Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3351. (Read 26715118 times)

Soooo...  >25 hours later, what “consequences” does Buddy get?

hmm nice another failed fund

Explanation

Apparently, Voyager loaned 15K btc (+350mil USDC) to 3ac.
Now they are asking for the loan back by June 27.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-platform-voyager-digital-shares-plunge-60-after-revealing-665-million-exposure-to-embattled-hedge-fund-considers-issuing-default-notice-11655911126

When I first came to this thread with an unfixable problem, I explicitly sought your advice—in addition to trying to warn newbies “don’t wind up like this”, and frankly also just looking to vent.

I greatly appreciate the time and effort that you spent trying to help me find an impossible exit from a trap that was already closed.

Beyond that—I have told you that I think your investment strategies are mostly pretty good for most people, in most circumstances.  As I’ve said, I have cribbed from the JayJuanGee book to advise nocoiners how to get into Bitcoin:  Your approach to portfolio allocation, risk tolerance assessment, etc. is basically how financial advisors usually guide their clients.  DCA, buying the dips, etc. is a reasonable way to avoid gambling on timing the market.  Quite apart from any of your price predictions (to which I give less credence), the guidance that you give to most people should work in usual circumstances.  But I have also said somewhere, it doesn’t work for me.  My circumstances are not usual.  For that reason, I have not requested your advice on how to rebuild my holding.

I don’t want to discuss private specifics.

I assure you that if I had any positive fiat cashflow usable for buying BTC that was independent of now-nonexistent assets that I futilely sacrificed trying to save my BTC, I would now be stacking every sat I could.  Bitcoin is now on deep discount sale.  Whether or not the bottom is yet in, I do not want to miss the Bitcoin discount sale—especially not when I just lost almost all my bitcoins!  However, I cooked my own goose, these past few months—more than you know, worse than you realize.  The details are private, and I have already revealed far too much financial information about myself.

I have sought advice privately, from people who are competent to give such advice.  The objective, cut-and-dry answer is that if BTC doesn’t remain at its current price levels for at least a little while, then I will be unavoidably screwed.  Better hurry up and work on some new cashflow!

[Edited to add extra warning for newbies:  My situation is overall worse than mindrust’s was, after he threw away his bitcoins.  He sold the bottom, and Bitcoin immediately rose after he dumped; but he sold for cash, so he had cash in hand.  He could have immediately re-bought something.  He didn’t; that was his damnfool choice.  In my case, Bitcoin went down after I lost my coins—and it is still below (on average, very far below) the price at which I lost them.  However, my coins were sold by a robot to repay debt—to repay debt, and to pay liquidation penalties.  From those sales, I am left with nothing!  I am watching helplessly, in continuing torment, with no way to re-buy my lost coins unless/until I earn myself some new funds for purchase.  This is what margin does to you.]

I do have a strategy to rebuild my BTC.  It is not a very good strategy, but it is the best that I can do in the circumstances.  I should spend less time on this forum, and more time improving those circumstances.


I don’t want to, but I do so if really necessary.

Whether by accidental misunderstanding or by intent, many of your recent posts have misinterpreted or mischaracterized my situation in a way that puts me in a bad light.  That is unavoidably personal to me, even if I wish it were otherwise.


Just like you are free to think whatever you want, as long as you don’t go around smearing me based on wild fantasies as some do—I am free to decline discussion with anyone who thinks that I would fabricate such a thing.

---

I see no reason to continue back-and-forth about how I should or can or can’t rebuild my holding—a subject about which, I repeat, I have not and cannot request useful advice on a public forum.  I just need to work on it.

At the bottom line, I will repeat here what I recently told someone who reached out to me via PM with concerns and well-wishes:

In the long term, I am confident that I will recuperate financially.  This is a worse as a spiritual blow than anything else.

Explanation

Explanation

Imagine that.






You go girl.


Are we breaking up?


If that is your interpretation, then "it appears that we have a failure to communicate" here - just like in this little clip (5 second version).. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYe8cGy9TeI

Here's the 50 second version.. funny I had never seen that.. but I had heard the quot several times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=452XjnaHr1A


Another aspect is that some of your specifics do not matter that much to me. in terms of responding to a variety of circumstances in which someone may well have to make choices about his/her allocations going forward and the extent to which more building needs to be accomplished.

I suppose in some sense, I don't want to get into specifics because we are in a public thread.. but surely sometimes some of the specifics can make a difference.. and anyone can take my suggestions or feedback or responses to issues however they like.. or ignore my comments too. if that seems the best way in which they might incorporate my ideas.

For example, if someone tells me that they have all of their various individual circumstances accounted for including but not limited to their expenses.. and their emergency fund, so in that regard, they come to the conclusion that they have $1,200 in cash and 0.05 BTC and they have $400 extra cashflow per month that can be invested into BTC, then at least I have something to work with when I suggest a possible way forward, but if such person is leaving out some facts, then I either have to create a hypothetical or describe some of the basic considerations.. ..

Do you believe that I should give very many shits if you are fighting with me about details or that I am being too patronizing or my supposed failure/refusal to account for your sensitive state of affairs?  There is ONLY so much therapy or sympathy that you should expect in a thread like this.. when a lot of us (including yours truly) are attempting to work with what we got, and do you think we want to get into some of those persona considerations that you have.. and if the numbers are changed, or your conclusion about what constitutes over investment is different, then you gotta work out some of that shit for yourself, and if you are not happy with some of my numbers or my conclusions or my framing of what are the issues that I believe to be important to address, then you should be adjusting them to yourself.. and your actual circumstances.


Stop taking things personally.


nothing wrong with that, but if we are considering BTC investment strategies and things like (which seems to be an area frequently batted around in this thread) .. especially dollars/BTC since that is our OP topic. ...then sometimes there are ideas about DCA, buying on dip and lump sum investing.. and there also may be ideas of portfolio management and liquidation..

So you can battle against those topics and say that you only do x, y or z, but people have differing strategies, and I have various ways in which I talk about those kinds of topics too.. so if you make comments that do not make sense to me inin light of my own ways of thinking about the matters, then I may well make comments, since this is a public thread.  Seems better to not get emotional or to get attached to your personal examples when we are getting into differences of opinion..  

I  doubt that you are going to get much more leeway merely because you are suggesting personal circumstancers or being in love with king daddy or whatever.

Do you believe that we are going to get very far because you proclaim that your strategies show that you love king daddy more than I do, to the extent that is really relevant?  

I feel that I am getting into repetitious territory.


That is b called koreck

three things.

right.

By golly, I think she's got it.



6 second video clip here


Perhaps?

Even though you seem to consider there to be some kind of an ongoing personal.. I don't see why you seem to want to engage in such kinds of battles when they do not really seem to be necessary..

It seems to me that if you bring up issues in this thread, then those issues become fair game, and we might not agree on the way to frame the matter.

I doubt anyone, including yours truly, is trying to be a big meanie to you... I suppose it depends on if you feel like you need to win certain battles.. which one are we going to do next?

Explanation

Gachapin, my TA predicts that your first post on or after 2022-06-29 08:06:40 UTC will downgrade your account to Sr. Member.

I think that WO usually throws a party upon such events, but it is not in my bailiwick.

Your capitulation shows that the no-JS bottom is in.

Disabling Javascript since Netscape Navigator, watching the Web become useless without Javacript in about the past 10–12 years—there must be a bottom somewhere!  Where do I buy stonk in NoScript?

---

Srsly, much though I oft criticize this forum, I am glad that it is one of the only non-negligible discussion platforms that retains all basic read/write functionality without Javascript.  And I know that I am not the only one.  When this issue gets raised in Meta, etc., Legendaries condemn Javascript while anon cypherpunks with throwaway accounts come out of the woodwork to opine.  Well, after all, it is Satoshi’s forum.

Yeah it sucks, I capitulated.

The “show” button requires Javascript.  Disabled here.  My forum-usage security policy inadvertently makes my ignorelist ultra-hardcore.

WTF am I doing with web3?  I’ll tell you what.  Miserably running web3 dapps in ten layers of sandboxing, and then figuring out how to access the same things programmatically via node.js in only five layers of sandboxing.  This is a problem that needs to be solved.

Explanation

This forum is bigger than WO.  And it hosts discussion other than price speculation.

mindrust generally represented himself as if he were an ideologically motivated Bitcoiner.  As if he embraced Bitcoin for noble principles.  He talked the talk—for years, he talked the talk!  Some of us were shocked when he didn’t walk the walk.

I know of several different forum members who were then very active outside WO, who despised mindrust for mindrusting, and who gave him hell about it elsewhere.

I know of at least one forum member who had never before posted in WO—never even set foot in here—who suddenly showed up in WO after mindrust mindrusted.

I know of people outside WO who reacted first out of shock—with a deep sympathy for mindrust—then later, out of disgust that far from coming to his senses, mindrust systematically reneged on much of his own prior preaching.

And I know that outside of WO, mindrust himself showed a tendency to turn on people the same way he had turned on Bitcoin.  It was shocking at the time.  In hindsight, it is unsurprising.


For mere investors who are only in it for the money:  You are obviously under no obligation to risk or sacrifice for my principles.  If you practice buy-and-hold purely for risk-management reasons, then strategize accordingly about how to handle crashes.  If you’re a trader and Bitcoin crashes, you stop-loss.  No problem.  Just try to do a better job of it than mindrust, whose panic-sell was pure foot-shooting—not a savvy trader’s stop-loss.

And just remember that the value of your investment has ultimately grown from a vanguard of zealots:  The idealists, the activists, the hard core of Bitcoiners who sincerely believe that “1 BTC = 1 BTC” motto, “Be Your Own Bank”, “Not Your Keys”, and so forth.  The ones who want for Bitcoin to change the world, to make the world a better place.  Bitcoin wouldn’t even exist without such people!  Be grateful that the product of their noble idealism has given you the opportunity to take profits in the central bank shitcoins that you thoughtlessly fetishize.

At least you have the honesty of being candid about what you really want from Bitcoin.  I sincerely wish for you to enjoy a tasty profit unless you short Bitcoin on the spot market, in which case you should burn in hell; short the perp if you want to short BTC!.

mindrust did not have that honesty.

After telling people who don't believe in BTC TA that they are stupid, and after filling the WO with childish posts how you and your skills deserve recognition  ...next, you know how much the "WO can handle" and who of the participants should be excluded ?

Boy... you are really good at making yourself look like a presumptuous little brat.

Frankly, how long have you been reading the WO that you are now calling for the exclusions of others - who are probably OG's to you?
3 years 4 years?  

How about using the ignore button and stfu yourself?

(sorry for the harsh words but it seems you're not the guy that is getting a message via discreet hints...)

Be extension you will find as your time grows shorter your list grows longer and its much easier to hit the show button to see if the quality of those you ignored improved over time.

Generally you will find they end up being banned anyway and the time you have left on this earth was not wasted on them.

Explanation

There is quite a bit of variety of ways in which bitcoin HODLers/accumulators arrive at their "overexposed" assessment.  I have beaten this to death in a variety of ways, but it remains a topic that comes up so frequently because of there being so many ways in which folks come into bitcoin and then fact BTC's volatility can end up causing different assessments in regards to whether the overexposure (or over accumulation) came from investing dollar value or did it come from the BTC price appreciating and a failure/refusal to cash out while profits were higher.

For sure, we have to attempt to figure out "overexposure" from the financial and psychological position of the HODLer/accumulator, so in some senses there are going to be variables that are difficult to figure out, unless the HODLer/accumulator discloses those kinds of specifics to us.. and for sure if we happen to be the at-issue HODLer/accumulator, then we should be in the best position to figure out our own specifics in regards to both finances and psychology.. but we know that the reality of the matter is that sometimes it can be difficult for normies to really grapple with getting accurate assessments of either of their finances or their psychology, even though that information should be within their grasp to accomplish.

Mindrust did help us out quite a bit by being a decently longer-term forum member (and WO participant up until March 2020), and he seemed to have been pretty honest and specific about his finances and his psychology in the couple of years preceding his March 2020 panic... and yeah, he had showed quite a few signs of getting close to panicking prior to 2020.. which contributed to part of the unbelievable revelation when he did end up panicking in March 2020.

But still, even though he disclosed quite a few of his specifics, there are always going to be ways in which some of us (including him) are holding back some of the personal details.. it is not easy to disclose very many personal details, and maybe it is not even advisable, even though some members do seem to voluntarily choose to share quite a few of their specifics from time to time.I would imagine that mindrust regrets telling us so much, and that seems to be part of the reason that he refuses to come back to this thread.. and that's too bad.. and he also did get involved in some shitcoins too.. which may also make it difficult to come back here in his current avatar.. so would be a good reason to create an alternate identity if wanting to still participate in this thread but without that historical baggage.  

It is hard to blame him for not wanting to come back..  It seems like almost an impossibility..

never say never around here, though.

I am thinking that from what we may well know about mindrust specifically is that in the 2017 price run, he got caught up in a lot of shitcoins, so he made a shitton of mistakes, and came away from that whole experience with hardly any bitcoins (and regretful too), so during the mid-to-late 2018 to early 2020 period, he was putting quite a bit of financial and psychological efforts into building up his BTC portfolio and trying to focus on BTC accumulation.. part of the problem, may have been that he was also trying to make up for his mistakes, even though that does not tend to be a good strategy and many of us know that, even while we are engaged in such beheviors.. we are hoping that we will end up being successful. and then getting out of that psychoogical/financial trap of feeling like we have to make up for past mistakes.

So essentially mindrust's overaccumulation into BTC between late 2018 and early 2020 came through overinvesting while the BTC price was going up and down and sideways, so then by the time we got that big correction in March 2020, there was a kind of psychological and financial build up (and presumption) that the BTC price would not go below certain price points anymore (perhaps $5.5k?), so when the BTC price went shooting below the price floor, there was hardly any ability to hang on..

To the extent that we can believe some of the details about he extent of the investment of something like 40% or more (when he should have been 10% - and maybe 20% at most).. then it even though it seems to not make sense for him to sell (and preserve himself on the way down) or not not buy back (when there was a temporary blip back down) .. but there seems to be some rationale to a lot of his thinking, too.  Part of the reason that we do not have more examples of mindrust seems to be that guys do not say anything.. remember rosewater foundation/blindmayor.. He likely did something similar, but we have a lot of those kinds of folks over the years, but most of them do not post about it.. or at least not that many details.. We know some of them too but it would not be fair to mention them or speculate about what their details might have been.. because they really have not publicly disclosed even close to that much information.. so we usually just have snip-its of information that provide decently strong inferences about their having had mindrusted.

I guess my punchline point is that there is a difference between overinvesting that comes through smaller amounts of value put into bitcoin such as overinvesting by going from 10% to 20%.. so that level of overinesting may well be more bearable when the seemingly inevitable shitty times come and so some level of modest overinvesting seems somewhat reasonable.. as compared to the level of over investing that mindrust had done.. which was north of 40%.. which was 3x additional value than what he should have been putting into bitcoin.  He knew that too.. but he could not stop himself.  

For me it is a different story to feel overinvested into BTC because the BTC price appreciated and the HODLer/accumulator failed/refused to cash out any on the way up.  For me the person who gets to an over accumulation status because of failure/refusal to cash out any BTC is in quite a bit of a less bad situation as compared to someone who is over investing, measures that overinvesting by the value that was put in, and never getting into profits.. Of course there are variations of each, and it could even be the fact that we are not even sure which one we might be because the facts are murky.. and admittedly there can be various murky zones and various ways to measure where we are at and how much new value did we put in as compared with whether the BTC price value has gone up or down.  I don't even proclaim to know my own situation, but it seems to be a lot easier when in profits.. but just having difficulties figuring out how much profits as compared with measuring various forms of not being in profits.. and realizing that how much you put into BTCis 2x, 3x, 4x or more than what you can afford to lose .. Even though mindrust may have still been in a bit of a murky area of profits or not, he did not achieve any kind of overinvestment that came from BTC price appreciation, thus he seemed to have been selling at break even prices more or less.

Maybe some day, he will clarify some of these facts because I know that even with me, sometimes I will make an assessment in one time frame that ends up being different from an assessment that i make at later dates. Of course, there could be some whitewashing and spin that happens depending on on when the assessment is made and if there might be new perspectives about how to frame the issues - without  necessarily going into fantasy (make shit up) accounting.  

For example, maybe in the earlier time, the HODLer/accumulator was calculating his/her BTC exposure based on measurements of adding the value of all equities, cash and BTC in order to arrive at the value of his/her quasi-liquid investment portfolio, but was purposefully not including shitcoins as part of that package, and was also choosing to completely exclude the value of his/her residential property.  

One or two years later, the HODLer/accumulator decided to add up the value of all of the shitcoins that s/he owned and also to assess the fair (quasi-liquid) value of his/her house at 70% of the then market valuem and to add those values to the value of the quasi-liquid investment portfolio.  Upon making those changes to his/her overall quasi-liquid investment portfolio, the overall size of the total quasi-liquid investment portfolio went up, so therefore the changes caused his/her exposure to bitcoin to be considered as 30% rather than 40%, and therefore the explanation and the rethinking of what happened might be characterized differently based on various reassessments..

It would be up to the HODLer/accumulator to figure out if his/her reframing of the whole matter helps him/her to understand his/her financial/psychological situation better in order to better learn from it, or if the reframing of the whole matter could be a way to present the facts and story in a way that are to create a better depiction of reality or just to describe a situation that allows some abilities to save face in regards to helping to not look so bad.. Both of the reasons could be justifiable reasons to reframe the accounting, and if a person knows shy s/he is reframing then the reframing can be empowering rather than merely a way to escape into fantasyland.      


For sure, leveraging can increase the exposure too, and sometimes we might lose track of how much overexposed that we might be, including if we had leveraged against various assets that we own.. rather than just playing straight longs..

Surely, sometimes we hope that some of these BIGGER players will never get their coins back, and we find out that sometimes when they do their massive dumpings, they are not even playing with their own coins.  So if they end up fucking up, then their customers/clients may well end up paying for the games or the bad situations that some of those custodians get themselves into.


For sure, some of the folks playing with leverage are way more sophisticated than others.  


Wow.. 2-3 years to get out of this mess?  I hope it does not take that long.


Not selling at a loss seems to be a very good practice, highly recommended.

His posts contain useful substance, that is, if you have the attention span to read through it.

I do try my best but it's too hot and Bitcoin is falling.


Actually I think we may have laughed at him too much. Literally made a meme out of the man. Hopefully not the reason he left. :/