.... Russia depletes their cruise missiles, and escalates to tactical nukes... sending Europe and NATO n US into a frenzy, markets react, based on speculation of what could come next..... or merely on the "normalisation" of the use of tactical nukes (they are the lower yield nukes, as opposed to strategic)
Markets react..... where does that black swan take BTC price?
orrrrrrrr even worse... tactical nukes deployed by Russia, and met in kind by "entity x" where does that black swan lead BTC price?
Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr , no, I wont even speculate or ask about strategic nukes, or atomic ....does not bare thinking about...
How about Gina make a yuge move on Taiwan , where does that lead BTC?
Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about we finally break the "omicron variant" and there is a new variant "Pi"?
and this one is vaccine resistant and does something else new, say, it effects children (remember these are hypotheticals) ..... lockdowns come back with a vengeance, the worst yet, supply chains totally shit the bed, new "super" vaccine mandates passed in most nations (and do not work) etc.... where does that lead BTC price?
Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr come October, its a cold winter in Europe, the recession has kicked up several notches, energy prices triple, inflation soars, interest rates increased by several 1% jumps, and it
still has not dampened inflation.... fuel has tripled, food inflation has gone another 20-30%, economy retracts hard, like never seen before... this whole thing makes earlier lockdowns, and related issues pale in comparison ... Klaus is right and global anger reaches peak levels, and there is mass civil unrest, martial law in western nations ...
Where does that leave BTC ?
Orrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about a combination of ALL OF THE ABOVE ? the whole shebang, Ukraine, Russia, tactical nukes fly, food, fuel, gas shortages, new variant, deaths, lockdown supermax, supply chain grinds to halt, civil unrest, China makes its move.....
Where does that leave BTC price?
Hypotheticals of course ......
Whaddya think ?
(I am available for parties and weddings)
#STOPTROLLING.
covid crash = approximately a double bottom of the previous bear market cycle, so what's the link?
If combinaison of everything, BTC will probably be the least of our worries.
Maybe you are not agree with me, you see probably the bottom in already ? But doesn't smell this according to all the points i mentioned above.
WUT? I AM NOT TROLLING? you have misread my intent entirely
Now back to the discussion.
"covid crash = approximately a double bottom of the previous bear market cycle, so what's the link?"It is a potential realistic outcome, thats the link.
"If combinaison of everything, BTC will probably be the least of our worries." ....Yeah, ermm that is kinda the point I am making!! and again, it is not like any of that stuff is currently "wildly outrageous to suggest" - just the opposite in fact, it is looking like they are extremely likely POTENTIAL scenarios !!
"Maybe you are not agree with me, you see probably the bottom in already ? But doesn't smell this according to all the points i mentioned above."Negative, and negative, I am extremely unsure the bottom is 100% in YET. And a lot depends on what happens next over the next 6 months in meat life.
.....
Actually, I was asking you, and others, a genuine question! about these pretty realistic scenarios and where you see the price going!
The basic premise being, what if the situation gets worse, than it was 2020? (3.x bottom) I mean it could go many ways... maybe there is a double bottom, maybe there is a higher low... (due to the fact we have come down from much higher and the floor is raised) OR maybe as the scenario where the situation is even worse plays out, that 3.xK does NOT HOLD.
REMEMBER , these are just hypotheticals.
Also, perhaps, one of these scenarios plays out, or a combination of, or a full house of them plays out (not that outlandish unfortunately) and actually , some of you may be of the view that at some point, that actually, honey badger kicks in and we start to go higher.
The thrust of my post is
1) things could be about to get fugly (and thats the scenarios I am having a thought experiment about) I mean, to what extent is any of these , increasingly likely scenarios "priced in"
2) I wonder how prepared people are, for a deterioration of the situations I pose
3) Where do people think price would go in one or multiple or all of these scenarios
4) I am curious as to peoples thoughts.
I am not saying all these things will happen! but, then, I am not saying they will not either.. I can easily imagine it, the lot of it.
I can also imagine, a situation where, one by one these issues are all resolved somewhat (well Ukraine/Russia calms down, China does nothing (yet) /new Covid variant does not happen, no new lockdown, inflation steadies, food and fuel prices stabilise, markets like what they see, and between now and October ish, we really are bottomed.... and then off to the races......at least for a while.
Not trolling in the slightest