Forgive me for my pathetic attempts to talk the price down. I am better at the opposite:
"Study the price behaviour for 7/2010-6/2011 if you want to have a million dollars."
Well you are right on that point, 30% is unsustainable. However bitcoin has a habit of peaking and crashing a bit higher then it peaked/crashed before. I think the market is too young to really come away with any more knowledge about the market then your intuition can give you. Even the way the gox engine works this week is different from two weeks ago- and that stuff makes a big difference. The market isn't mature enough to know whats happening. Today it's worth a billion, but what will long term stability show it's worth? 100 billion? 500 billion?