Explanation
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3372. (Read 26714840 times)
June 19, 2022, 09:04:54 AM
June 19, 2022, 09:00:42 AM
Quick review from some polls I stumbled across from @bitcoin. Not a fan of the twitter handle, but thought these were interesting to reflect market sentiment over past few days...
To summarise, ~60% think Bitcoin will close June below $20K. Only ~40% think BTC will close above $20K this month. 25% think price will close below $15K!
As of $20K prices, over 60% think Bitcoin hasn't yet reached max industry pain.
Again, the majority think Bitcoin will reach $15K before $25K in next three months...
The reason I reference this, is because most Bitcoiners and traders get it wrong. Most thought $30K wouldn't break, but as soon as it did, those people were all expecting ~$15K prcies.
Assuming most voting in this poll get it wrong (again); Bitcoin closes June above $20K, the industry has hit max pain already and we'll see $25K before $15K
At present, based on current price action, I think this is fairly realistic. My personal benchmarks for this type of reversal would be the following:
1. Closing today above $20K (roughly 10% below the 200WMA which wouldn't be a disaster). Ideally above $21K consolidation, but can't be too hopeful.
2. Closing next week above the 200WMA (which will be $22.4K next week). Reclaiming $20K would likely achieve this I think, especially $21K.
3. Then trading towards $25K the beginning of next week, before a correction, in order to close June comfortably above $20K.
Going to try and present some short and longer-term TA to explain this as there are some serious volume gaps both to the upside and to the downside at present.
To summarise, ~60% think Bitcoin will close June below $20K. Only ~40% think BTC will close above $20K this month. 25% think price will close below $15K!
As of $20K prices, over 60% think Bitcoin hasn't yet reached max industry pain.
Again, the majority think Bitcoin will reach $15K before $25K in next three months...
The reason I reference this, is because most Bitcoiners and traders get it wrong. Most thought $30K wouldn't break, but as soon as it did, those people were all expecting ~$15K prcies.
Assuming most voting in this poll get it wrong (again); Bitcoin closes June above $20K, the industry has hit max pain already and we'll see $25K before $15K
At present, based on current price action, I think this is fairly realistic. My personal benchmarks for this type of reversal would be the following:
1. Closing today above $20K (roughly 10% below the 200WMA which wouldn't be a disaster). Ideally above $21K consolidation, but can't be too hopeful.
2. Closing next week above the 200WMA (which will be $22.4K next week). Reclaiming $20K would likely achieve this I think, especially $21K.
3. Then trading towards $25K the beginning of next week, before a correction, in order to close June comfortably above $20K.
Going to try and present some short and longer-term TA to explain this as there are some serious volume gaps both to the upside and to the downside at present.
I don't know how realistic that is but it would be nice. Waiting for the TA.
June 19, 2022, 08:46:58 AM
Quick review from some polls I stumbled across from @bitcoin. Not a fan of the twitter handle, but thought these were interesting to reflect market sentiment over past few days...
To summarise, ~60% think Bitcoin will close June below $20K. Only ~40% think BTC will close above $20K this month. 25% think price will close below $15K!
As of $20K prices, over 60% think Bitcoin hasn't yet reached max industry pain.
Again, the majority think Bitcoin will reach $15K before $25K in next three months...
The reason I reference this, is because most Bitcoiners and traders get it wrong. Most thought $30K wouldn't break, but as soon as it did, those people were all expecting ~$15K prcies.
Assuming most voting in this poll get it wrong (again); Bitcoin closes June above $20K, the industry has hit max pain already and we'll see $25K before $15K
At present, based on current price action, I think this is fairly realistic. My personal benchmarks for this type of reversal would be the following:
1. Closing today above $20K (roughly 10% below the 200WMA which wouldn't be a disaster). Ideally above $21K consolidation, but can't be too hopeful.
2. Closing next week above the 200WMA (which will be $22.4K next week). Reclaiming $20K would likely achieve this I think, especially $21K.
3. Then trading towards $25K the beginning of next week, before a correction, in order to close June comfortably above $20K.
Going to try and present some short and longer-term TA to explain this as there are some serious volume gaps both to the upside and to the downside at present.
To summarise, ~60% think Bitcoin will close June below $20K. Only ~40% think BTC will close above $20K this month. 25% think price will close below $15K!
As of $20K prices, over 60% think Bitcoin hasn't yet reached max industry pain.
Again, the majority think Bitcoin will reach $15K before $25K in next three months...
The reason I reference this, is because most Bitcoiners and traders get it wrong. Most thought $30K wouldn't break, but as soon as it did, those people were all expecting ~$15K prcies.
Assuming most voting in this poll get it wrong (again); Bitcoin closes June above $20K, the industry has hit max pain already and we'll see $25K before $15K
At present, based on current price action, I think this is fairly realistic. My personal benchmarks for this type of reversal would be the following:
1. Closing today above $20K (roughly 10% below the 200WMA which wouldn't be a disaster). Ideally above $21K consolidation, but can't be too hopeful.
2. Closing next week above the 200WMA (which will be $22.4K next week). Reclaiming $20K would likely achieve this I think, especially $21K.
3. Then trading towards $25K the beginning of next week, before a correction, in order to close June comfortably above $20K.
Going to try and present some short and longer-term TA to explain this as there are some serious volume gaps both to the upside and to the downside at present.
June 19, 2022, 08:01:20 AM
June 19, 2022, 07:54:00 AM
I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.
If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.
My only satisfaction would be that if these whales, after dropping the price so much, cause the exchange they are using to fail and they lose all their coins.
If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.
My only satisfaction would be that if these whales, after dropping the price so much, cause the exchange they are using to fail and they lose all their coins.
reminds me of this ol' classic:
Don't Buy Bitcoin. It's Going To Crash!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg
June 19, 2022, 07:49:23 AM
The two types of people who just want to speak blah blah about it but bitcoin don't give a fuck to them and for them when it's rising it's bubble and when it dips we see obituaries for it
Stay strong bitcoiners and if you want then become fucking legend as mentioned by @El duderino_ above by investing at these discounted rates.
Stay strong bitcoiners and if you want then become fucking legend as mentioned by @El duderino_ above by investing at these discounted rates.
June 19, 2022, 07:38:00 AM
Looking at the history of the mempool. There is a declining size of transaction spikes throughout this dump from 30k. My hope is that this might mean the supply of people willing to sell are becoming exhausted and only true hodlers remain.
Clutching at straws I know.
Clutching at straws I know.
At some point all the weak handed cucks will be gone. The market will be cleansed of undeserved, weaklings & a bottom will be formed allowing us to start the next bull market. A bottom will form, sentiment will change. After winter always comes Spring. Stack & HODL, mes frères.
June 19, 2022, 07:31:06 AM
Looking at the history of the mempool. There is a declining size of transaction spikes throughout this dump from 30k. My hope is that this might mean the supply of people willing to sell are becoming exhausted and only true hodlers remain.
Clutching at straws I know.
Clutching at straws I know.
June 19, 2022, 07:17:00 AM
These classics are some best reminders….
True hodlers made them for next gen of bitcoiners
June 19, 2022, 07:04:24 AM
GUH
June 19, 2022, 07:03:52 AM
Time to drink.
lucky you, sniffing glue is all i can afford now
I was sniffing gasoline for a while there but that got too expensive.
Jenkem for me
If that isn't capitulation I don't know what is.
June 19, 2022, 07:03:32 AM
June 19, 2022, 06:55:34 AM
Time to drink.
lucky you, sniffing glue is all i can afford now
I was sniffing gasoline for a while there but that got too expensive.
Jenkem for me
June 19, 2022, 06:55:23 AM
When gold prices (in dollars) soared from 70s stagflation, then crashed, was it smart to sell the top? OK, how do you know what the top is?
In gold’s extreme, extended bear market, after it started crashing, was it smart to sell at $800? $700? $600? Selling for $600 and later re-buying for $300, you could have doubled your gold holding.
...$500? $300? $260? Whoops! Selling for ~$260 (IIRC*) would have been mindrusting gold.
Holding gold is always safe, if your biggest concern is not to be stuck with less gold than you have already accumulated.
Holding BTC is always safe, if your biggest concern is not to be stuck with less BTC than you have right now.
* Numbers here are tossed off the top of my head to make a point. If someone corrects any errors as Jay corrected my recollection of when Slaying the Bearwhale occurred, then... eh. Here, at least, it will not change my point.
In gold’s extreme, extended bear market, after it started crashing, was it smart to sell at $800? $700? $600? Selling for $600 and later re-buying for $300, you could have doubled your gold holding.
...$500? $300? $260? Whoops! Selling for ~$260 (IIRC*) would have been mindrusting gold.
Holding gold is always safe, if your biggest concern is not to be stuck with less gold than you have already accumulated.
Holding BTC is always safe, if your biggest concern is not to be stuck with less BTC than you have right now.
* Numbers here are tossed off the top of my head to make a point. If someone corrects any errors as Jay corrected my recollection of when Slaying the Bearwhale occurred, then... eh. Here, at least, it will not change my point.
So you are saying investors should only accumulate gold or BTC to increase their portfolio? If you do not extract some profits from your gains and reinvest them in that same assets or something else then you are not an investor. You are more like a collector. Professional investors always circulate their money in the different asset classes. If you do not know what the bottom or upper limits are then follow the market sentiments.
If you think of yourself as an investor you must keep track of the market about what's going on. Many people think a bear market is a downside of our economy but wise investors knows this is their opportunity. You can get things with a high discount price in a bear market so buy when everyone is selling and start selling when everyone is buying. This is that simple if you do not know about price actions charts or fundamental analysis.
June 19, 2022, 06:51:40 AM
Time to drink.
lucky you, sniffing glue is all i can afford now
I was sniffing gasoline for a while there but that got too expensive.
June 19, 2022, 06:43:02 AM
Bitcoin is the solution.
The problem is the combination of the Fed / central banks and politics.
The problem is the combination of the Fed / central banks and politics.
June 19, 2022, 06:41:38 AM
Time to drink.
lucky you, sniffing glue is all i can afford now
June 19, 2022, 06:15:25 AM
Hit and bounced off of 20k but I'll take what we can get at the moment
June 19, 2022, 06:01:20 AM
June 19, 2022, 06:00:13 AM
Also price above 19.5 we need it back above 20k still. But it's a start.
We’ll see. I doubt we are anywhere close to a recovery, due to the flock of black swans which threaten to continue arriving. But who knows. This is Bitcoin, which turns around and rockets up or down without warning.
Absolutely, I'm not calling a bottom here but we need to go above 20k to have any hope of even a temporary bounce.
However, I do think it is possible that it does bottom, everyone, and I mean everyone believes that there are several large stupid companies out there that will 100% be liquidated very soon. While that does seem likely, these companies are opaque and we have no idea what is going on behind the scenes. They may not be as bad off as we think, or perhaps they are getting private bailouts in the background.
It’s Bitcoin right, anything can happen. And if we don’t get the promised liquidations there is going to be a lot of unhappy shorts/sellers out there who will need to adjust their strategy.
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