Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3370. (Read 26714890 times)

OgNasty, I recall that sometime around late April or early May, you explicitly warned that there would probably soon be a series of bull traps and fake recoveries.  Not searching for the post now, but you deserve credit for that prediction.  Will find it sometime.  I thought of that many times, when we repeatedly recovered from the $20ks to as high as $32k—then, when we got back above 200 WMA—then...


I hope that they liquidate Celsius.  A custodial “we hold all the keys—trust us” scam which, by the evidence, apparently manipulated our market downward for months?^*  Please, bearwhales, destroy this monster with extreme prejudice!

I DGAF about people who lose money in Celsius, because “not your keys”.  Let it be a lesson.  At least UST and LUNA holders had the plausible illusion of a decentralized, trustless, permissionless system; that was a lie, but people who believed it are only the innocent victims of a scam.  Celsius is explicitly centralized and custodial:  “Give us your money, and we will, um, ‘somehow’ give you a BTC yield on BTC that seems too good to be true for the very large volume of BTC in our system.  Trust us.”

No mercy!  Kill it with fire!


I think it’s not improbable that they do that often.  Their perverse incentives make it implausible that they never do that.  Human nature, etc.  (Newbies buying BTC on margin, take heed!)


Now that I am out of debt (with drastic realized losses near total wipeout), I admit that it’s not bad for Bitcoin if the market does some housecleaning.

Who cares if we crash very badly for awhile.  Strong hands will later benefit from a more robust, more reliable Bitcoin market.

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^* Yes, I admit a desire for revenge.  Why shouldn’t I?  If not for Celsius and a few others maliciously dragging BTC down, it is likely that I could have paid off my debt slowly—while never, ever selling any BTC.  They wrecked me; they cost me almost everything.  What goes around, comes around.  Condign retribution:  Foul up the BTC market, and you have nowhere left to stand when it’s trashed so badly that the ground suddenly falls out from under you.  If there is any justice in this, Celsius will be burnt to the ground—absolutely zeroed out.  If there is any justice.

Enjoy your time with your buddy, he might have to leave again shortly... 

About CB, I only yesterday saw the avatar when reading the WO on a cumputer I wasn't logged in to (I have it on ignore), and I litterally LOLed, well done!

Explanation

My primary desktop ticker is an oracle based on an average of two different price oracles.  The primary underlying oracle is, in turn, based on data feeds of Bitcoin pricing data from multiple price data publishers.  The underlying data is pretty sophisticated, and includes confidence intervals—very important, those confidence intervals!

I also have a CoinGecko ticker.  But by comparison, it is crude and very slow to update.  My primary ticker sometimes updates several times per second.

(Not naming names because this is all somewhere in altcoinland, in an environment I do not much trust.  Ping me if curious.  The primary oracle caused a cascade of wrongful liquidations by mispricing BTC at $5k in September 2021, due to a coincidence of simultaneous “errors” from two different price feed publishers who, due to “software bugs”, priced Bitcoin at exactly zero.  Zeroes severely drag down an average!  FWIW.)

I'm sorry to hear that. That explains why our channel force-closed. All your funds should be safe though. I suspect all your channels will get force-closed once the blockchain sync though.

Speaking of Lightning. I have invested in new hardware to start a new node. It's a NUC with Ryzen 5, 16 GB RAM and 1TB NVMe SSD. This time I'm running the node on Ubuntu 22.04 and Citadel.

The new node is actually up and running, but I'm waiting to close the channels and move the funds from my old node until I have physical access to it. It still needs some tinkering before I'm ready to make the move.

So far I have set up a hybrid mode, making my node accessible over both Tor and Clearnet. I've set up a VPN tunnel on a VPS, forwarding the lightning traffic to my node over Clearnet without revealing my IP. This guide was a lot of help doing so (I skipped the LNbits part).

It will be interesting to see if this new node will perform better than my old one, running over Clearnet.

@BobLawblaw, @cAPSLOCK, I will close our channel in the upcoming days, but I will open a new channel between us once I'm ready to make the move to the new node.

Semantic game, No True Scotsman, and an absurdity:  What you mean is that I am not a trader.  You are repudiating the whole concept of “buy and hold”.  (Also, you implicitly figure PnL in dollars—not in real money, i.e. BTC.  For my part, I sometimes spend BTC on investments to make more BTC.  Figuring PnL in a depreciating, perpetually devaluing currency is extremely stupid.)

You say “collector” as if there were something wrong with that.  It is funny, because I have called myself a “collector” in my own thoughts about investment strategies.  My explicit goal is to collect and to accumulate valuable things, and to keep them.

In stocks, would you call Warren Buffet “not an investor”?  Buffet is a damnfool about Bitcoin; he should stick to what he knows, and he does know stocks!  He is the most famous (and only most famous) investor who takes the extreme buy-and-hold approach to stocks.

I call the extreme buy-and-hold approach to investing:  If you buy something good, the best time to sell is never.  Selling is an admission that you made a bad call when you bought—either you bought too much of something that’s not good enough (so, reduce your exposure to it), or you bought something bad (get out! run away!).  It happens.  Nobody makes the right call on 100% of investment decisions.

Of course, it is not the only good approach.  But in my opinion, it is the only good approach that >99% of people can achieve.

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For an examine of polar extremes (not to exclude the middle), see also:

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For the record, for anyone interested in the postmortem of how I wrecked my own finances:  A major motive for me my fatal experiments with debt—a position that I explicitly called “shorting the dollar” at the time—was my desire to never sell anything, ever, except dollars which I love to sell.  Top priority:  Never spend BTC.  Lower priority:  Accumulate a basket of alts, without the ongoing necessity of trading back to BTC to take profits.  Collect more of everything—more, more, more of everything!—and use it all as the basis for (strategy not for public discussion) to generate dollar income paying down dollar debt as it depreciates.

“Buy appreciating assets with depreciating debt” is an excellent theory, which proved catastrophic in practice.  It would work, if I had (a) orders of magnitude higher capitalization to begin with, and (b) access to lending terms that are not insane for long-term debt.  Otherwise stated:  It would work, if I were Michael Saylor!  I am not Michael Saylor.  By crudely pretending that I was Saylor buying BTC with debt, I ruined myself financially.  Playing a children’s game of make-believe-I’m-Saylor with a cryptocurrency margin account is what got me dollhouse-sized finances.  Newbies, take heed:  You are also not Michael Saylor.

CB only gives the spread at the last book retrieval. I've considered adding some more info in there too but haven't had the time recently to really think about options.

I heard Celsius is talking to banks and can probably defend their position now.
Liquidated positions for BTC and ETH are steadily dropping so everything is calming down.

Seems like the big boys are having trouble liquidating Celsius the way they want to. You can see all the middle of the night high volume dumps where someone was attempting to manipulate the markets downward. A lot of talk that it’s exchanges trying to force their own customers to be liquidated. This market’s goal seems to be to liquidate every single long and short until all the leveraged traders are wiped out.

Aaaanddd it's gone 

Throwback to the last time we hit $20k.

Last time had much better memes.

Explanation

Hello, $20k.

Yes, I will make about 20 posts in a row if it starts making new milestones like that.

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Edit:  Damn it, Buddy.  The oracle price is just over $20k where I sit ($20,063).  Went as low as about $20,275 before it started to fall back...  Now $19,977 here.  Sigh, edit, edit.

That’s just being blindly contrarian.  Also, you are leaving out a few crucial steps.  Pointed omissions.

After $30k broke, many people thought that $25k would hold.  After that broke, most people took the 200 WMA line as an article of faith.  Why did you omit that?

After Bitcoin broke 200 WMA and the 2017 cycle top (even in nominal dollar terms, not adjusted for inflation!), then the people who thought $30k would hold are talking about $15k, or even below.

For my part, this does not make me pessimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term future.  See my comparison to the history of the gold market.  I see Bitcoin as digital gold.  Even gold can suffer an extreme, extended bear market much worse than I expect here; so, too, could Bitcoin.  It is realistic to acknowledge that as a possibility, and not improbable as things now stand.

I do think we can declare TA dead.  Declare 200 WMA dead as a reliable Bitcoin Bottom.  We have gone into a deep crash below 200 WMA for longer than prior precedents, such as the March 2020 flash-crash caused by Covid panic; and we have too low for too long to compare prior precedents for hovering just under/around 200 WMA (August/September 2015, or the days following the Covid panic crash).

That’s better for Bitcoin, in the long run.  Let’s stop with the juju, and refocus on long-term value fundamentals.

The bottom could already be in, now.  Or not.  I don’t care:  Either way, I believe in Bitcoin for the long term.  And I do know that Hopium is a dangerous drug.  Nothing hurts like false hope!

Called it:

Maybe we will now turn around.  Maybe.  Maybe not.

I want to get out in front of any further potential crashes, expect the unexpected, and deprive the bears who hate Bitcoin of any more chances for “I told you so.”  OK, they were right that we broke 200 WMA and the 2017 cycle top.  So what?  If it goes to $15k, or $10k, or whatever, I still expect someday to see my million-dollar Bitcoins.  It may take longer than I previously expected; but I don’t care, because I already said that I am in it for the long term.  My expectation is based on long-term value fundamentals, not on lines on a chart.

If the bottom is already in, take it as a bonus.

If not, then holding BTC now is like holding gold when it crashed spectacularly a few decades.  So what?

It’s gold.  Buy and hold.

I added the “W”.  You said “200 MA”.  It is a common mistake for newbies who don’t know the technical jargon.

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Edited to add:  It is the 200-week moving average, not a weekly moving average if calculated on daily prices as it apparently is on most sites discussing the 200 WMA for Bitcoin.  That is an important distinction, but to elaborate here is otiose.

Not sure what you fixed in that but WMA means Weekly Moving Average and that's exactly what I meant.

yup. glorious isnt it! 

havent felt like this since 2011 when i started

what a time to be alive

The previous cycle high was the *last* piece of TA that BTC chart had not violated previously. ... It was an almost religious symbol to some ppl.

Now that violation has happened, individuals have to make their decision... either say:

1. ' this indicates some serious imminent unknown, so BTC is broken in some way'

or  2. ' No form of TA applies anymore, so HODL as an act of pure faith'

Gold historical comparison is a helpful justification for (2), which is probably the line most WO posters would take.

On the other hand, somewhere on this stupid space rock (c) family homes get shelled nonstop, people are starving or run from bullets every day, while CT is crying it's fate in mass-hysterical manner using capital letters out to the world  
It seems to me that WO is still comparatively brave, and yes, i am aware that WO is a bunch of hodlers, while CT is mainly hordes of shitcoiners leverage-longing every dip in this bear market correction, just because some follower-rich moron called it out.
If one survived 2018/19 (sorry mindrust), then 2022 should be no more than meh to him/her.
That's why i suggest four self-slaps on the back of the head, in sync to spelling "HODL"